UFC heads to Philly
By Bodog.com
UFC 101 Betting Preview
They’re not officially the main event because there’s no title on the line. But everyone knows the Anderson Silva-Forest Griffin match is the focal point of this Saturday’s UFC 101 event at the Wachovia Center in Philadelphia.
Silva is considered the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world, but if you look at the odds of his recent matches (supplied below), you can tell that Silva’s competition level hasn’t been up to snuff. So he’s making the move up from middleweight to fight the former light heavyweight champ, Forrest Griffin – no stranger to delivering big upsets against the likes of Quinton Jackson and Shogun Rua. Griffin also has a knack for delivering action; his last two appearances in the Octagon earned Fight of the Night honors.
Silva’s other fight at light heavyweight lasted 61 seconds, as he destroyed James Irvin in front of a salivating cable TV audience at UFC Fight Night 14. Griffin is a bigger threat than Irvin to put Silva on the ground and neutralize The Spider’s deadly strikes. Silva remains the more likely man to win this bout, but Griffin’s size advantage and his dedication to training protect his betting value in this situation.
The lightweight title bout between champion BJ Penn and challenger Kenny Florian is another case of natural talent versus determination. In this case, however, Florian has only recently started moving up the UFC ladder and doesn’t have anything close to Griffin’s resume. Penn, on the other hand, is looking for redemption in his own weight class after losing to Georges St-Pierre at welterweight. This is his fight to lose.
The main card is top-heavy with winners from The Ultimate Fighter series, including TUF 7 champion Amir Sadollah facing WEC recruit Johny Hendricks, and TUF 3 middleweight champ Kendall Grove taking on UFC/Pancrase veteran Ricardo Almeida. Sadollah and Grove both possess the enhanced betting value for Saturday night that comes with participating in TUF training. Recent records and odds are below.
Middleweight: Kendall Grove (+130) vs. Ricardo Almeida (-160)
Mar. 7, 2009: Grove (-185) over Jason Day (+155) by first-round KO
June 21, 2008: Grove (+155) over Evan Tanner (-185) by split decision
Mar. 1, 2008: Jorge Rivera (+265) over Grove (-325) by first-round KO
Apr. 1, 2009: Almeida (-280) over Matt Horwich (+260) by unanimous decision
July 5, 2008: Patrick Cote (+125) over Almeida (-135) by split decision
Feb. 2, 2008: Almeida (NL) over Rob Yundt by first-round submission
Welterweight: Amir Sadollah (-115) vs. Johny Hendricks (-115)
June 21, 2008: Sadollah (+125) over C.B. Dollaway (-155) by first-round submission
Mar. 1, 2009, WEC: Hendricks (-300) over Alex Serdyukov (+240) by unanimous decision
Dec. 3, 2008, WEC: Hendricks (-370) over Justin Haskins (+340) by second-round TKO
Mar. 15, 2008, HDNet Fights: Hendricks (NL) over Richard Gamble by first-round submission
Light Heavyweight: Anderson Silva (-365) vs. Forrest Griffin (+285)
Apr. 18, 2009: Silva (-525) over Thales Leites (+325) by unanimous decision
Oct. 25, 2008: Silva (-800) over Patrick Cote (+500) by third-round TKO
July 19, 2008: Silva (-600) over James Irvin (+400) by first-round KO
Dec. 27, 2008: Rashad Evans (+120) over Griffin (-160) by third-round TKO
July 5, 2008: Griffin (+200) over Quinton Jackson (-260) by unanimous decision
Sept. 22, 2007: Griffin (+275) over Mauricio Rua (-345) by third-round submission
Lightweight title: BJ Penn (-280) vs. Kenny Florian (+220)
Jan. 31, 2009: Georges St-Pierre (-245) over Penn (+175) by fourth-round TKO
May 24, 2008: Penn (-230) over Sean Sherk (+180) by third-round TKO
Jan. 19, 2008: Penn (-280) over Joe Stevenson (+235) by second-round submission
Nov. 15, 2008: Florian (-185) over Joe Stevenson (+145) by first-round submission
Aug. 9, 2008: Florian (-145) over Roger Huerta (+135) by unanimous decision
Apr. 2, 2008: Florian (-210) over Joe Lauzon (+170) by second-round TKO
UFC 101: Declaration Betting Preview
By Brobury Sports
The ‘City of Brotherly Love’ hosts some of the world’s best MMA fighters this Saturday night.
Philly fight fans will have the pleasure of witnessing not one, but two main events. Middleweight Champion Anderson ‘The Spider’ Silva (-365) moves up in weight to take on former Light Heavyweight Champion Forrest Griffin (+285). In the second headliner, B.J. Penn (-275) puts his Lightweight Belt on the line against the red-hot Kenny Florian (+215).
