UFC 179 Odds and Picks
By: Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS – UFC 179 comes to us from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Saturday night, headlined by a featherweight title fight between champion Jose Aldo and No. 1 contender Chad "Money" Mendes (PPV). Aldo, fighting in his home country, is a -220 favorite to retain his title, with Mendes getting odds of +180 as the underdog.
For years now, Aldo (24-1-0) has been one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in MMA, and he is still in the prime of his career. This will be the seventh time Aldo has defended his UFC belt, and he should have a huge home-octagon advantage. Since Aldo has basically cleaned out the featherweight division, there has been talk of him moving up to lightweight to try for a title in a second division.
When looking at Aldo's resume, you see some of the biggest names in the lighter weight classes. Aldo holds wins over Frankie Edgar, Kenny Florian and Mendes, his opponent Saturday night. In addition, he holds a win over Urijah Faber, who happens to be the head of the Alpha Male training center where Mendes trains.
Mendes (16-1-0) has only one loss on his record, and that's to Aldo back in 2012. That fight, however, had a controversial ending, as Aldo was able to finish him with a knee after grabbing the fence to stop a Mendes takedown. The fight was stopped with one second left in the first round. Since that fight, "Money" has come back with five nice wins, four of them via stoppage. Mendes has shown a lot better striking lately to go with his great wrestling, and will surely try to use both skills in his game plan on Saturday night.
Even though Mendes is a much better fighter than the one who challenged Aldo back in 2012, it doesn't figure to be enough to get the win Saturday night. A chance to lay a fairly small price of -220 with a great fighter like Aldo is too good to pass up. Look for Aldo to defeat Mendes and retain his featherweight title.
The undercard
On the undercard is a key fight in the light heavyweight division between Glover Teixeira and Phil "Mr. Wonderful" Davis. Teixeira is a -300 favorite, with Davis getting about +240.
Davis (12-2-0) already proved he can go to Brazil and beat a Brazilian when he defeated Lyoto Machida in a decision back in 2013. This line might be a little high because of Davis' poor performance in his last fight, a one-sided loss to Anthony Johnson. However, that loss can be excused, as Davis went away from his great wrestling when he attempted way too much stand up.
Teixeira (22-3-0) had won 20 fights in a row before losing a title fight to Jon Jones earlier this year, and will also enjoy a home-crowd advantage.
Davis may be able to get enough takedowns to get a decision in a close fight. Take Davis and the generous price of +240 on the undercard.
Note: Heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez pulled out of his title defense next month and will be replaced by Mark Hunt in the main event against Fabricio Werdum.
UFC 179 Preview
By Sportsbook.ag
Event: UFC 179
Date: Sat. October 25, 2014
TV/Time: (FS1/PPV, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Venue: Ginásio do Maracanãzinho
City: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Featherweight Championship: Jose Aldo (24-1) vs. Chad Mendes (16-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Aldo -210, Mendes +170
Jose Aldo defends his featherweight title on Saturday night in Brazil as he takes on Chad Mendes as the headline fight at UFC 179.
These two have already fought in their careers, as Aldo delivered a vicious knockout with his knee with only one second remaining in the first round at UFC 142 on Jan. 14, 2012. Aldo has been off for some time, posting his 17th straight victory on Feb. 1 at UFC 169 against Ricardo Lamas when he won a dominant unanimous decision. In that match, he held a 62-41 striking advantage with two takedowns and two submissions. Aldo is one of the most dangerous fighters in all of the sport because of his ability to win a match in many different ways. He is an incredible athlete who has as good of cardio as anybody in the sport. He has defeated some terrific fighters in his career, beating guys like Mendes, Kenny Florian and Urijah Faber. His opponent, Mendes, has also been on a tear as of late, winning his past five matches since falling to Aldo. In his most recent bout on Dec. 14, 2013, he was able to take care of Nik Lentz by way of unanimous decision thanks to four takedowns during the fight. Like Aldo, Mendes is a talented fighter who can attack in many different ways. At 29 years old, he is still in the prime of his career, and he will be looking to get the signature victory against Aldo.
"Junior" Aldo has 24 victories in his career, with 15 of them coming by way of knockout. He also has eight wins by decision, and the other one coming by submission. His biggest advantage will be if he keeps the fight on his feet. He will have an advantage when it comes to throwing significant strikes, as he lands 3.18 strikes per minute, compared to 2.42 for Mendes. While he does not win a lot of matches via submission, he does have a higher percentage on takedowns (72 percent) than his opponent (60 percent). However, he may try and avoid that, as Mendes has shown to be a world-class grappler. If Aldo is able to keep the fight on his feet and use his athleticism and cardio, then he should be in great shape to get the victory. For Mendes, he will need to use his biggest advantage, which is his powerful fists.
