UFC 200 Betting Preview: Brock Lesnar vs. Mark Hunt
By MMA OddsBreaker
The co-main event of UFC 200 is a classic clash of styles as Mark Hunt and his brutal knockout power welcomes back Brock Lensar and his world-class wrestling back to the octagon.
Mark Hunt (Record: 12-10, -160 Favorite, Fighter Grade: B+)
Mark Hunt, the Auckland, New Zealand-born and Australia-trained fighter, has been a fixture in the top 10 of the UFC’s heavyweight rankings. Hunt is on a two-fight winning streak, knocking out Frank Mir and Antonio Silva back-to-back in the first round. Hunt has competed for the UFC title, but it’s safe to say this UFC 200 bout will be his highest profile fight to date.
The eighth ranked heavyweight in the UFC, the "Super Samoan" is one of the most feared fighters in the division. In a division filled with tall fighters with superior reach, Hunt gets by on powerful and skillful striking. Of his 12 career MMA wins, nine of them have come by knockout. He’s the only fighter to knock out Roy Nelson inside a UFC Octagon. He did so with superior timing and powerful hands. That’s what you get with Mark Hunt; a talented striker in a rather unusual body for high level MMA.
Additionally, Hunt is as resilient as they come. His first fight with Antonio Silva was one of the all-time great fights as he was able to battle from nearly being finished multiple times to find his way to the scorecards. While he was outclassed by Stipe Miocic, he was able to survive nearly five rounds with the now heavyweight champion.
Hunt has made some effort to work on his ground game, but it’s still very much a liability and can be finished via submission. Of Hunt's 10 career losses, six of them have been by submission. However, in a traditional stand up exchange, Hunt can compete with anybody in the UFC.
Brock Lesnar (Record: 5-3, +140 Underdog, Fighter Grade: B+)
The Beast Incarnate returns to the UFC for the first time since a December 2011 loss to Alistair Overeem. Brock Lesnar has been granted permission by WWE for a one-off fight in the UFC and the former UFC champion has been keeping in great physical shape as a fixture at the WWE’s biggest events.
A two-time Division I All-American and one time national champion in collegiate wrestling, Lesnar’s game starts and ends with his wrestling. He’s an imposing figure that is arguably the best athlete to ever compete in the UFC’s heavyweight division. In his eight career fights, Lesnar landed an incredible 57 percent of his takedown attempts and was able to score takedowns in all but one of his fights.
Lesnar has very good ground-and-pound and will wallop opponents from that position. He also has an underrated submission game and can finish from top position. While Lesnar is a great athlete with decent movement, his stand-up is a bit too tight and his strikes are not very free flowing. In a prolonged stand-up exchange, Lesnar is liable to be caught by a quality striker.
Match-up
The UFC booked a great stylistic clash for its UFC 200 co-main event. Mark Hunt is one of the best kickboxers in MMA and is a threat to knock out his opponent in every single fight he is put in. Meanwhile, Brock Lesnar is perhaps the best heavyweight wrestler currently signed to a UFC contract. He’s a former NCAA Champion in wrestling and his athletic, physical style makes him a difficult opponent to prepare for.
This is a difficult fight to call as both fighters have a clear path to victory. Hunt is more than capable of knocking out Lesnar; his kicks are devastating and his punches are accurate and powerful. With that said, he has to stay on the feet to be a factor. That’s going to be difficult to do against Lesnar who is a very good offensive wrestler.
At the beginning of each round, Hunt will be looking for the knockout, but expect Lesnar to avoid the early strikes and score a takedown quickly in this bout, as he knows he cannot compete with Hunt on the feet. On the ground, Lesnar has a big advantage and will use his length and positioning to look for a submission. Given Hunt’s rather novice approach to grappling, Lesnar has a great chance of scoring a submission win. If you’re looking for a long shot prop to play at UFC 200, Lesnar by submission at +700 is a solid option.
Hunt, Lesnar headline UFC 200
By Sportsbook.ag
Brock Lesnar (5-3-0) vs. Mark Hunt (12-10-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Lesnar +147, Hunt -180
Brock Lesnar returns to the octagon for the first time since 2011 against Mark Hunt at UFC Fight Night 200.
Despite only fighting in eight competitive MMA bouts, Brock Lesnar is a former UFC Heavyweight Champion and one of the most popular figures in the sport.