Arguably the most skilled fighter in the UFC, Silva has looked anything but thrilled to be in the octagon over his last couple of bouts. He has won each of them easily; however, we haven’t seen the devastating knockouts that he displayed earlier on in the UFC. Some speculate that he might be a little bored with the lack of competition in the 185 pound division. This perhaps is the reason why he is also fighting at 205 as well, to stay interested and motivated.
Whereas Silva’s past couple of opponents appeared to be hesitant, it is unlikely that Griffin will be pussy-footing around once they ‘get it on’. Griffin is a fan favorite because of his biggest asset: his heart. Even though he lacks the punching power of others in the light heavyweight division, Griffin never gives up and won’t be afraid to push the action against Silva. However, his heart and his natural size may be the only advantageous he has over Silva.
With elite Muay-Thai skills, Silva is quite possibly the most lethal striker in the UFC. Whether it be by fist, elbow, shin or knee; Silva hits with pinpoint accuracy and has one-strike knockout power. Because of this, Griffin will need to take Silva to the ground and try to grind out the upset. Problem is, Silva holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and can more than hold his own on the ground.
Although underdog bettors cashed-in big with Griffin in the past as he upset both Mauricio Rua and ’Rampage’ Jackson, pulling another surprising victory this Saturday would be the most impressive yet. Look for Silva to feel Forrest out in the first round and than lay the wood in the second.
Prediction: Silva 2nd Round TKO
In the nightcap, B.J. Penn looks to successfully defend his title and bounce back from his one-sided loss to Georges St-Pierre last January. In that fight, Penn was dominated like never before but it should be noted that he moved up a weight class to take on the much bigger welterweight champion.
A well-rounded fighter, Penn is especially adept on the ground, thanks to his world class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and submission skills. However, don’t be surprised if he remains on his feet and looks to trade blows with Florian. If he does so, this will give Florian his best shot at pulling an upset.
Since appearing on The Ultimate Fighter’s inaugural season, Florian has improved his fight game as much as any fighter in the UFC. He has only lost one time, back in October of 2006 to then champion Sean Sherk. Currently, Florian is riding a six fight win streak.
‘K-Flo’ mirrors Penn as a fighter in the respect that he has great Brazilin Jiu-Jitsu but can also mix it up on his feet. If you have any questions about his versatility, just take a look at his last six victories: three have come by submission while two came by TKO (the third was a unanimous decision).
Although Penn has been around for what seems like an eternity, reportedly he is in the best shape of his career which tells you he is looking to silence his critics following his embarrassing GSP loss. Florian at +215 definitely wreaks of value but Penn is just too good.
Prediction: Penn by Unanimous Decision
UFC 101 Picks and Predictions
by T.O. Whenham
It's time for the UFC to start their second 100 events. UFC 101, with the always unnecessary name being 'Declaration' this time, will take place on Saturday, August 8 in Philadelphia at the Wachovia Center, the home of the Flyers and the 76ers. This is a big step backwards from the mega-card that was UFC 100 but that's to be expected - not every card can feature the two of the three biggest stars currently in the organization like the last one did in Lesnar and S. Pierre. As is usually the case, though, this card offers several interesting matches, and more than a few good betting opportunities. Here's a look at how it all breaks down in my eyes (all odds are from Bodog):
B.J. Penn (-270) vs. Kenny Florian (+210) - This one is billed as the main event, though the Silva fight is far more compelling in my eyes. This is Penn's first fight since he lost to Georges St. Pierre, so he needs to bounce back strong and establish himself firmly as the class of the lightweights. It won't be easy for him - Florian is the best lightweight he has faced in a long time, and he is riding a six fight winning streak. Penn has worked hard on his stamina recently, but I still think that Florian has better fitness and will gain an advantage the longer the fight goes. Florian is far more prone to over-committing and leaving himself open to exploitation, though. Still, I think the fight is close - much closer than the odds represent. That puts the value on Florian, and it means that I am uncharacteristically going to start off with an underdog.
Pick: Kenny Florian.
Anderson Silva (-500) vs. Forrest Griffin (+300) - Silva is, in my mind, the most naturally gifted fighter in the UFC. Unfortunately, through a combination of weak opponents and a frustrating conservative streak he has failed to show it in his last few matches. In fact, he has been incredibly boring. This fight is a bit of a strange one. Silva is the middleweight champion, but he lacks a current strong opponent in that division, so he has moved up to light heavyweight to face Griffin here. Griffin is among the best fighters he has faced, and he won't be afraid to stand toe to toe and slug it out. Silva has a clear technical edge in almost every aspect, though. This fight will be no pushover, and the price on Silva is probably a bit high, but I can't justify a pick on Griffin.
Pick: Anderson Silva.
