UFC 182 Preview
By Sportsbook.ag
Event: UFC 182
Date: Sat. January, 3, 2015
TV/Time: (FS1/PPV, 10:00 p.m. ET)
Venue: MGM Grand Arena
City: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Light Heavyweight Championship - Jon Jones (20-1) vs. Daniel Cormier (15-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Jones -170, Cormier +140
The light heavyweight belt will be on the line Saturday night as Jon Jones takes on Daniel Cormier in the main event at UFC 182 in Las Vegas.
Every so often in the UFC, there is a fight that gets taken to the next level because of trash talk away from the mat, and this is one of those fights. During a press conference promoting UFC 182, these two came to blows during the photo opportunities. Jones is still one of the most dominating fighters in the UFC history, but he has been tested in the past two fights like he has never been tested before. Against Alexander Gustafsson and Glover Teixeira, Jones was not able to unleash the devastating knockout he usually does, but he showed that he can win a fight in many different ways.
One thing for sure, is that his opponent Saturday, Daniel Cormier, will be ready to go. The 35-year-old from California is undefeated in his fighting career, and he is coming off an impressive submission victory against Dan Henderson. Cormier has made it his mission to take the belt away from Jones ever since moving down a weight class, and on Saturday, he gets his chance.
"Bones" Jones has 20 wins in his career, with eight of them coming by knockout. He also has six wins by both submission and decision. His biggest advantage in the octagon is always his reach, and that will be the key in this fight. He stands five inches taller than Cormier, and he will have to use that length against a wrestler with the skill of Cormier.
At 27 years old, Jones is just now entering the prime of his career, which is a scary thought for the rest of the class. Besides the length, the tale of the tape is very close between these two in landing significant strikes (4.37 for Jones and 4.17 for Cormier) and grappling (2.37 takedowns for Jones and 2.17 for Cormier). For Jones to be victorious, he just has to stick to his normal fighting routine, and be ready to go from the beginning.
"DC" Cormier has 15 wins in his career, with eight wins by knockouts. He also has five wins by decision and two by submission. He was a former All-American wrestler at Oklahoma State, and if he is able to take this fight to the ground, he will be in great shape to get the victory. Jones does an outstanding job of defending against the takedown (96% takedown defense), and that is because his opponents can’t get the proper grip on him.
Cormier will be as good of a wrestler that Jones has ever faced, meaning Jones is going to have to protect against the takedown. Cormier can’t let his emotions allow him to not fight smart. If he is able to get Jones to the championship rounds, he will be in great shape to get the win.
Lightweight Bout - Donald Cerrone (25-6) vs. Myles Jury (15-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Cerrone -180, Jury +147
Donald Cerrone and Myles Jury square off on Saturday in a UFC 182 lightweight fight that could have title implications in the future.
Very few fighters are working in as many matches yearly as Donald Cerrone, who is one of the best conditioned athletes in the sport. He enters this fight on a five-match winning streak, with all five of those fights happening since November 16, 2013. In his last fight against Eddie Alvarez on Sept. 27, he was able to get the unanimous decision victory. He is extremely quick, and he has the ability to win a match in many different ways.
Much like the headline fight (Jon Jones vs. Daniel Cormier), this matchup is also personal, as Cerrone made some comments about Jury not being a true undefeated. Jury has taken care of business in every fight that he has been put in, but this will definitely be the toughest opponent he has ever fought. In his last fight against Takanori Gomi on Sept. 20, he showed huge knockout power by winning the fight in only 1:32. These two are both looking to get another signature victory, which should set up for a matchup even more explosive than Jones and Cormier.
"Cowboy" Cerrone has 25 wins in his career, with the majority of them coming by way of submission (15). He also has six wins by decision and four by knockout. This is a fight where both competitors have different strengths, and for Cerrone, his will be in his striking acumen. He averages 3.96 significant strikes per minute, compared to 2.67 for Jury.
Not only does he land more punches, he also is much more accurate when throwing those strikes at 47 percent, compared to 37 percent for Jury. Since Cerrone has really focused back on his career, he has been on a different level than he has ever been. For Jury, this is an opportunity to move up the lightweight rankings in a big way.
