UFC 104 Preview and Picks
By Jason Logan
Patience in a virtue.
Just ask Lyoto Machida. Or better yet, ask his opponents.
The UFC light heavyweight champion is perhaps the most patient fighter to ever climb in the cage. The Brazilian mixed martial arts star has taken this Zen approach all the way to the top of the sport.
Machida is a ghost inside the octagon. He doesn't get hit, he doesn't make mistakes, he doesn't get frustrated and I'm not even sure he's broken a sweat en route to a sterling 15-0 professional record. I'm not even sure he sweats. If he does, it's nothing but ice water.
And when his foes can't stand any more of his impenetrable defense, they make a mistake. A frustrated gasp or swing for the fences. That's when Michida lands a perfect and calculated strike that makes lightning seem like mood lighting.
The Karate and Jiu Jitsu expert, who has never lost a round in seven UFC fights, is considered by most analysts to be one of – if not – the best fighter in MMA. That consensus is the reason the man known as “The Dragon” is a hefty -500 favorite when he faces fellow Brazilian Mauricio "Shogun" Rua at UFC 104 in Los Angeles Saturday night.
“It's tough to find any significant weaknesses in Machida's game because he has yet to show any,” says renowned MMA linesmaker Joey Oddessa. “No one has figured out how to frustrate him, or have an answer to his karate-styled offense and great takedown defense.”
Oddessa opened his numbers with Machida priced at his current stand and has seen the line rise as high as -550. However, he notes, there have been more bets coming in on Rua in the last few days. Oddessa believes the UFC's promotional preview for the event is swaying the more casual MMA bettors, who have been drawn in by the UFC's efforts to build up Saturday's bouts as an evenly-contested card.
“I usually find that when you see massive media exposure portraying a fight as extremely close and the odds are extremely wide, that the favorite ends up being the right side,” says Oddessa. “It's the promoters' job to make the viewers expect a close fight, but the promoters aren't booking the wagers.”
Rua is no run-of-the-mill +300 underdog, though. The former PRIDE champion has one of the most impressive resumes in MMA. He has built an 18-3 professional record with signature wins over Quinton Jackson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Alistair Overeem and most recently Chuck Liddell at UFC 97 in April.
Like most PRIDE fighters making the jump from the ring to the UFC cage, Rua stumbled in his first two matches with the promotion. He lost his UFC debut to former light heavyweight champ Forrest Griffin in September 2007, then was sluggish in a third-round TKO victory over veteran Marc Coleman at UFC 93 this past January. Even his win over Liddell is tainted after Liddell's dramatic decline in recent bouts.
The biggest knock against Rua heading into UFC 104 is his stamina. In his 21 professional fights, he has gone the distance just twice (both wins). His most recent marathon was three-round decision victory over Kazuhiro Nakamura in 2006. Now, with the light heavyweight title on the line, Rua may have to go five full rounds with an extremely-careful fighter that has won eight of his 15 matches by the judges' scorecards.
“Gym rumors and prefight training videos are the only thing I have to go on as far as Rua's conditioning improving,” says Oddessa. “Five full rounds are unchartered waters for both fighters, but more than half of Machida's victories in his undefeated career have come by way of decision.”
Oddessa believes that if Rua is to have a chance at the upset, he'll need to take the fight to the ground - citing Tito Ortiz's late third-round triangle-armbar from the guard which Machida escaped to hang on to the decision win at UFC 84 in May of last year. Both men are black belts in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and getting Machida to the mat is easier said than done.
Rua has had a sense of urgency to live up to his billing in PRIDE. After his first two UFC bouts, there was an aura of desperation when he fought Liddell – on a card aptly named “Redemption” no less. He was willing to stand and trade with one of the sport's best strikers, went for quick submission attempts and nearly had his head taken off while carelessly trying to shoot. According to Oddessa, desperation doesn't always make a fighter dangerous.
“When you fight desperate, you fight reckless,” he says. “Sure you can get lucky fighting with a sense of urgency. But against a guy as well rounded and technically sound as Machida, odds are it's going to get you beat.”
UFC 104 picks
Machida vs. Rua: Machida -500
He's too slick. The Machida era continues in the UFC light heavyweight division.
Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell: Velasquez -300
The kid is dangerous and will keep rolling via KO victory.
Gleison Tibau vs. Josh Neer: Tibau -135
Tibau is the stronger of the two and Neer is just too iffy coming in as a late replacement.
Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher: Fisher +200
Stevenson has plateaued in the lightweight division. Fisher is still hungry and a lot of fun to watch.
Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida: Johnson -365
Johnson is a big, nasty welterweight that will KO Yoshida and his attempt to wrap up the American.