UFC 102 Preview & Picks: Couture Has Home-Field Advantage
By JASON LOGAN
Home-field advantage is something football bettors lean on when making their weekly picks.
But this Saturday night, mixed martial arts fans can also capitalize on that handicapping tool when Randy Couture faces Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira at UFC 102. Couture will climb into the octagon in front of a home-town crowd at the Rose Garden in Portland, Oregon.
“We worked hard to get the sport sanctioned in the state of Oregon and now to see the biggest show headed there is pretty exciting,” Couture told reporters this week.
The MMA veteran is a native of the Pacific Northwest and calls Oregon his second home. He’s established his famous training camp, Team Quest, in Oregon and lived in Corvallis for 14 years while working as a wrestling coach at Oregon State University.
According to renowned MMA linesmaker Joey Oddessa, that home-field advantage is a big reason why the former UFC heavyweight champion is a -175 favorite against Nogueira (+145). He believes that, outside of the motivational factor, Couture will benefit from local judges trying to score Saturday’s bout.
“With the inconsistency of the judges in both the UFC and WEC (World Extreme Cagefighting) and how they interpret the action in the cage, you would expect Oregon officials to be more inclined to score close rounds to the crowd favorite.”
Oddessa has seen this trend in MMA and boxing before, most recently in last week’s light welterweight title bout between Paul Malignaggi and Juan Diaz. Malignaggi appeared to win the late rounds in an even fight but when the decision went to the judges’ scorecards, Diaz was given the victory in front of his hometown of Houston, Texas.
That advantage is a nice insurance policy for anyone forking out the extra money to play Couture. However, the 46-year-old fighter is a legit favorite even without the friendly fans.
He’s coming off a devastating loss to Brock Lesnar at UFC 91 but has shown a tendency to rebound from tough defeats. Couture was knocked out by Chuck Liddell back in 2006 but followed that loss with two impressive wins, both of which he was a sportsbook underdog.
“Randy Couture is a superb athlete and fighter,” says Oddessa. “Just when people count him out, he comes out and surprises. Historically he fights better in the underdog role, but it's difficult to determine how much an effect a loss has on fighter until his next outing.”
Nogueira is also trying to come back from a loss. He was handled by Frank Mir at UFC 92, losing his UFC heavyweight interim title. The promotion later revealed the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu artist was fighting on an injured knee and was battling a staph infection.
Oddessa believes those injuries and others are just signs that Nogueira is breaking down after 37 professional bouts. During his time in PRIDE, “Minotauro” was involved in numerous wars and, despite his age (33), is the more weathered fighter heading into the weekend.
“I think a couple years ago, Nogueira would have been a clear favorite to beat Randy Couture,” says Oddessa.
“At this stage of both fighters’ careers, Randy Couture belongs as the wagering favorite. The venue alone plays a huge factor in favor of Couture. If the bout goes to a decision and it's close, I can't imagine Couture not getting the nod.”
Fight fans can watch UFC 102 live on pay-per-view. The main card is scheduled to begin at 10 p.m. ET.
UFC 102 Picks:
Randy Couture (-175) over Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira: With two savvy fighters, I expect Couture by decision.
Keith Jardine (-150) over Thiago Silva: Jardine has been in there with the best in the sport. He won’t see anything different from Silva.
Chris Leben (-150) over Josh Rosholt: Regardless of focus or training (or steroids), Leben was born a heavy-handed striker and can take a punch.
Demian Maia (+145) over Nate Marquardt: Maia is a dangerous man on the mat. If Nate gets careless trying to land a big shot, he’s in trouble.
Krzysztof Soszynsk (+160) over Brandon Vera: Vera is one of the most overrated fighters in the UFC. Soszynsk is bringing more to the table than most expect.
UFC 102 Predictions
by T.O. Whenham
The UFC invades the Pacific Northwest for the first time with UFC 102, which takes places in Portland on Saturday. Unlike many of the UFC events this one doesn't have a catchy title. I'd suggest that they could call it 'UFC 102: The Lamest Main Event Ever'. I find it hard to get excited about the heavyweight tilt that tops the card, but there is still some intrigue, and some betting opportunities all over the card. Here's a look at how I see it all playing out with my UFC 102 predictions.
Main Card
Randy Couture (-180) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+150) - Five years ago this would have been an instant classic - a duel between legends on top of their game. Lately, though, we have seen the sport catch up to both of these guys, and this fight reeks of a desperate attempt to claim a last shot at the heavyweight title. That's especially sad, because I don't see how either of these guys will be even remotely competitive with Brock Lesnar if and when they do get that shot. Both guys are coming off of losses in which they looked far less than stellar - The Natural to Brock Lesnar at UFC 91, and Minotauro to Frank Mir at UFC 92.
It's hard to extrapolate from that who is in better form - especially since both fights were in top form so long ago. By doing a little trigonometry I come up with Couture - he looked better against his opponent than Nogueira did, and Lesnar proved that he was far better than Mir. Couture also is better when they are standing up, and a better wrestler. If Nogueira can get it to the ground quickly and use his jiu jitsu then Couture could be in trouble, but I don't see it. Couture will win and get a title shot in a fight we really don't need to see, and this could be the end for Nogueira.
Pick: Randy Couture.
Keith Jardine (-140) vs. Thiago Silva (+110) - These guys don't have main event appeal, but the matchup is far more compelling. Both guys like to stand up and kick, so this one is going to be a war. Both guys are coming off a loss - Jardine in a close decision to Quinton Jackson, while Silva suffered his first career loss in a brutal first round knockout from Lyoto Machida. This matchup is very close, so you have to look where you can for an edge. I think Jardine was more impressive last time out by a wide margin, and I think Silva could be a bit tentative coming back from that last knockout. If he is even a little tentative then the shifty Jardine will exploit it.
