UFC 115 Odds & Picks – Paulo Thiago vs. Martin Kampmann
One of the featured bouts on the main card of UFC 115 is a welterweight contest between Paulo Thiago and Martin Kampmann.
Thiago enters the fight as the favorite with a betting line of -245 with Kampmann given a line of +192 according to online sports book SPORTSBETTING.com. Here is a closer look at both fighters heading into this main card bout, which will take place from General Motors Palace in Vancouver, British Columbia at 10PM ET on pay-per-view.
Paulo Thiago (13-1):
Strengths: Thiago came into the UFC as a submission fighter but he has been able to unveil some surprising striking since joining the organization. Thiago earned a knockout win over current No. 1 contender Josh Koscheck in his debut and now is coming off a win over Koscheck’s teammate, Mike Swick, in which he caught Swick with a solid shot and then jumped on him with a choke for the victory. Thiago is known more as a ground fighter, but opponents have to respect his striking.
Weaknesses: The lone loss in his career is against Jon Fitch as he was unable to get off the ground against him and took a decision loss. Also, with his recent string of success on his feet, Thiago could get over-confident and think is striking is up to par, which could lead to a knockout loss. Thiago needs to stay smart and stick to his strengths.
Last Five Fights:
Second round submission win over Mike Swick at UFC 109 on Feb. 6, 2010
Unanimous decision win over Jacob Volkmann at UFC 106 on Nov. 21, 2009
Unanimous decision loss to Jon Fitch at UFC 100 on July 11, 2009
First round TKO win over Josh Koscheck at UFC 95 on Feb. 21, 2009
First round TKO win over Luis Dutra Jr. at JF 11 on Sept. 13, 2008
Martin Kampmann (16-3):
Strengths: Kampmann is an aggressive and well-rounded fighter that is very tough on his feet and a solid grappler. Kampmann doesn’t have a definitive strength, he is just very balanced. For this contest, Kampmann will have to exhibit better striking. His two UFC losses came in fights where he felt overwhelmed on his feet, and that should not be the case in this fight. In his career, Kampmann has never been submitted.
Weaknesses: It isn’t so much a weakness, but not having a clear strength can also be a problem as he doesn’t excel in one area, so he can’t rely on a bread & butter when a fight is not going his way. While he has never been submitted, Kampmann has to feel like the only way he can lose this fight is by making a mistake on the ground.
Last Five Fights:
First round submission win over Jacob Volkmann at UFC 108 on Jan. 2, 2010
First round TKO loss to Paul Daley at UFC 103 on Sept. 19, 2009
Split decision win over Carlos Condit at UFC Fight Night 18 on April 1, 2009
Second round TKO win over Alexandre Barros at UFC 93 on Jan. 17, 2009
First round TKO loss to Nate Marquardt at UFC 88 on Sept. 6, 2008
Who will win: While Thiago shows a lot of promise, this fight seems like it will go the same way his battle with Fitch did in the sense that Kampmann should be able to dictate where the fight goes and at what pace. Kampmann is getting a great line for this fight, and yet he has lost just three times in his career while having defeated some solid opponents. We suggest jumping on Kampmann for this fight and making a big payout when he wins a decision.