"Fury" Jury has 15 wins in his career, with eight wins by knockout. He also has four wins by submission, and three by decision. The 26-year-old from Michigan has shown early in his career that he has a chance to be a star in the sport, but he has to control the tempo of this fight. While Cerrone has the advantage standing up, Jury is very good on the mat. He has a takedown average of 3.18, compared to 1.43 for Cerrone.
He is also very efficient at getting his opponent to the ground (67%), while Cerrone is susceptible to the takedown. This matchup is going to come down to which fighter is able to control the tempo. If Cerrone gets off to a fast start, he could make it very difficult for Jury to get the win.
Other UFC 182 Bouts - Odds per Sportsbook.ag
Middleweight Bout:
Brad Tavares +100
Nate Marquardt -130
Flyweight Bout:
Kyoji Horiguchi -650
Louis Gaudinot +425
Welterweight Bout:
Hector Lombard -650
Josh Burkman +450
Lightweight Bout:
Danny Castillo -245
Paul Felder +197
Bantamweight Bout:
Cody Garbrandt +147
Marcus Brimage -180
Heavyweight Bout:
Jared Cannonier +195
Shawn Jordan -240
Lightweight Bout:
Evan Dunham -450
Rodrigo Damm +325
Welterweight Bout:
Mats Nilsson +140
Omari Akhmedov -170
Women's Bantamweight Bout:
Alexis Dufresne -195
Marion Reneau +160
UFC 182 Odds and Picks
By: Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS – UFC 182 comes to us Saturday night from MGM Grand Garden Arena here in Las Vegas with the highly-anticipated light heavyweight title fight between champion Jon Jones and undefeated challenger Daniel Cormier (10 p.m. ET, PPV). Jones, who won the title back in 2011 by stopping Mauricio “Shogun” Rua in the third round, is a -160 favorite to retain his title, with Cormier getting +140 odds as the underdog.
Jones (20-1-0) has been many MMA experts’ top pound-for-pound fighter for several years, easily dominating his opposition in most of his title defenses. Back in 2013, Jones was given his stiffest test, when he was down on most score cards going into the late rounds against Alexander Gustafsson. He was, however, able to rally late and come away with a unanimous decision. Earlier this year, Jones put in a much better performance by dominating Glover Teixeira in an easy five-round unanimous decision victory.
This fight with Cormier was originally set for September, but a knee injury forced the champ to pull out of the fight, forcing it to be rescheduled for Saturday night.
Cormier (15-0-0) could be the champ’s biggest challenge yet and will certainly test Jones’ ability to defend the takedown. He might be the best wrestler in all of MMA.
Cormier's last fight was an easy third-round stoppage of Dan Henderson. He might be getting a little too much credit on the betting line for that win, as Henderson, who is 43 and fighting at a higher weight class than he should be at this time of his career, was dominated from the start and offered little competition.
Cormier also has decision wins in the UFC over veteran heavyweights Frank Mir and Roy Nelson, although both of those fighters are clearly on the downside of their careers. Surely Cormier will want to use his wrestling here in an attempt to get inside of Jones’ tremendous reach advantage. Remember, only Stefan Struve, a heavyweight who stands almost seven feet, can match Jones’ reach. They are tied for the longest reach in the UFC at 84 inches.
The betting on this fight will mirror many of the big MMA and boxing matches here in Vegas. The majority of bets will come in on the underdog, but the larger bets that will drive the line higher will be on the favorite.
Jones is ready for a peak performance Saturday night, and if he performs at his highest level, Cormier just won’t have enough to beat him.
If you’re looking to bet Jones, get it early, as the bigger bets will come in the day of the fight and drive this line closer to 2-1. If you’re looking to play Cormier, wait as long as possible to get the best number.
The undercard
On the undercard comes a lightweight fight between 4th-ranked Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone and 8th-ranked Myles Jury. Cerrone, clearly the bigger name here, is a -200 favorite, with Jury getting +160 odds as the underdog.
Cerrone (25-6-0) got a very popular win in his last fight, a decision over Eddie Alvarez. However, he was staggered several times in that fight and might be overvalued here. Jury, undefeated at 15-0, could be a little under the radar here and looks primed to pull off a mild upset.
Go with Myles Jury at +160 to take out Donald Cerrone.