UFC 177 Odds and Pick
By: Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS -- UFC 177 comes to us Saturday night from Sacramento, with a bantamweight title fight between champion T.J. Dillashaw and No. 1 contender Renan Barao. It’s an immediate rematch of a fight back in May, when Dillashaw defeated then-champ Barao.
The most memorable thing about that fight – besides a +550 underdog winning the belt – was the total domination that Dillashaw displayed that evening. He won every round and finally finished Barao in the fifth. Dillashaw wasn't given much of a chance going into that fight against the highly-regarded Barao.
Dillashaw (10-2), who hails from the Alpha Male training center led by Urijah Faber, probably wasn't even regarded as the best bantamweight in his own gym – that spot was maintained by Faber for years – but that didn't stop him from proving critics and oddsmakers wrong that evening.
Since this is an immediate rematch, rather than look at common opponents or past records, it makes more sense to analyze what we learned from the first fight and how that plays into Saturday's rematch.
The champion Dillashaw will surely be full of confidence, knowing he was able to beat Barao easily in their first encounter, and he'll probably use similar aggressive tactics here. Barao (32-2), on the other hand, needs to come out fast – something he’s been able to do throughout his career – and take away some of that confidence from T.J.
The betting line is the story ahead of Saturday night. Dillashaw, a +550 underdog just three months ago, is now a -150 favorite, with Barao getting about +130 odds as the underdog. Without making an outright prediction, the odds adjustment is way too drastic. Fighters, like football teams, have off nights, while others have nights where they perform way above their normal skill set.
Barao just didn't have it that night in May and may have been a little over confident. After all, he defeated Faber, the leader of Dillashaw's training camp, twice, finishing him in the first round of their last meeting earlier this year.
Expect the real Renan Barao to show up on Saturday night and give a performance more becoming of one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world.
Dillashaw should get a big lift from the fans in his camp's hometown, but that doesn't always translate into good performances – sometimes hometown fighters get away from their gameplans and go for KOs, rather than just try to win rounds.
This should be a great fight, as these lower-weight affairs are typically fast-paced where rounds can be difficult to score. But the value of getting a great fighter like Renan Barao at plus-money can’t be ignored.
The lean here is towards Barao and the +130 odds to get his title back Saturday night.
UFC 177 Preview
By Sportsbook.ag
Event: UFC 177
Date: Sat. August 30, 2014
TV/Time: (FS1/PPV, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Venue: Sleep Train Arena
City: Sacramento, California
Bettors hoping to see a title fight on Saturday will be disappointed as Renan Barao was removed from the rematch against T.J. Dillashaw (11-2) after reportedly feeling ill during his weight cut Friday. He was replaced by Joe Soto (15-2), who was scheduled to fight the undercard against Anthony Birchak.
UFC 177 still features a solid card, which includes a nice lightweight matchup between contenders Danny Castillo and Tony Ferguson.
Lightweight Bout: Danny Castillo (17-6) vs. Tony Ferguson (16-3)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Ferguson -245, Castillo +200
Danny Castillo represents Team Alpha Male in a big night for the fight camp, as he goes up against Tony Ferguson at UFC 177 on Saturday.
Castillo is coming off a victory at UFC 172 against Charlie Brenneman. In that fight, he was able to get a victory by way of knockout, finishing the match in the first round. The 35-year-old from Sacramento will have the home crowd behind him, which definitely could play a role in this fight. Castillo has shown throughout his career that he has the ability to win a match in many different ways, allowing him to be able to compete against any style of opponent. His terrific cardio could play a huge role in this fight, as his opponent Ferguson has not been in very many matches that have gone the distance. However, a lot of them have not needed to because he has elite knockout power. In his last match against Katsunori Kikuno, he showed that vicious knockout power by ending the match in the first round. He has the ability to end a match in a hurry, something that Castillo has not seen often in his career.
Hailing from Oxnard, "El Cucuy" Ferguson has quite an impressive resume with 16 victories. Of those wins, 10 have come by way of knockout. The 30-year-old also has four wins by submission and two by decision. His biggest advantage in this fight will absolutely be his striking ability. Ferguson enters this match averaging 4.48 significant strikes per minute, which is much greater than Castillo (2.25). If there is one negative in his striking, it is that Ferguson can get a little sporadic with his punches, landing only 32 percent of his attempts, compared to Castillo, who lands 44 percent. If Ferguson is able to keep the fight on his feet, he will be in great position to get the win. However, if Castillo can control the pace of the fight, he will have the opportunity to score the upset.
"Last Call" Castillo enters this match with 17 victories in his career, with seven wins by both knockout and decision. He also has three wins by submission. If Ferguson’s biggest advantage is in his striking, Castillo has an equally big advantage in grappling. For his career, he has a takedown average of 3.45, compared to 1.34 for Ferguson. He does not have a lot of wins on his resume by way of submission, but he does a great job of wearing down his opponent to score some points later in the round. Ferguson has a perfect takedown defense of 100 percent, but he has never faced anyone who is as tenacious on the takedown attempts as his Saturday opponent. This fight is going to be determined by which fighter is able to control the flow of action.
Other UFC 177 Bouts
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag:
Lightweight Matchup
Chris Wade -145
Cain Carrizosa +115
Heavyweight Matchup
Anthony Hamilton -215
Ruan Potts +175
Flyweight Matchup
Henry Cejudo -180
Scott Jorgensen +147
Middleweight Matchup
Derek Brunson -140
Lorenz Larkin +110
Lightweight Matchup
Yancy Medeiros -125
Damon Jackson -105
Lightweight Matchup
Carlos Diego Ferreira -205
Ramsey Nijem +167
Bantamweight Matchup
Bethe Correia -145
Shayna Baszler +115
Lightweight Matchup
T.J. Dillashaw -1200
Joe Soto +700