UFC 186 Betting Notes
By Sportsbook.ag
Event: UFC 186
Date: Sat. April, 25, 2015
TV/Time: (PPV, 10:00 p.m. ET)
Venue: Bell Centre
City: Montreal, Quebec
Flyweight Championship: Demetrious Johnson (21-2-1) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (15-1-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Johnson -155 Horiguchi +125
Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson will look to defend his title for the sixth time when he takes on Kyoji Horiguchi at UFC 186.
The flyweight title has been held by just one man, Demetrious Johnson, who grabbed it back at UFC 152 in late 2012 and since has defended his belt five times. He has used a multitude of different ways to get these wins, twice winning by unanimous decision in five rounds, twice by submission and once by a first round knockout. The 5’3”, 125-pound fighter has just two losses to his name, both coming by decision with the last one coming in October of 2011. Johnson is widely considered one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the history of the sport and will look to continue that dominance at this event.
His opponent, Kyoji Horiguchi, was the bantamweight champion in the Shooto circuit in Japan and made his way over to UFC in late 2013. He has fought four times in the states, with three of the fights being in the flyweight division, and came away the victor each time. Twice he won by decision while getting the other two via knockout (punches) in the first seven minutes of the match. That is typically the way that he goes with nine of his career 15 wins coming by TKO mainly with punches. He is a second degree black belt and should be able to give Johnson quite a fit in this fight.
“Mighty Mouse” has been absolutely dominant in his recent fights as he defends his title, landing 361 significant strikes compared to just 135 from his opponent. Overall he averages 3.54 significant strikes per minute and lands them with 52% accuracy. This is not what typically puts him above his opposition by so much, but rather it is his ability to get the takedown and wear them down. He gets 3.24 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon and has 18 total takedowns in his five defenses of this title.
His most recent defense was one of his more impressive as he won in the second round with a Kimura submission. He landed 27-of-43 significant strikes (62%) against Chris Cariaso back at UFC 178 and let him only get in six strikes. His defense has been great as well, as he deflects 66% of strike attempts against him and 64% of takedown attempts. Johnson has been one of the more dominant fighters in the history of the UFC and it is hard to imagine him losing to anybody.
If anybody can give Johnson a run for his money for the title, it is Horiguchi as he brings a flurry of punches to the octagon. He gets in 3.99 significant strikes per minute and pummeled Louis Gaudinot 44 times, including landing 68% of his attempts at his head.
He doesn’t have the best accuracy with a mere 48% of his strikes hitting the mark, but his eight career wins by punches shows how solid those landed punches are. While he is throwing a ton of hits, he is also doing a fantastic job at avoiding his opponent and takes a mere 1.66 strikes per minute, deflecting 69% of his opposition’s attempts.
His weakness could be the takedown and he only has been able to defend against them 50% of them time, hitting the mat twice in his four matches in UFC. Johnson also won’t have to worry about submissions as Horiguchi has yet to earn a win with this tactic and has yet to even attempt one in his four UFC battles. He will need to land a timely punch in order to take down the champion in this one.
Other UFC 186 Bouts - Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
Middleweight Matchup
Michael Bisping -150
C.B. Dollaway +130
Light Heavyweight Matchup
Quinton Jackson -315
Fabio Maldonado +235
Catchweight Matchup (160 lbs)
John Makdessi -180
Shane Campbell +155
Bantamweight Matchup
Yves Jabouin +340
Thomas Almeida -420
Welterweight Matchup
Patrick Côté -180
Joe Riggs +155
Women's Bantamweight Matchup
Alexis Davis +160
Sarah Kaufman -190
Lightweight Matchup
Chad Laprise -290
Bryan Barberena +240
Lightweight Matchup
Olivier Aubin-Mercier -350
David Michaud +290
Welterweight Matchup
Nordine Taleb -260
Chris Clements +215
Women's Strawweight Matchup
Jessica Rakoczy +155
Valérie Létourneau -180
Women's Strawweight Matchup
Aisling Daly +210
Randa Markos -250
UFC 186′S Fights To Avoid Betting
By Gabe Killian
Mmaoddsbreaker.com
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Montreal, Quebec, Canada this Saturday night (April 25, 2015) with UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi. The main card will get underway at 10pm ET on Pay Per View, with preliminary action preceding it at 8pm ET on Fox Sports 1 and 6:30pm on UFC Fight Pass prior to that. If interested in wagering on this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at 5Dimes Sportsbooks.
My fights to AVOID betting for UFC 186 are.
