UFC 178 Odds and Picks
By: Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS – UFC 178 comes to us this Saturday night from Las Vegas, with a great card headlined by Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson defending his flyweight title against No. 8 Chris Cariaso (PPV). Johnson, who will be looking for his seventh straight win, has established himself as one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in MMA today. Unfortunately for players who want to place a bet on “Mighty Mouse" (16-2-1), his great skill hasn't gone unnoticed in the betting markets, as he is a prohibitive -1300 favorite to retain his title Saturday night. Cariaso (17-5) is listed as high as +900 odds as the underdog, depending on where you shop this fight.
As always in MMA, there are many ways to win and lose. I always first try to make a case for the underdog. Cariaso does have a win over the always-tough Takeya Mizugaki but has been defeated by John Moraga and former bantamweight champion Renan Barao. I don't see Cariaso pulling off the big upset here, but I never argue with anyone who wants to throw a few bucks on a huge underdog.
Johnson, being such a huge favorite, offers no betting value. Remember, "never bet the orchard to win an apple".
Even without a wager, though, this fight offers the chance to watch a great champion in his prime defend his title one more time.
The undercard
Preceding the main event, a lightweight who does offer value, Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone, welcomes former Bellator lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez to the UFC. The fight has been made a pick’ em at most Vegas sport books.
Alvarez (23-3) fought two close fights with Michael Chandler in Bellator, winning the last one to become that promotion’s lightweight champion.
Cerrone has been mainstay near the top of the UFC lightweight division for quite a while and is on a nice four-fight winning streak. His last win, arguably his best, was a second-round knockout of the always-tough Jim Miller. In that fight, "Cowboy" became the first fighter ever to knockout Miller.
While there are good fighters in other promotions, they do not face the same competition you find in the UFC, which is far and away the best promotion in MMA. The oddsmakers are giving a little too much credit to Alvarez for what he's done in the Bellator promotion, while discounting Cerrone's body of work in the UFC.
In what might be the best fight on Saturday's card, lets go with Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone to defeat Eddie Alvarez.
UFC 178: Preview
By MMA OddsBreaker
Ultimate Fighting Championships (UFC) is back once more tomorrow night (Saturday, September 27th) with a loaded event featuring a plethora of pivotal division match-ups.It all plays out with UFC 178 from Las Vegas, Nevada, which includes a flyweight title bout as well as four pairings of top 10 divisional rivals:
Main Card
125 lb. title: Demetrious Johnson (20-2-1) vs. Chris Cariaso (17-5)
155 lbs: Donald Cerrone (24-6, 1 NC) vs. Eddie Alvarez (25-3)
145 lbs: Dustin Poirier (16-3) vs. Conor McGregor (15-2)
185 lbs: Tim Kennedy (18-4) vs. Yoel Romero (8-1)
135 lbs: Cat Zingano (8-0) vs. Amanda Nunes (9-3)
Preliminary Card
135 lbs: Dominick Cruz (19-1) vs. Takeya Mizugaki (20-7-2)
155 lbs: Jorge Masvidal (27-8) vs. James Krause (21-5)
170 lbs: Patrick Cote (20-8) vs. Stephen Thompson (9-1)
170 lbs: John Howard (22-9) vs. Brian Ebersole (50-16-1)
155 lbs: Jon Tuck (8-1) vs. Kevin Lee (8-1)
135 lbs: Manny Gamburyan (13-8) vs. Cody Gibson (12-4)
This event is special due to the co-headlining bout of the main card, which features a battle between a pair of elite lightweight veterans in Donald Cerrone and Eddie Alvarez. Both men have a ton of knockout power and love to stand and bang on the feet. Cerrone has been on a tremendous roll as of late while Alvarez is making his much-anticipated UFC debut as the former two-time Bellator lightweight champion.
Pay extra attention to the featherweight contest between Dustin Poirier and Irish superstar Conor McGregor in the third from last bout of the evening. Poirier is a 10-fight UFC veteran ranked #5 in the UFC while McGregor has risen swiftly through the ranks, building so much momentum that he is expected to earn a title shot with a victory due to his brash attitude in the press and his immense popularity. The battle against Poirier will be a true test to establish just how good he really is..
