UFC 150: Edgar-Henderson II
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
The Ultimate Fighting Championship will return to the Mile High City this Saturday for a 10-fight card that’ll be highlighted by a rematch between Frankie ‘The Answer’ Edgar and Benson ‘Smooth’ Henderson for the UFC lightweight title.
As of Thursday, most betting shops were listing Henderson as a minus-190 favorite with Edgar available at plus-160 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $160 on Edgar).
Henderson (16-2 MMA, 4-0 UFC) won the belt from Edgar at UFC 144 in Japan. ‘Smooth’ won a unanimous decision by scores of 49-46, 49-46 and 48-47.
Since Edgar granted immediate rematches to B.J. Penn and Gray Maynard, he was able to persuade Dana White to do the same for him.
Edgar (14-2-1 MMA, 9-2-1 UFC) won the belt from Penn at UFC 112 and then defended it against Penn again at UFC 118. After battling Maynard to a majority draw at UFC 125, Edgar finally took down his nemesis with a fourth-round knockout in a thriller at UFC 136.
In the first fight with Henderson, Edgar had a swollen left eye after getting the worst of the stand-up exchanges in the first round. When Edgar got a takedown late in Round 2, he appeared on the verge of winning the stanza until Henderson broke his nose with a gorgeous upkick.
I gave Edgar the third round but the fourth and fifth went to Henderson, who won by a 49-46 count on my card. Henderson’s face was unscathed at the end of the fight, while Edgar was a bloody mess with a left eye nearly swollen shut.
Since losing to Anthony ‘Showtime’ Pettis at WEC 53, Henderson has collected four decision victories over Mark Bocek, Jim Miller, Clay Guida and Edgar. Eleven of Edgar’s last 13 fights have gone to the judges’ scorecards.
The oddsmakers certainly expect this fight to go the distance, as evidenced by a minus-265 price tag. Gamblers can bet the fight to not go the distance for a plus-205 return (risk $100 to win $205).
Prediction: Both guys have incredible cardio and are tough as nails so I do expect this to go the distance, but I wouldn’t bet on it at the minus-265 price. I like Henderson to win thanks to his advantage in size and strength but with that said, I’m not willing to risk the ‘chalky’ price against a warrior like Edgar. I’ll pass.
In the co-main event, I think we have our favorite to earn Fight of the Night honors. Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone will face Melvin ‘The Young Assassin’ Guillard in what promises to be a stand-up slugfest.
Most spots have made Cerrone a minus-300 ‘chalk’ with Guillard available as a plus-240 underdog.
Cerrone (18-4-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC) has taken home four bonus checks (two Fights of the Night, one KO of the Night and one Submission of the Night) in his six career Octagon appearances. Cerrone won his first four UFC fights before losing a unanimous decision to Nate Diaz at UFC 141. In a bounce-back spot, ‘Cowboy’ dominated Jeremy Stephens in a unanimous-decision victory.
Cerrone and Guillard used to be teammates and daily sparring partners when both fought out of Greg Jackson’s camp in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Guillard left that camp to join the Blackzilians in South Florida about a year ago.
Jackson will work Cerrone’s corner for the fight, but he hasn’t been a part of the gameplan or Cerrone’s training for the last month. That’s because Cerrone didn’t want to get credit for winning because of special preparation from a guy in Jackson who worked with Guillard for so long.
Guillard (30-10-2-1 MMA, 11-6 UFC) won five consecutive fights and appeared to be on the cusp of a title shot before getting upset by Joe Lauzon via rear-naked choke in the first minute of Round 1 at UFC 136. The next time out, Guillard had Jim Miller badly hurt in the first minute of their main-event showdown in Nashville.
However, Miller was able to recover and get the fight to the ground where he finished it by rear-naked choke. Guillard bounced back at UFC 148 by capturing a unanimous-decision win over Fabricio Camoes.
This three-round fight has minus-260 odds to not go the distance. A plus-200 payout can be had if the fight goes to the judges.
Prediction: I thought this fight would be a pick ‘em and I’m stunned that Cerrone is an expensive favorite in the minus-300 range. I’m all over Guillard at the generous underdog odds!
Jake Shields (27-6-1 MMA, 2-2 UFC) is moving up to the middleweight division to take on Ed Herman. Most spots are listing Shields as a minus-200 ‘chalk’ with Herman marked as the plus-170 underdog.
After losing back-to-back fights to Georges St-Pierre and Jake Ellenberger, Shields responded with a unanimous-decision win over Yoshihiro Akiyama at UFC 144.
Herman (20-7 MMA, 7-5 UFC) is looking for his fourth straight win after posting victories over Tim Credeur, Kyle Noke and Clifford Starks.
Prediction: Shields hasn’t been impressive since beating Dan Henderson under the Strikeforce banner in April of 2010. I lean to the underdog and might make a small play on Herman.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Two other fights on the pay-per-view card: Yushin ‘Thunder’ Okami (-600) vs. Buddy Roberts (+450) and Justin Lawrence (-120) vs. Max Holloway (-110).
There are four fights that’ll be televised for free on FX and one fight that can be viewed on the UFC’s Facebook page.
With Josh Koscheck pulling out of his UFC 151 co-main event bout versus Jake Ellenberger, the promotion has tabbed Jay Hieron to replace ‘Kos’ against the Omaha native. Koscheck was forced to withdraw due to a bulging disc on his back. Hieron has won 11 of his last 12 fights but is 0-2 in the UFC. He hasn’t fought in the UFC in more than seven years.
UFC light heavyweight champ Jon ‘Bones’ Jones has signed a lucrative deal with Nike.
