UFC 121 Preview & Picks: Bettors Would Love to See Lesnar Lose
By COREY ERDMAN
Brock Lesnar is the LeBron James of mixed martial arts.
Both elite talents are at the top of their sport. And both have a growing opposition that gets louder and uglier with every win. But unlike James, who crossed basketball fans with his offseason move to Miami, Lesnar’s public opinion has been in the red since he stepped inside the UFC octagon.
Although he has taken the sport by storm, captured the promotion’s top title and posted a 5-1 professional record, Lesnar continues to be discounted by MMA purist, UFC bettors and even sportsbooks, who have priced the heavyweight champ as a short -140 favorite against Cain Velazquez at UFC 121 Saturday.
Seemingly, the more dominant Lesnar gets, the less fans like him and the more doubt the betting public casts on his skill level. Fans keep searching for reasons why the Monster from Minnesota isn't the best in the business.
“More hardcore MMA fans feel that Velasquez can dethrone Brock Lesnar than felt that Shane Carwin could dethrone Lesnar in their bout,” said Arda Ocal, MMA analyst for The Score. “The MMA community is giving Cain Velasquez more respect than the casual fan would expect.”
In the early stages of Lesnar’s MMA career, the former WWE wrestler was dismissed as a novelty, a genetic freak whose brute force allowed him to stumble upon victory. But with Lesnar now the proven commodity, is Velasquez the hype-job in this matchup?
After TKO victories over full-time gatekeeper Cheick Kongo and fringe contender Ben Rothwell, 'La Raza' flattened an aging Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera in just over two minutes. While the brevity of the contests is impressive, the level of competition isn't exactly eye-popping. Nor does it support the claim that Velasquez has the “best cardio of anyone in the heavyweight division.”
“He's on a six-fight win streak in the UFC, with only one fight going the distance. He demolished an MMA legend. He's young, fast and strong on his feet and on the ground. He's got the AKA fight training pedigree,” explained Ocal. “It makes sense why the perception would be that Velasquez is more than a credible contender to the heavyweight title.”
Lesnar's last outing, a second-round submission of Shane Carwin can be analyzed one of two ways: Either he looked more vulnerable than ever, having nearly been stopped by a barrage of punches in the first round. Or, he appeared stronger than ever, having survived an onslaught from a man implicated in a recent steroid bust.
The oddsmakers clearly saw the former, based on the razor-thin line. It remains to be seen whether sports bettors will be more skeptical of the champion or the unproven challenger.
UFC 121 betting picks:
MMA oddsmaker Joey Oddessa shares his insight on the main card of UFC 121.
Brock Lesnar (-140) vs. Cain Velasquez (+110)
Assuming Lesnar is the better wrestler and Velasquez is better with his hands, the fight will come down to who can dictate the terms. Can the champion be as dominant as he has always been if he comes in below the heavyweight maximum, as expected?
What the oddsmaker is saying: "I think Cain wins this fight. The only advantage Brock has in this fight is his size and he's trimmed down a bit as well. Cain is a live dog."
Pick: Velasquez
Martin Kampmann (+165) vs. Jake Shields (-210)
It's possible that MMA fans never got to see the extent of Shields' talents in Strikeforce, as he wasn't permitted to throw elbows. Now he can throw them all day, but he'll have to break down a stellar striker in Kampmann in order to do that.
What the oddsmaker is saying: “Shields' battle right now might be with the scale. It's also his first time in the UFC, so that works to Kampmann's advantage. Kampmann has nothing to lose."
Pick: Kampmann
Diego Sanchez (+100) vs. Paulo Thiago (-130)
Sanchez has just never looked good at this weight and it's perhaps name value alone that is allowing the margin to be so narrow on this line.
What the oddsmaker is saying: “He's already talking about going back down to 155. The bigger fighter here is Thiago and I think he's going to end up being the better fighter.”
Pick: Thiago
Tito Ortiz (+140) vs. Matt Hamill (-170)
Two recognizable fighters who have disappointed bettors on many occasions. Nonetheless, an exciting bout on paper that should be enjoyable to watch with or without money on the line.
What the oddsmaker is saying: "I can't lay a $1.70 on Matt Hamill. If Tito gets him to the ground, he can inflict some damage. He can be vicious."
Pick: Ortiz
Brendan Schaub (+135) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (-165)
Betting on Brazilian fighters has traditionally been a roll of the dice but a focused Gonzaga is the real deal, even at this price.
What the oddsmaker is saying: "If Gonzaga's in shape, he's better on the ground. It's night and day. I think he's just the better all-around fighter."
Pick: Gonzaga