UFC 111 Matchups: Carwin vs. Mir Odds & Picks
The co-main event of Saturday’s UFC 111: St. Pierre vs. Hardy event is for the UFC Interim Heavyweight Championship when Shane Carwin faces Frank Mir.
Mir enters the fight as the clear favorite with a betting line of -170 with Carwin given a line of +140 according to online sports book SPORTSBETTING.com. Here is a closer look at both fighters heading into this bout, which will take place from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey at 10PM ET on Pay Per-View.
Frank Mir (13-4):
Strengths: A former UFC Heavyweight and Interim Heavyweight Champion, Frank Mir has an impressive resume due to his slick submission skills. He is one of the top submission fighters in the world and in the heavyweight division. Over the last few years, Mir has also drastically improved his striking to make himself an even more dangerous fighter. His submission win over Cheick Kongo at UFC 107 was set up by a powerful hook that caught Kongo flush. Mir also was the first to stop Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in a fight back at UFC 92.
Weaknesses: Mir has struggled against big and strong fighters like Brock Lesnar. Lesnar was able to get Mir to the ground and control his arms while unleashing a plethora of strikes to stop the fight. Carwin is of similar size and similar power, but his wrestling skills are not as strong. How Mir is able to handle Carwin’s size will be a big key in this fight.
Last Five Fights:
First round Submission win over Cheick Kongo at UFC 107 on Dec. 12, 2009
Second round TKO loss to Brock Lesnar at UFC 100 on July 11, 2009
Second round TKO win over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira at UFC 92 on Dec. 27, 2008
First round submission win over Brock Lesnar at UFC 81 on Feb. 2, 2008
First round submission win over Antoni Hardonk at UFC 74 on Aug. 25, 2007
Shane Carwin (11-0):
Strengths: Carwin is just a mountain of a man that is stacked with muscles. He has great punching power, which had led to all three of his UFC wins and he has a wrestling background where he appeared in the Division II national championship three times as a heavyweight in college. Carwin hasn’t had a fight in the UFC go longer than 91 seconds as he has quickly disposed of his competition.
Weaknesses: It is hard to say what Carwin’s weaknesses are because he has dominated his UFC fights thus far. But, a true indication of where Carwin’s talent level is will be easier to decipher when he is in a fight where he is pushed more than one round or put in an adverse situation. A good example is Houston Alexander. He was a light heavyweight that started his career with two quick knockouts and was quickly dubbed the next big thing in MMA. But, once Alexander was tested, his obvious weaknesses were exposed and he is no longer in the UFC. It is not fair to compare Carwin to Alexander, because he seems to be more skilled, but we don’t really know what Carwin’s true potential is just yet.
Last Five Fights:
First round TKO win over Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 96 on March 7, 2009
First round TKO win over Neil Wain at UFC 89 on Oct. 18, 2008
First round KO win over Christian Wellisch at UFC 84 on May 24, 2008
First round TKO win over Sherman Pendergarst at ROF 31 on Dec. 1, 2007
First round submission win over Rex Richards at AOW 4 on Oct. 27, 2007
Who will win: The winner of this bout gets Lesnar this summer to unify the heavyweight titles. In this fight, Mir will need to get the fight to the ground in a position favorable to him where he can choke Carwin out or grab a limb. Carwin will be looking to land the big punch and pressure Mir. Mir has shown in the past that he leaves himself open at times. If he does that with Carwin, the fight will be over. In this close fight, we like Carwin to land the big strike and avoid any serious submission situations. We will go with Carwin by TKO late in round one.
Additional Line: Over/Under 6.5 minutes for fight length. Over (+105) and Under (-145)