Other notable fighters to keep an eye on will be former UFC bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz against top five-ranked Takeya Mizugaki as "The Dominator" looks to return to the top of the division. Cruz never was defeated for his title, rather stripped of his belt after a series of repeated injuries over the course of the last three years which have kept him from competition.
And don't forget the main event of the evening, which features UFC flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson's defense of his 125 pound belt. Johnson has begun to build a steady claim as the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world and he looks to continue his reign of dominance over the flyweight division by putting away the overmatched "Kamikaze.".
UFC 178 Preview
By Sportsbook.ag
Flyweight title bout: Demetrious Johnson (20-2-1) vs. Chris Cariaso (17-5)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Johnson -1400, Cariaso +750
Demetrious Johnson looks to remain the champion as he puts his belt on the line against heavy underdog Chris Cariaso at UFC 178 on Saturday night.
In his last match on June 14, Johnson was able to defend his belt against Ali Bagautinov at UFC 174. In that fight, he showed his ability to wear out his opponent, eventually getting the win by way of unanimous decision after a pair of takedowns and an overwhelming 133 to 36 advantage in significant strikes. At 28 years old, Johnson is only beginning to enter the prime of his career, meaning the best for him is still in the future. He has not lost a match since falling by way of unanimous decision to Dominick Cruz on October 11, 2011, going 6-0-1 in his past seven fights. Johnson's combination of speed and quickness is as good as there is in the sport, but he can also throw punches while also submitting his opponent. Chris Cariaso enters Saturday on a three-fight winning streak, with his most recent victory coming against Louis Smolka in May. In that match, he was able to get a close win by way of split decision. He will enter this match with a lot of confidence, but has never faced anyone with the talent of Johnson. Look for Cariaso to come out ready to fight, but in the end, it will not make a difference, as the enormously favored JOHNSON is just too good and will win easily.
"Mighty Mouse" Johnson enters this match with 20 victories in his career, with nine of them coming by way of decision. He also has seven wins by submission, with another four coming by way of knockout. These two fighters are very close when it comes to landing significant strikes (3.68 for Cariaso and 3.54 for Johnson), but Johnson is much more accurate when it comes to throwing those strikes at 53%, compared to 45% for his opponent. However, it will be the grappling of Johnson that makes things very difficult for Cariaso. The Washington native has a takedown average of 3.29, compared to only 1.35 for Cariaso. This is where Johnson is so dangerous, because not only can he end a match with a submission, but he also has the cardio to wear his opponents down. If he is able to use his speed and cardio, then things will be very difficult for Cariaso to get the victory. However, if he is able to come into the fight and start striking with Johnson, then he may have a chance to pull off the monumental upset.
"Kamikaze" Cariaso has 17 wins under his belt, with 12 of them coming by way of decision. He also has three wins by knockout and two by submission. For the 33-year-old from San Francisco to get the victory, he is going to have to come out ready from the very beginning and keep this fight on his feet. Both of these fighters have shown the ability to defend against the takedown (66 percent takedown defense for Johnson and 62 percent for Cariaso). Cariaso has shown that he is a very skilled fighter, but he needs to have the fight of his career to get this victory.
Lightweight bout: Donald Cerrone (24-6) vs. Eddie Alvarez (25-3)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Cerrone -125, Alvarez -105
Donald Cerrone and Eddie Alvarez battle in the main card at UFC 178 on Saturday in a match that has the potential to be the fight of the night.
The knock on Cerrone early in his career was that sometimes he was not focused on the fight. However, that has changed as of late, as he has been absolutely dominant during his four-match winning streak. In these four victories, none of the fights have made it to the third round. His last bout on July 16 saw him deliver a vicious head kick and punch combo in a victory against Jim Miller. When he is focused like he is now, Cerrone has the ability to compete with anybody in the lightweight division. Like Cerrone, Alvarez is also on a roll in the sport, winning his past three matches. In his last fight, he defeated Michael Chandley by way of split decision. However, this is his first UFC match, so the pressure will be on to perform immediately. Alvarez is a talented fighter, but right now, CERRONE is at the top of his game, and will come away with an exciting victory.
