UFC 123 Betting: Machida has more to lose vs. Rampage

UFC 123 Betting: Machida has more to lose vs. Rampage
By COREY ERDMAN

A year ago, a bout between Lyoto Machida and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson would have been a matchup of the two most feared fighters in the sport. But at UFC 123 this Saturday, the two former champions will square off to try to hold onto their luster.

In the rapidly expanding world of MMA, a few losses are all it takes to send a fighter into the relative purgatory of undercard or non-televised bouts. On the flip side, the still tight-knit roster in the UFC is such that one big win can vault a fighter back into the limelight.

Such is the situation facing Jackson and Machida and both men are taking the threat seriously, making adaptations to their usual camps.

Machida, who generally trains in his native Brazil, shifted camp to California. The state arguably contains more top MMA stars than any other area of the world, in order to get the best sparring possible. Rampage has done the opposite in bringing the folks he normally trains with in the United Kingdom to his home in California, in order to have a more relaxed environment.

"I think (Machida) has more to lose," said Arda Ocal, MMA analyst for The Score. "A great winning streak, at one point seemed unbeatable, followed by two losses would certainly notch him down a peg in competition. A third loss and he could be on the chopping block."

Perhaps this is why Rampage is looking to relax a little. On top of the fact that some calmness provided by his family would do him some good against a patient fighter like Machida, the type that normally troubles him, Jackson has suffered losses in the past and yet seems to have a secure spot in the UFC.

As a result of the losses, most recently to Rashad Evans, Jackson enters Saturday a +200 underdog.

“He's still a brand name,” said Ocal. “He often sets up merchandise tables in arenas where he is fighting to sell the Rampage "chain" necklace, and they sell very well. He's a character and, regardless of the comparisons to pro wrestling, MMA benefits from its fighters being over the top characters.”

Machida has preyed upon hyper-aggressive fighters like Jackson in the past, but showed vulnerability for the first time in his two bouts against Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. In their second contest at UFC 113, Rua knocked Machida out in the first round to capture the UFC light heavyweight championship and proving that the Machida Karate method is not impenetrable as once thought.

A fighter vulnerable to knockouts is music to Rampage's ears and likely to a lot of bettors as well. But will Jackson come out on a rampage or will he harmonize his game plan and add to the dent on Machida's chin?

UFC 123 betting picks:

We picked the brain of renowned MMA oddsmaker Joey Oddessa, getting his leans for UFC 123.

Quinton Jackson (+220) vs. Lyoto Machida (-280)

Jackson has struggled with less-skilled fighters who were patient enough to wait him out, most notably Forrest Griffin. We may find out on Saturday that Rampage has been a product of being well-matched

What the oddsmaker is saying: “(Machida) opened at -250, he went as high as -350. I can’t imagine Machida going over the game plan and deciding to walk into something from Jackson.”

Pick: Machida

B.J. Penn (-175) vs. Matt Hughes (+145)

Penn showed tremendous vulnerability against Frankie Edgar and a larger man like Matt Hughes just might be able to exploit it.

What the oddsmaker is saying: “I opened Matt Hughes as the favorite. If Frankie Edgar can take down B.J. Penn, so can Matt Hughes.”

Pick: Hughes

Gerald Harris (-265) vs. Maiquel Falcao (+205)

If there a bout on which to take a flier on the undercard, this would be the one. A 25-3 fighter can’t be underestimated.

What the oddsmaker is saying: “Falcao’s got good standup. I think Harris might be a little bit overpriced.”

Pick: Falcao

Phil Davis (-650) vs. Tim Boetsch (+450)

Boetsch is heading down trial-horse road, having lost in every step up he’s taken thus far in his career. That path is likely to continue this weekend.

What the oddsmaker is saying: “I can’t bet a guy that I don’t think will win. Boetsch is tough, but I don’t see any way he can catch Phil Davis.”

Pick: Davis

Joe Lauzon (+200) vs. George Sotiropolous (-260)

Lauzon’s tendency to get reckless is likely to catch up with him again.

What the oddsmaker is saying: “Lauzon has a huge fan base and that’s what’s keeping (the odds lower) for him. I think Sotiropolous is the right side here. I think the right price is probably around 3-to-1.”

Pick: Sotiropolous