UFC 110 Betting: Nogueira To Much For Young Velasquez
By David Andrest
Cain Velasquez is viewed by many pundits as a future champion in the UFC’s heavyweight division.
The two-time All-American wrestling standout holds a perfect record of 7-0 as a professional and enters this weekend in search of a victory in his first test against top-level competition.
Velasquez, who has laid waste to the mid-tier of the division, will face arguably the second-best heavyweight in the sport’s history when he steps into the octagon against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+105) in the main event at UFC 110 at the Acer Arena in Sydney, Australia.
Velasquez enters the fight on the heels of an impressive victory over Ben Rothwell at UFC 104, a fight which didn't show anything new from the young star.
Perhaps the most telling bout of his young career came at UFC 99 against French kick boxer Cheick Kongo. Velasquez did an outstanding job controlling position throughout the fight. However, a beaten and tired Kongo still managed to drop Velasquez a number of times.
That bout also brought into question Velasquez's punching power. After successfully landing 251 shots to a prone Kongo, Velasquez’s strikes served as more of a point-scoring mechanism than inflicting fight-ending damage.
Nogueira is coming off an dominating performance against veteran Randy Couture at UFC 102 in August. Entering that match, many doubted the amount of fight Nogueira had left in him. After 15 minutes of battle against Couture, it was clear that Nogueira was as hungry as ever.
Over the course of 10 years Nogueira's record stands at 32-5-1. He has continuously competed against the best heavyweights while in their prime. And it should be noted that of his five career losses, four are by decision.
Nogueira possesses the best jiu jitsu in the heavyweight division as well as an uncanny ability to absorb punishment. It is his ability to function under fire that sets him apart from his contemporaries.
As Saturday's card draws closer, the difference between Velasquez and Nogueira becomes increasingly clear. This will be a battle between youth and athleticism versus skill and experience. While Velasquez holds a minor conditioning advantage, Nogueira’s gas has never come into question.
Velasquez has a clear but limited path to victory. He must do his best to push the pace and keep continuous pressure on Nogueira. Velasquez will use his wrestling in an attempt to control the tempo and hold a positional advantage over the veteran. If Velasquez proves successful in taking Nogueira down, look for him to stay busy while remaining cautious in Nogueira's guard.
Unfortunately for Velasquez, his path to victory plays right into the strengths of Nogueira. Big Nog possesses one of the most dangerous and active guards in all of mixed martial arts. His submission game is among the best the sport has ever seen and has secured 20 of his 32 victories.
If Velasquez finds himself in Nogueira's guard, he runs the risk of being caught in a submission with every punch he throws.
Neither man has a history of one-punch knockout power but Nogueira holds the decided advantage in the standup. Nogueira's technical boxing is vastly superior to that of Velasquez.
Velasquez will attempt to test himself on his feet as the fight opens. Nogueira's advantage will show itself early and Velasquez will do his best to get the fight to the ground. Nogueira will successfully execute a submission from the bottom position or during a transition sometime before the final bell.
Fight fans can watch the action live on Pay-Per-View from the Acer Arena in Sydney, Australia. Saturday's card is scheduled to start at 10 p.m. ET.
UFC 110 picks:
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Cain Velasquez: Nogueira (+105) – Velasquez is not safe anywhere in this fight. Nogueira is superior in too many areas that matter. Not to mention he has fought and beaten much better fighters.
Michael Bisping vs. Wanderlei Silva: Silva (-140) - Bisping’s entire night will rely on his ability to stay away from the big punch. The temptation to test his stand up against Silva will prove too much for the young Brit as he will find himself counting the ceiling tiles in the Acer Arena.
George Sotiropoulos vs. Joe Stevenson: Stevenson (-240) - This fight marks a huge step up in competition for Sotiropoulos. Stevenson has been a top-level lightweight for years and has only improved since moving to Greg Jackson’s camp. I look for Stevenson to take advantage during the scrambles to secure a victory.
Ryan Bader vs. Keith Jardine: Bader (-142) - Bader is an aggressive young fighter with heavy hands. Jardine has shown obvious issues against aggressive fighters with KO power. Look for Bader to attack early and often.