"Cowboy" Cerrone has 24 victories in his career, with 15 of them coming by submission. He also has five victories by way of decision and four by knockout. Both of these fighters are terrific strikers (3.94 significant strikes landed for Alvarez, 3.83 for Cerrone). However, Cerrone is more accurate when landing his strikes (47%), compared to 42% for Alvarez. Another advantage for the 6-foot-tall Cerrone in this match will be his height, as he stands three inches taller than his opponent. That will be a big advantage for him if this fight turns into a brawl, where he will be able to keep Alvarez at bay.
Alvarez comes into this fight with 25 victories, with 16 of them coming by way of knockout. He also has five victories by submission, and another four by decision. His biggest advantage in this fight will be his grappling, as he has a takedown average of 4.92, compared to just 1.53 for Cerrone. However, these numbers have not been against someone as good as Cerrone. With his shorter height and reach in this fight, Alvarez will need to bring this fight to the ground, and not allow Cerrone to use his length. If he is not able to take this to the mat, Cerrone will just pick him apart for the victory.
Featherweight bout: Dustin Poirer (16-3) vs. Conor McGregor (15-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line: McGregor -190, Poirer +155
Two of the top 10 featherweight contenders in the class battle on Saturday night as Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor square off at UFC 178.
Poirier is riding a three-fight winning streak, and in his last match, he won by TKO against Akira Corassani at TUF Nations Finale on April 16. At 25 years old, Poirier has a bright future in the sport, having already defeated talented opponents such as Max Holloway and Erik Koch. He is an explosive athlete that has shown the versatility to win a match in many different ways. However, for him to get where he wants to, he is going to have to take on one of the toughest fighters in the sport in McGregor. The 26-year-old from Ireland enters this match on an 11-fight winning streak, with his last victory coming on July 19. In that fight, he defeated Diego Brandao in the first round by TKO. Poirier is a talented fighter, but he is going up against a completely different animal in McGregor, who has been on a tear as of late. Expect McGREGOR to continue his surge with another knockout victory on Saturday.
“The Notorious” McGregor has 15 victories in his career, with 13 of them coming by way of knockout. He also has one victory by submission, and one by decision. Both of these fighters land a lot of significant strikes (4.55 for McGregor, 4.45 for Poirier). While Poirier is more accurate landing those strikes (49%, compared to 39% for McGregor), the power that McGregor packs in his punches is as good as there is in the class. While he is a knockout artist, he will have a huge grappling advantage in this fight too, with a takedown average of 3.71, compared to 1.41 for Poirier. He has a takedown accuracy of 83%, while Poirier has a weak 31% accuracy rate in takedowns. McGregor uses his takedowns to wear his opponents down, setting them up to get knocked out later in the fight. If this turns into a brawl, it will be extremely difficult for Poirier to get the victory.
"The Diamond" Poirier enters this fight with 16 career victories, with seven of them coming by way of knockout. He also has six wins by way of submission, and three wins by decision. This is an extremely difficult matchup for Poirier because his strength is striking with his opponent, but that could be dangerous against McGregor. For Poirier to have a chance in this fight, he needs to pick his spots throwing punches, rather than just start swinging carelessly. This is a big opportunity for him to get a huge victory, and he will have to be ready to fight from the very beginning.
Other UFC 178 Bouts
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag:
Lightweight Matchup
Kevin Lee -250
John Tuck +200
Bantamweight Matchup
Cody Gibson -210
Manny Gamburyan +170
Welterweight Matchup
Stephen Thompson -400
Patrick Cote +300
Welterweight Matchup
John Howard -235
Brian Ebersole +190
Bantamweight Matchup
Dominick Cruz -550
Takeya Mizugaki +400
Lightweight Matchup
Jorge Masdival -400
James Krause +300
Bantamweight Matchup
Cat Zingano -290
Amanda Nunes +225
Middleweight Matchup
Yoel Romero -145
Tim Kennedy +115