Pick: Keith Jardine.
Chris Leben (-135) vs. Jake Rosholt (+105) - Something seems a bit strange with this one. Rosholt made his UFC debut last time out, and he looked terrible in the loss. A lot of guys would get shuffled out after that, but instead Rosholt gets a promotion against a better opponent on the main card of this event. That makes so little sense that you have to think that Dana White and company see more in him than was obvious from that fight. Despite the fact I like Leben, then, I am going to ride a hunch and take the underdog.
Pick: Jake Rosholt.
Nate Marquardt (-175) vs. Demian Maia (+145) - Maia is undefeated in 10 career fights, including five in the UFC, but he's taking a serious step up in class here. The winner of this fight is likely to be right behind Dan Henderson in the line of fighters waiting for a shot at Anderson Silva. It's a very well-conceived fight - both guys have similar styles and are both at their best on the ground. Handicapping this one creates an interesting situation. Who do I think will win? Probably Marquardt. Who is the better bet? Definitely Maia. Over the long term I think he would win enough to make a pretty profit at this price.
Pick: Demian Maia.
Brandon Vera (-210) vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (+170) - These guys are opposites - Vera is a muay thai fighter who isn't at his best on the ground, while Soszynski is a strong grappler who is less impressive as a boxer. Perhaps my favorite thing when it comes to handicapping MMA is finding an underdog who is a good grappler against a stand up guy. Soszynski is taking a step up in class, but he hasn't lost yet in the UFC, and Vera looks better the weaker his opponent is. Time to take another gamble.
Pick: Krzysztof Soszynski.
Preliminary Card
Ed Herman (-135) vs. Aaron Simpson (+105) - Both these guys are replacements for fighters that would have made a far more interesting fight. Herman is more experienced, and his style is more likely to be able to control the fight.
Pick: Ed Herman.
Gabriel Gonzaga (-500) vs. Chris Tuchscherer (+300) - Tuchscherer is a UFC virgin. Those can never be trusted. Gonzaga is far too good for the preliminary card. This is a no-brainer.
Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga.
Mike Russow (-285) vs. Justin McCully (+225) - Russow is another UFC virgin. He's obviously well-regarded given the odds, but McCully is a solid wrestler. We've been taking shots with underdogs on this card, so let's do it again.
Pick: Justin McCully.
Todd Duffee (-175) vs. Tim Hague (+145) - Both guys are strikers that don't make a habit of letting a fight end in a decision. Duffee is making his UFC debut, so yet again I'll take an underdog. Remember this card the next time I take all the chalk.
Pick: Tim Hague.
Mark Munoz (-250) vs. Nick Catone (+190) - Munoz will wear down Catone, take him to the ground, and bring this one to a boring end.
Pick: Mark Munoz.
Docsports.com
Getting a Grip on MMA and UFC Betting Trends
by Richard Gardner
Although betting on basketball, baseball and football is still well ahead of mixed martial arts in terms of volume, there’s no denying the recent surge in popularity of MMA – thanks in large part to the massive marketing machine behind the Ultimate Fighting Championship.
MMA betting has already surpassed NASCAR, which has been on the decline for a few years. And this may come as a surprise to a few fans of the sport, but these days UFC betting volume is 60 to 70 percent greater than boxing.
With only a few super-fights a year staged in attractive locations like Las Vegas, top draws like Floyd Mayweather and Oscar De La Hoya haven’t done much to bring boxing up to the level of betting it once enjoyed. And now that the Golden Boy has retired from the sport, boxing fans will have to look to fights like the upcoming Nov. 14 bout between Manny Pacquiao and Miguel Cotto. Neither of those guys draws much of an American audience, but over at the Bodog Sportsbook we expect to see a decent amount of action regardless of their mass U.S. appeal (or lack thereof).
Make no mistake, the UFC knows marketing and as such it is not afraid to go into the betting ring the same night as the Pacquiao-Hatton fight. Case in point? UFC 105.
UFC president Dana White has agreed to show UFC 105 via tape-delay on Spike TV that very night. Which brings to mind the rising interest in the undercard fights – another trend in MMA betting that we’re seeing at Bodog.
In boxing, the undercards are usually not televised and therefore forgotten about and not seen on by a majority of bettors, as they wait for the main event. In MMA, the betting is spread out among all the undercards.
Overall, there has been only one month this year where our boxing handle was higher than MMA and that was May, which saw a big boxing fight between Pacquiao, the pound-for-pound king, and Ricky Hatton, among others.
White also has UFC 103 scheduled for Sept. 19 (the undercard on Spike with no commercial interruptions, the main events on pay-per-view), which just so happens to be Mayweather’s return to the ring against Juan Manuel Marquez.
In an attempt to fight back, boxing promoters are hoping to get more views of the Mayweather-Marquez matchup by showing the bout live in about 170 theaters nationwide, with ticket prices expected to be about $15.
It’ll be interesting to see how that marketing strategy stands up at the end of the night. The rise and profitability of pay-per-view ended what was a long-time U.S. trend of showing big fights in theaters. Among the last fights widely shown in them was Sugar Ray Leonard's "no mas" victory over Roberto Duran in November 1980.
So other than fancy marketing backed by a ballsy president, what has been the key to UFC’s success? Besides talent and audience reach, I’d have to say frequency. The UFC usually has a great card every month or so.
Take this Saturday’s UFC 102, with the main fight pitting UFC heavyweight and light heavyweight champ Randy Couture against former PRIDE heavyweight and UFC interim heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Couture has opened as the sizable favorite despite the fact he is 46, and the early public action seems to be all over him. Both guys enter off a loss.
Good thing more people didn't read this, Couture took a beating.
Good thing more people didn't read this, Couture took a beating.
Had a few friends that went and said it was a great fight.