Hector Lombard explained his poor UFC debut performance on his Facebook page on Wednesday, claiming he fought Tim Boetsch (split-decision loss at UFC 149) with a fractured sternum. Lombard says he can’t train for the next six weeks.
UFC 150 Betting Notes
By Sportsbook.ag
Benson Henderson (15-2) vs. Frankie Edgar (14-2-1)
Headlining the UFC 150 card, Frankie Edgar will look to reclaim the lightweight title from Benson Henderson, who took it from him in February with a five-round decision victory.
This is both Henderson and Edgar's first fight since that UFC 144 bout. Since leaving WEC, when he lost the title there to Anthony Pettis, Henderson has transitioned to UFC with no issues. While he has been unable to end fights before the final bell, he has prevailed in all four of his UFC fights, posting decision victories. In these wins, he has consistently outfought his opponents, Mark Bocek, Jim Miller, Clay Guida, and most recently, Edgar. In Edgar's past eight bouts, he is 6-1-1 with four of his wins coming as decisions, plus one KO and one submission to boot. When these two fighters came to blows in February, Henderson's overwhelming power was the difference. Edgar is often the aggressor and focuses on landing more attacks, but Henderson's size advantage proved final, as he was able to answer Edgar's weaker attacks with crushing blows.
At 5-foot-9, Henderson holds a three-inch height advantage over Edgar, fueling speculation that Edgar might drop down to the featherweight class after their last fight. But "Smooth" Henderson's first title defense comes against the man who he took it from, so his wrestling game will need to be at its best again. With a classic ground-and-pound attacking style, Henderson is a relentless fighter who makes it count when he connects. His Muay Thai and Jiu Jitsu allow him to balance that wrestling attack with good striking and submissions, but if Henderson wins this one, it will be by outdueling Edgar for the full 25 minutes.
Edgar first won the title in 2010 from BJ Penn, and defended it against Penn in the next fight with a second consecutive unanimous decision. Some people thought he deserved better in his last fight against Henderson because he tried to land more attacks than his opponent, but there is no questioning he came out of the fight more injured than Henderson. Unlike Henderson, "The Answer" Edgar has won fights both by knockout and submissions since being in UFC, and against such a punishing fighter, his best shot here might be making a move to finish this one before the final bell.
Donald Cerrone (18-4) vs. Melvin Guillard (47-11-3)
With the lightweight belt up for grabs between Henderson and Edgar on this card, fellow lightweights Donald Cerrone and Melvin Guillard will also battle it out in the Octagon in Saturday's UFC 150.
Cerrone certainly enters this fight between the two former training partners with the momentum as the winner in seven of his past eight bouts, with that one loss coming to Nate Diaz. He bounced back well, however, with a unanimous decision over Jeremy Stephens, and has beaten other top foes recently such as Denis Siver and Charles Oliveira. Guillard has lost two of his past three fights, but since 2008 is 8-3 in UFC, most recently with a win over Fabricio Camoes on July 7. In terms of common opponents, one of Guillard's three losses was to Diaz, but he also owns a victory over Stephens to his name. While Cerrone is understandably the favorite here, with a great chance at earning a submission victory, Guillard has also proven capable of ending any fight at any point with his unmistakable knockout power.
At 6-foot-0, "Cowboy" Cerrone owns a three-inch height advantage in this bout. Strikes make up the core of his attack but when he wins, it's because he has tactically positioned himself and earned a submission-13 of his 18 career wins have been submissions. And that could prove effective against Guillard, whose wild attacking style leaves him vulnerable to submissions, especially recently. His past two losses were both rear-naked choke submissions. The last two times Cerrone won by submission, he used that exact techinque.
"The Young Assassin" Guillard has undeniable power, the question is if he can discipline himself enough in a given fight to make that strength an advantage, not a disadvantage. His attacks sometimes leave him vulnerable to opponent counters, which he has to be wary of against a quality fighter like Cerrone. A boxer by trade, he needs to make sure he connects when he decides to pounce, and make sure his strikes count.
Jake Shields (27-6-1) vs. Ed Herman (20-7)
In one of two middleweight bouts on UFC 150, Jake Shields will come to blows with Ed Herman, the winner of three consecutive fights.
In his past three bouts, Herman has found his form, winning with a KO of Tim Credeur and submissions of Kyle Noke and Clifford Starks. Shields is 2-2 since joining UFC in 2010, but has fought cream-of-the-crop opponents. He won a controversial split decision over Martin Kampmann, then lost to Georges St-Pierre for the middleweight belt in a five-round decision. Five months later, he lost in a quick 1st-round KO to Jake Ellenberger, but rebounded well with a decision win over Yoshihiro Akiyama in February. With 12 submissions and six knockouts in his career, Herman undoubtedly has the ability to end this fight early. But he has never fought the quality of opponents that Shields has, while Shields has regularly made easy work of easier foes.
Herman's major advantage in this bout may be his height advantage, standing at 6-foot-2, two inches above Shields. The 31-year-old Herman is also two years younger than his opponent. While his three-consecutive victories suggest he is ready to take on tougher fighters, it wasn't long ago that he was struggling mightily. In the four fights before that, he lost three against opponents who are not daunting. A talented Jiu Jitsu artist, "Short Fuse" Herman will need to focus on taking this to the ground and trying to finish his opponent before the final bell with a submission. Shields, however, has never lost via submission.
Also trained in Jiu Jitsu, Shields has 10 submission victories in his career and 14 decision wins. The latter seems like his best approach for this fight, as a stronger technical fighter who should have no problem earning the nod from the judges. His wrestling is also a strong point, but ultimately what gives him an edge against most opponents is his world-class endurance that lets him fight relentlessly until the final bell.