UFC 113 Odds and Picks – Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Rua
The main event of UFC 113 is a rematch for the Light Heavyweight Championship between champion Lyoto Machida and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua.
Machida enters the fight as the favorite with a betting line of -180 with Rua given a line of +145 according to online sports book SPORTSBETTING.com. Here is a closer look at both fighters heading into this main event bout, which will take place from the Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, Canada, begining at 10PM ET live on pay-per-view.
Lyoto Machida (16-0):
Strengths: Machida was an overwhelming favorite in the first meeting, with a money line of -500, but Rua was able to pose a great challenge to Machida with his unorthodox style and his successful use of leg and body kicks. Until the fight with Shogun, Machida had yet to lose a round in the UFC as his ability to avoid damage while landing quick and accurate strikes made him appear unbeatable. Machida packs a lot of power in his quick hands and his karate style allows him to fight his strongest backing up.
Weaknesses: His strength is his style, but it could also be his weakness as his backing up style is what opened him up against Shogun. We have never really seen Machida face the kind of adversity he did against Shogun, so it will be interesting to see how he adapts his style in this rematch. Machida will need to be more of an aggressor to clearly establish he is the better fighter but also need to show the quickness he has had in his career to avoid taking serious damage.
Last Five Fights:
Unanimous decision win over Mauricio Rua at UFC 104 on Oct. 24, 2009
Second round KO win over Rashad Evans at UFC 98 on May 23, 2009
First round KO win over Thiago Silva at UFC 94 on Jan. 31, 2009
Unanimous decision win over Tito Ortiz at UFC 84 on May 24, 2008
Second round submission win over Ramwau Thierry Sokoudjou at UFC 79 on Dec. 29, 2007
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (18-4):
Strengths: Rua is a fighter that likes to push the action will mixing in kicks, knees, and elbows along with the usual punches in the striking game. Shogun is also solid on the ground and can submit anyone. His all-around game is very strong but his early struggles in the UFC perhaps allowed him to fly under the radar for his first fight with Machida. Shogun was once considered the top light heavyweight in the world while dominating Pride.
Weaknesses: Conditioning was a big factor for Rua coming into the UFC as he gassed against Forrest Griffin, which led to a submission loss in the third round and he also gassed against Mark Coleman but still managed to score a TKO win as Coleman was just as tired. For the fight with Machida, Shogun showed good conditioning, fighting a full 25 minutes without letting up in his aggression. Shogun will need that same conditioning for this rematch, as he will have to stalk Machida for another 25 minutes.
Last Five Fights:
Unanimous decision loss to Lyoto Machida at UFC 104 on Oct. 24, 2009
First round KO win over Chuck Liddell at UFC 97 on April 18, 2009
Third round TKO win over Mark Coleman at UFC 93 on Jan. 17, 2009
Third round submission loss to Forrest Griffin at UFC 76 on Sept. 22, 2007
First round KO win over Alistair Overeem at Pride 33 on Feb. 24, 2007
Who will win: Machida still seems to be the better fighter and the first bout was simply a matter of his opponent coming up with a good game plan. Expect Machida to make the proper adjustments and be able to control the fight while Shogun will likely have a similar game plan. The only way Shogun can really change things up is to attempt to get the fight to the ground, but Machida will be able to avoid that with his quickness and striking ability. Look for Machida to earn a TKO win in the third round after picking Shogun apart in the first two rounds.
Additional Line: Over/Under 13.5 minutes for fight length. Over (-180) Under (+140).