UFC 110 Preview
By Stan Lisowski
In what well may be the last stands for several of the UFC's fighters, matchmaker Joe Silva has put together a card made up of fast-rising stars and solid veterans, (some legendary), that will be squaring off against each other Saturday night on PPV from Australia.
In some of the prelims, Chris Lytle, Stephan Bonnar, and Keith Jardine will look to avoid losses that may spell the end of their tenures in the UFC. Jardine's situation is particularly precarious as 3 of his last 4 losses have been by knockouts in the 1st round. He goes up against Ryan Bader, a 3x Pac 10 wrestling champion with power in his punches. True, the step up in class for Bader is great, but given Jardine's glass chin and lack of experience against a wrestler of this magnitude, there is little reason to wonder why Bader is a -160 favorite in this fight.
Former PRIDE star Mirko Filopovic is also on this card and looking to come back from yet another defeat in the UFC. Once considered one of the most feared, violent strikers in the world, Cro-Cop is a shell of his former self. He has however made a significant change in his training regime, going to Amsterdam to work at the well-respected Vos Gym with the hopes that the change will help with his current career down-spiral. Unfortunately, while training recently, the former Croatian special forces policeman suffered a nasty cut above his eye that required stitches. And even though Filopovic will be facing a fighter who is literally a last-minute replacement for Ben Rothwell, who had to back out of this encounter due to illness, Cro-Cop's sliced eyebrow has to be a concern just days before the fight. If he doesn't win this bout, UFC fans will more than likely see the last of Mirko in the octagon.
Onto the headliners.
ANTONIO NOGUEIRA -105 vs. CAIN VELASQUEZ -125
It is widely felt by many that Minotauro, or Big Nog, as Nogueira is referred by, might be one of the best submission experts in MMA. His resume includes a who's who of fighters, several of which are in the Hall of Fame. Nogueira has 32 wins in his career with 20 of those victories coming by submission. He holds black belts in Judo and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, while his boxing game is much under-rated. It will be here that Big Nog might need to keep this fight, standing up and striking, as Velasquez is a bruising, relentless, 2x time All-American wrestler but does not possess the boxing experience of his opponent. Even if Velasquez can get this on the ground, Nogueira's guard and submission techniques will be the toughest test yet for the undefeated 27 year old from California. While many feel that Cain Velasquez may be the future of the heavyweight division, nothing has really prepared him for the likes of Minotauro. PICK-NOGUEIRA
MICHAEL BISPING +135 vs. WANDERLEI SILVA -165
Silva is another veteran of the MMA wars with 43 fights in his career, many of which were against championship caliber opponents. He is on a run though where he needs to make a statement with a big win as he is just 1-4 in his last 5 bouts. Dropping to middleweight class at 185 might be huge for Silva as reportedly in his training, he is as strong, if not stronger than his former 205 fighting weight. Bisping is a former TUF Champion who is off a lackluster victory in his last fight while being a highlight reel knockout in the bout prior to that. It is the latter encounter that makes Bisping a worrisome proposition, as his stick and jab circling style got him in a lot of trouble against Dan Henderson, and his lack of power punching may get him into trouble against the Axe Murderer Saturday night. Silva should want this to be a brawl, from start to finish as he is fully aware that Bisping can not hurt him with strikes. Eventually his leg kicks will stop Bisping from circling the ring and from there it might get ugly. Wanderlei is a desperate fighter in this bout and that spells trouble for The Count. PICK-SILVA
JOE STEVENSON -245 vs. GEORGE SOTIROPOULOS +195
Since Stevenson has joined Greg Jackson's Team Jackson in Albuquerque, Joe Daddy has been training harder, fighting better, and has been most impressive with wins over Nate Diaz and a complete destruction of Spencer Fisher in back-to-back victories. Prior to that, Stevenson fought some of the best fighters the UFC offers in Diego Sanchez, Kenny Florian, and BJ Penn. And while it is true that those bouts ended in losses for the 27-year old father of 4, it is mentioned because native Aussie Sotiropoulis has fought no one near the fighters Stevenson has and this is obviously his biggest bout of his life. Stevenson is the more accomplished wrestler and if he can get within the Australian's reach, he should have little difficulty with imposing his will on the much less experienced fighter. PICK-STEVENSON