UFC 185 Preview
Sportsbook.ag
Event: UFC 185
Date: Saturday, Mar. 14, 2015
TV/Time: (PPV, 10:00 p.m. ET)
Venue: Staples Center
Location: American Airlines Center
Lightweight Championship - Anthony Pettis (18-2-0) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (23-7-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Pettis -425, dos Anjos +345
Anthony “Showtime” Pettis attempts to win his sixth straight fight and defend the lightweight title against Rafael dos Anjos.
Pettis earned the shot at the lightweight title following three consecutive solid fights in which he had two first round knockouts. He then took on a tough Benson Henderson for rights to the belt and had no issues taking him down with an armbar submission towards the end of the first round. “Showtime” brings to the octagon exactly what his nickname states, a show, as he has training in a multitude of different fighting styles and has the athletic ability to create some amazing knockouts.
On the other side, dos Anjos has been given his first chance at a title behind a recent three-fight winning streak in which he has won twice by a knockout punch. He only has one loss to his credit since the start of 2012 and typically goes the full length of the bout, winning by decision in five of the eight victories; all of which were three rounds. Pettis certainly has the upper-hand here with his ability to get creative and also sneak in plenty of knockouts but he will need to make sure he doesn’t wear himself down against a fighter who has no issues taking the fight to its maximum number of rounds.
Anthony Pettis is an exciting fighter to watch with his high-flying kicks which allow him to either get a surprise knockout or just get his opposition on the ground where he has the strength to earn a submission. All-in-all, Pettis has 18 victories to his name, eight coming via submission, seven by knockout and just two by way of decision. His only two losses also came after a full slate of rounds; one of which was a split decision.
While he is creative with his approach, he is not overly aggressive, landing a mere 2.2 significant strikes per minute on a solid 44% accuracy. The big advantage for “Showtime” is the unexpected takedown as his competitors cannot often predict when he is coming with a specific type of attack, and when he does he typically can get them on the mat with 76% of his takedown attempts ending in success. His athleticism also warrants an impressive defense as he deflects 64% of strikes attempted and 69% of takedown tries. Pettis has the edge in age, height, reach and athletic ability in this one, so a loss would be a big disappointment.
Rafael dos Anjos had a rough start to his UFC career, losing four of his first eight fights with all four of the losses going the full three rounds. Since then he has just one defeat in the last nine attempts and has really showed up recently with two knockouts against Jason High and Benson Henderson, followed by a dominating performance and a unanimous decision in his last matchup with Nate Diaz in December. In that fight, he landed 77 significant strikes on 119 attempts (64%) and showed incredible defense with Diaz landing just 13-of-104 (12%).
This was a very solid showing and his striking accuracy in the match was much higher than his career average of 39%. His pace is a little quicker than his opponents in this one, as he averages 2.9 significant strikes per minute, but opens himself up to some pain with 2.4 strikes absorbed per minute. With his solid yet unspectacular defense, this will be a tough fight to take all five rounds against a super talented fighter like “Showtime” Pettis.
Other UFC 185 Bouts
Womens Bantamweight Matchup
Larissa Pacheco -140
Germaine de Randamie +110
Lightweight Matchup
Joseph Duffy -600
Jake Lindsey +425
Flyweight Matchup
Sergio Pettis -475
Ryan Benoit +350
Heavyweight Matchup
Jared Rosholt -330
Josh Copeland +250
Lightweight Matchup
Daron Cruickshank -175
Beneil Dariush +145
Middleweight Matchup
Elias Theodorou -360
Roger Narvaez +280
Lightweight Matchup
Ross Pearson -425
Sam Stout +315
Flyweight Matchup
Henry Cejudo -500
Chris Cariaso +375
Heavyweight Matchup
Alistair Overeem -195
Roy Nelson +160
Welterweight Matchup
Johny Hendricks -400
Matt Brown +300
Womens Strawweight Matchup
Carla Esparza -185
Joanna Jedrzejczyk +150
UFC 185 Odds and Picks
By Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS -- UFC 185 comes to us Saturday night from Dallas, Texas, with a lightweight title fight between champion Anthony "Showtime" Pettis and No. 1 contender Rafael dos Anjos. This fight opened with Pettis about a -350 favorite, but the line has drifted up to -450 at most books, with some as high as -500. dos Anjos, the challenger, gets odds of about +350 as the underdog.
Showtime (18-2) has become one of the biggest stars in the UFC with his exciting style and ability to finish fights. He became champion back in August 2013 by submitting Benson Henderson and taking his title in the process. After over a year off, Pettis cemented himself as the king of the lightweights by submitting Gilbert Melendez in the second round in December. Pettis, 28, is on a five-fight winning streak and in the prime of his career. It seems the sky's the limit for him in the UFC.
dos Anjos (23-7) represents a tough challenge here, though, as he is on a three-fight win streak of his own. His last fight saw him pick apart Nate Diaz in December, gaining an easy unanimous-decision victory. Before that, he KO'ed Henderson in the first round in August.
The feeling here is this fight will take place on the feet, as both fighters have preferred to use their striking games as opposed to their ground games lately. If that occurs, look for Showtime to have the advantage -- his speed is superior to other lightweights.
Pettis also has devastating kicks as he showed when finishing the very tough Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone in the first round back in 2013. Still, one would think dos Anjos, who also has a very good ground game, would like to keep the fight standing and look for the knockout.
The Linemakers lean: At the opening price of -350, this fight was still in range for a play on Pettis. But with Showtime's odds now as high as -500, any value in betting the favorite is gone. Pettis will retain his title -- and he is on too much of a roll right to go against -- but the price is a little hard to swallow against an opponent as tough as dos Anjos.
Undercard
Some good looking plays on the undercard start out in the heavyweight division, with Alistair Overeem (38-14) taking on "Big Country" Roy Nelson (20-10). Neither fighter has been particularly reliable lately, but Overeem looked good in his last fight when stopping Stefan Struve in the first round. Nelson is coming off a KO loss to Mark Hunt and has lost three of his last four fights.
Overeem lays odds of about -200 here, and that seems like a fair price for a fighter who has always had a ton of potential but lacks consistency.
The Linemakers lean: Nelson's best fights may be behind him and his skills and speed could be declining. Lay the -200 with Alistair Overeem over Roy Nelson in a fight that has the potential to be over quickly.
Another huge fight in the welterweight division features former champion Johny Hendricks (16-3) and Matt Brown (19-12). Hendricks is a -380 favorite, with Brown getting odds of about +300 as the underdog. Both fighters are coming off losses via close decisions to current welterweight champ Robbie Lawler.
The Linemakers lean: This could be a tough spot for Hendricks to lay a fairly big price. Matt Brown's fights are almost always close and action-packed, so getting 3-to-1 odds is an attractive proposition.
A lightweight bout on the undercard has Ross Pearson as a -360 favorite over Sam Stout. Pearson (16-8) has been under the radar for a while in the UFC and is much better than his record indicates. Stout (20-10-1) has lost four of his last seven fights and seems in deep here.
The Linemakers lean: Pearson opened at -260 and has been bet up steadily since the fight was first posted. Look for Pearson to get the win, but place your bet early -- this line will probably go over -400 before the bell rings Saturday night.