"Money" Mendes enters this match with 16 victories in his career, with eight of them coming by way of decision. He also has six wins by knockout, with the other two coming by way of submission. Mendes is very strong for this weight class, and that could be his biggest advantage. He has a takedown average of 4.99, while Aldo has an average of only 1.05. If he is able to take Aldo to the ground, he will have a great chance to get the victory. Mendes has shown the ability to win many matches with his cardio, but that will be tough to establish in this fight.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Glover Teixeira (22-3) vs. Phil Davis (12-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Teixeira -290, Davis +225
Glover Teixeira looks to get back to his winning ways on Saturday night at UFC 179, as he takes on one of the most talented MMA fighters in Phil Davis.
Teixeira looks to bounce back from his first loss in nine years, as he fell to the champion Jon Jones on April 26. While Teixeira took Jones the distance, he was completely dominated in the fight as Jones held a 138-53 striking advantage with three takedowns and two submissions. The 34-year-old from Brazil is an experienced fighter who has the ability to win a fight in many different ways, especially by way of knockout, as he has tremendous power in his punches. However, he struggled with Jones’ length and athleticism in the fight, and Davis may be the only other guy in the class with that type of athleticism. Like Teixeira, Davis is coming off a tough loss, dropping a unanimous decision to Anthony Johnson on April 26. Johnson held a significant 45-21 advantage for significant strikes in that matchup. Davis, a 30-year-old from Pennsylvania, is an incredible athlete, who has the speed and quickness to wear his opponent out. Teixeira is looking to get back in title contention, but Davis needs that signature win in his career.
"Mr. Wonderful" Davis has 12 victories in his career, with six of those victories coming by decision. He also has four wins by submission, with the other two coming by way of knockout. Teixeira is a great fighter, but Davis should be able to use his incredible cardio and conditioning to get the win. If he tries to go punch-for-punch against Teixeira, then he could be in for a tough match. While both fighters are 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds, Davis has superior length, and will need to keep Teixeira away from him as much as possible. He has shown the ability to defend punches, blocking nearly 71 percent of his opponent’s strikes. If he is able to ward off Teixeira’s punches, Davis will have a great chance to get the win.
Teixeira has 22 victories in his career, with 14 of those coming by way of knockout. He also has five wins by submission, with the other three coming by decision. Teixeira has a huge advantage in this fight with his striking, as he lands 5.0 significant strikes per minute, compared to only 2.9 for Davis. Not only does he land more strikes, but Teixeira is more accurate when it comes to landing those strikes at 43 percent, compared to 35 percent for his opponent. Teixeira has tremendous power in his striking, making him very difficult to defeat. This match will come down to who is able to control the speed and tempo of the fight, and Teixeira wants to turn this into a slugfest.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Fabio Maldonado (21-7) vs. Hans Stringer (22-5-3)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Teixeira -290, Davis +225
Fabio Maldonado looks to bounce back from a tough loss to as he takes on Hans Stringer at UFC 179 in Brazil on Saturday night.
Maldonado is looking to bounce back from an embarrassing loss to Stipe Miocic in his last match on May 31. Maldonado filled in for Junior Dos Santos in Brazil, but was unable to compete as Miocic knocked him out in 35 seconds. Before that loss, Maldonado was on a three-fight winning streak. When he is on top form, Maldonado has elite knockout power. He does a great job of mixing up his jabs to setting his opponent up for his vicious striking. With another opportunity to fight in his home city, Maldonado will have to get off to a faster start in this match. Stringer comes into this match fresh off a victory in his first career UFC match against Francimar Barroso on March 23. In that bout, he was able to get the victory by way of split decision. The 27-year-old from the Netherlands is a powerful fighter who has shown the ability to win any kind of matchup.
Maldonado has 21 victories thus far in his career, with 13 of them coming by knockout. He also has six wins by decision and another two by submission. His biggest advantage will be his ability to land the significant strike, as he averages 6.18 per minute. Compare that to Stringer, who averages only 2.93, and Maldonado will have to control the tempo of the fight. He also lands a better percentage of his attempts at 61 percent, compared to 57 percent for Stringer. If this match turns into a brawl, then Maldonado will be in great position to get the victory. However, if this match goes the distance, then Stringer will have a chance to pull off the slight upset.
Stringer has 22 wins in his career, with 10 of them coming by way of knockout. He also has seven wins by submission and five wins by decision. Neither Maldonado nor Stringer is great at grappling, but Stringer does have a slight advantage (1 to 0.47). However, he is very inaccurate when it comes to landing his takedowns, converting only 12.5 percent of his attempts. If Stringer is unable to keep this match from turning into a brawl, it will be over quickly. In Maldonado’s fight against Miocic, he was careless, and got knocked out quick. Maldonado will come into this match much more focused, so being able to get off to a fast start for Stringer will be key.