Lightweight bout: David Michaud (+290) vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier (-350)
Fight Prediction: I favor Aubin-Mercier to win this fight, however I don’t agree with the current betting odds. I am looking at a “dog or pass” situation here, and ultimately, I am going to have to pass. I think Michaud is better than a lot of people think and won’t be surprised if he edges this one out. The biggest question I have going into this fight is how much each fighter has improved since their last outing. I shall have my answers come Saturday, as I sit back and enjoy this 155-pound scrap without having any action on the line.
Gabe’s Call: Aubin-Mercier by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
Welterweight bout: Chris Clements (+220) vs Nordine Taleb (-260)
Fight Prediction: I agree with Taleb being the favorite in this contest, but I don’t agree with the current betting odds. I think this is another “dog or pass” situation, and I am again opting to avoid making the play on the underdog. Taleb should win this fight, but laying -260 on him is asking too much.
Gabe’s Call: Taleb by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
Women’s Strawweight bout: Aisling Daly (+220) vs Ronda Markos (-260)
Fight Prediction: I was really hoping to get Markos at a better price here, because I think she’s going to pull this one out. That said, I can’t justify playing her at near 3-to-1 odds. At these odds, I strongly considered making a play on the underdog Daly, as I do think she is a live dog. However, I could not get myself to pull the trigger on it, because even though I think Markos is being overvalued here, I do think she is going to get her hand raised in Montreal this Saturday night. I think Daly offers more betting value than Michaud and Clements, and enough so that I usually would have at least made a small play, but this is one of those instances where I’m gonna stick with my gut, ignore the value, and avoid the play altogether.
Gabe’s Call: Markos by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
UFC 186 Odds and Picks
By Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com
UFC 186 comes to us Saturday night from Montreal, with the flyweight title on the line between champion Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson and 7th-ranked Kyoji Horiguchi. Johnson, a top-five pound-for-pound fighter in all of MMA, is a prohibitive -900 favorite to retain his title, while Horiguchi gets +600 odds as the underdog.
Since winning the flyweight title back in 2012, Johnson (21-2) has looked just about unbeatable. Unfortunately for his opponents, he just keeps getting better. Going back a few years, Johnson was mainly a great wrestler with incredible cardio. In his last few fights, Johnson has shown improved striking and submission ability, making him a very difficult opponent to deal with.
But we always stress betting value here at The Linemakers, and value is of particular importance in MMA, where there are so many ways to win or lose a fight. Johnson at -900 represents no value, although he should easily win this bout. But upsets can come our of nowhere in MMA, and they're often hard to see coming.
Horiguchi (15-1), who did most of his early MMA work in the Shooto promotion in Japan, has reeled off four-straight wins since signing with the UFC but against much weaker competition than he'll have to deal with Saturday night.
Horiguchi's only defeat was to Masakatsu Ueda, who used superior wrestling and takedowns to dominate Horiguchi. That doesn't bode well for the underdog here, because Johnson may well be the best pound-for-pound wrestler in all of MMA.
The Linemakers lean: This is a chance to see a great fighter in Johnson probably defend his title easily, but we'll never argue with anyone who wants to throw a few bucks on a dog as high as +600. While we look for "Mighty Mouse" Johnson to retain his title Saturday night against Kyoji Horiguchi, laying -900 does not interest us.
Undercard
Match 10
Michael Bisping "The Count" takes on C.B. Dollaway. in a middleweight bout on the undercard. Bisping, who has traded wins and losses for a 3-4 record over his last seven fights,is a -150 favorite over Dollaway, who gets +130 odds as the underdog.
Both fighters are coming off losses. Bisping (25-7) was finished in the second round by top middleweight contender Luke Rockhold, while Dollaway (15-6) never made it out of the first round against Lyoto Machida.
Despite his mediocre recent record, Bisping has been pretty reliable against weaker competition, as he usually only losses to top-level fighters. Dollaway has been in UFC for seven years and has never been able to get over the hump and beat a top opponent.
The Linemakers lean: This should be a fairly even contest, but Bisping is the more well-rounded fighter and should be able to dictate the pace here against Dollaway. Lay the small price of -150 with Michael Bisping.
Match 7
Also on the undercard, local fighter Patrick Cote (20-9) should get a big lift from the home crowd when he takes on veteran Joe Riggs (40-15) in a welterweight contest. Cote is the favorite at odds of -200.
Cote, who in 2008 fought Anderson Silva for the middleweight title, has won seven of his last nine fights dating back to 2011. Riggs, 32, already has 55 fights on his resume and has bounced around many promotions the last few years. He's probably getting his last shot in the UFC
The Linemakers lean: The price on Cote looks fair since he's the better fighter with home-crowd advantage, which won't hurt if the fight goes to a decision. Take Patrick Cote and lay the -200 against Joe Riggs.