Amir Sadollah (-120) vs. Johnny Hendricks (-115) - Sadollah was the unexpected winner of the Ultimate Fighter 7. Hendricks is making his UFC debut after coming over from WEC. Normally I don't pick a guy making his UFC debut. This fight is a total too-up, though. Sadollah is coming back from injury and hasn't fought for a year. Hendricks is a strong wrestler, and he can match up well when they are on their feet as well. I'll take Hendricks because of the slight value he offers.
Pick: Johnny Hendricks.
Ricardo Almeida (-160) vs. Kendall Grove (+130) - I'm surprised by the odds here. Almeida has decided to drop from middleweight to welterweight after this fight, so it seems unlikely that he will be completely focused here. Grove is a bigger fighter, and he has a big advantage when the fighters are on their feet. Almeida has an advantage on the ground, but I don't think that it is big enough to justify the price.
Pick: Kendall Grove.
Josh Neer (-250) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (+190) - Neither of these guys is particularly established as a real power. The fact that they are on the main card here is a sign of how weak this event is beyond the top two fights. Both guys match up reasonably well except for one clear difference - I think Neer is very much the superior when the fighters are on the ground. That gives him enough of an edge to justify the price.
Pick: Josh Neer.
Aaron Riley (-160) vs. Shane Nelson (+130) - This is a rematch of a fight that Nelson won at UFC 96 in a terrible TKO decision. Riley has a slight skill advantage and he'll be very hungry for revenge. That's enough of an edge.
Pick: Aaron Riley.
Tamdan McCrory (-175) vs. John Howard (+145) - This fight should be very good. Howard has won his only two UFC fights, and McCrory has a winning record. This one could be brutal, and I expect it to go the distance. I think McCrory has a skill advantage in most regards, and the style tips in his favor, so I expect him to win that decision.
Pick: Tamdan McCrory.
Thales Leites (-525) vs. Alessio Sakara (+325) - I'm not sure how Leites fell from grace to the extent that he is only on the preliminary card. He's a much better fighter than that. Sakara is solid, too, but I think that Leites has a pretty clear edge. This one will end by submission, and I wouldn't be surprised if it happened in the first round.
Pick: Thales Leites.
Matt Riddle (-165) vs. Dan Cramer (+135) - These guys were both in TUF 7, and neither has lost in the UFC. They won't be able to surprise each other, so it comes down to who has better skills. I think that that is Riddle.
Pick: Matt Riddle.
Danillo Villefort (-180) vs. Jesse Lennox (+150) - Like I said, I never like picking a guy making his UFC debut. I have no choice here, though - both guys are first-timers. They have both come over from WEC. They match up quite well. That means I don't really understand why Lennox is such a heavy underdog. In fact, I think he is the more all-round fighter, and he is better on his feet. That means value.
Pick: Jesse Lennox.
Docsports.com
Silva favored at UFC 101
By SBGGlobal.com
UFC 101: Declaration has a total of 11 bouts on the card for Saturday, August 8th from Philadelphia, headlined by Forrest Griffin facing Anderson Silva and B.J. Penn taking on Kenny Florian. Both of these fights should be interesting as Silva is moving up in weight to face Griffin while Penn is moving back down to the lightweight division.
UFC 101 odds have Silva more than a 3-1 favorite over Griffin while Penn is better than a 2-1 choice against Florian. The battle between Silva and Griffin is definitely one-sided in terms of UFC 101 odds but Silva is not a guaranteed winner. Silva has looked disinterested in his last two fights and not nearly as impressive. If he is not in top form then he could be in real trouble against Griffin. An upset against a heavily favored opponent would be nothing new for Griffin in UFC odds. He defeated Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua as a big underdog in the past.
In the other feature bout on Saturday in UFC 101, it is Kenny Florian an underdog against B.J. Penn but Florian has a real chance to win as he has been pointing to this fight for a long time. Florian could be the most improved fighter in the UFC in the past few years. The fight against Penn should be a great one since Penn is coming off a humiliating loss to George St. Pierre. Penn has more talent than Florian but Florian is the more intelligent fighter.
The two feature bouts are not the only fights on the UFC 101 betting card for Saturday. There are three other bouts on the televised card and six on the preliminary card. The other three PPV fights that will be shown have Amir Sadollah a -125 favorite against Johny Hendricks, Josh Neer a -220 favorite against Kurt Pellegrino and Ricardo Almeida is -165 against Kendall Grove.
The preliminary card in UFC 101 has six bouts. It is Aaron Riley -165 against Shane Nelson, Matt Riddle -175 vs. Dan Cramer, George Sotiropoulos favored against George Roop, Danillo Villefort -210 against Jesse Lennox, Tamdan McCrory -200 against John Howard and Thales Leites is a -350 favorite against Alessio Sakara.