He has not fought since December 2011, when he lost to Alistair Overeem, and in his previous fight he lost his UFC Heavyweight Championship to Cain Velasquez.
In what will very likely be his last outing, Lesnar will look to defeat Mark Hunt. Despite his less-than-stellar career record of 12-10-1, the New Zealand native has won each of his past two fights, including a Performance of the Night victory over Frank Mir just four months ago.
This match is now the UFC Fight Night 200 headliner after Jon Jones was suspended for doping on Jul 6.
Lesnar lands 3.57 significant strikes per minute at an impressive rate of 73.45 percent. He absorbs 2.52 significant strikes per minute and defends them at a 49.57 percent clip.
The 38-year-old South Dakota native averages 3.87 takedown attempts per 15 minutes at an accuracy of 57.14 percent, and successfully defends takedowns 60.00 percent of the time.
Lesnar averages 0.64 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He is big, powerful guy, but his dedication to the sport has been questioned. He has spent a lot of time in the WWE and that half-commitment to UFC could come back to haunt him against the ferocious Hunt.
Hunt averages 3.24 significant strikes per minute but has a subpar 44.14 percent accuracy. He absorbs 2.69 such strikes per minute with a 53.21 percent defense rate. The 42-year-old New Zealander averages just 0.69 takedown attempts per 15 minutes at a clip of 55.56 percent.
He does, however, successfully defend 69.33 percent of takedown attempts, and averages 0.28 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He’ll need to make sure he is clean in his technique, as Lesnar could be a bit rusty coming into this one. Hunt can really take advantage of that on Saturday.
Other UFC 200 Bouts & Odds
Lightweight Bout
Takanori Gomi +210
Jim Miller -265
Middleweight Bout
Gegar Mousasi -265
Thiago Santos +210
Lightweight Bout
Joe Lauzon -115
Diego Sanchez -115
Lightweight Bout
Enrique Martin +250
Sage Northcutt -330
Bantamweight Bout
Raphael Assuncao +295
TJ Dillashaw -390
Welterweight Bout
Kelvin Gastelum +100
Johny Hendricks -130
Womens Bantamweight Bout
Juliana Pena +135
Cat Zingano -165
Heavyweight Bout
Travis Browne +220
Cain Velasquez -285
Womens Bantamweight Bout
Amanada Nunes +225
Miesha Tate -290
Featherweight Bout
Frankie Edgar -125
Jose Aldo -105
UFC 200 Preview & Picks
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
With the removal of Jon Jones from the UFC 200 main event against Daniel Cormier due to a USADA violation, Miesha Tate and Amanda Nunes will now serve as the headliner in Tate’s first defense of her women’s bantamweight title.
What a wild 48 hours of drama leading into the promotion’s biggest event ever Saturday night at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas! First, Jones did his thing, recklessly sabotaging his career yet again. Then the company moved swiftly in finding a replacement for Jones in former middleweight kingpin Anderson ‘The Spider’ Silva, who will now face Cormier in a three-round non-title fight at 205 pounds.
When the Jones news broke late Wednesday night, the UFC announced that the heavyweight scrap between Mark Hunt and Brock Lesnar would be the main event. Once Silva-Cormier was made official Thursday night, the promotion reversed course and made Tate-Nunes the headliner.
Then on Friday morning, Tate literally made weight at the buzzer. The new rules dictate that all fighters must make weight by 10:00 a.m. the day before the fight. Tate walked into the room, stripped down naked (behind a towel) and tipped the scales at 134.5 pounds.
UFC officials confirmed to media members that had the clock hit 10:01 without her making weight, Tate-Nunes would’ve been a non-title fight. If she didn’t make it to the facility by 10:00 a.m., she would’ve been yanked off the card altogether.
As of early Friday afternoon, most books had Tate (18-5 MMA, 5-2 UFC) Tate installed as a -250 ‘chalk’ with Nunes as the +210 underdog (risk $100 to win $210). The total was 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -235, ‘under’ +195).
Tate lost his first two fights in the UFC, dropping her debut to Cat Zingano by third-round KO in the Fight of the Night at the TUF 17 Finale. When Zingano went down with a knee injury in training, Tate took her spot alongside Ronda Rousey as a coach on the next season of The Ultimate Fighter.
These bitter rivals, who had met previously when Rousey won Tate’s Strikeforce belt with a first-round armbar finish, feuded throughout the season. Then they collided again at UFC 168 with Rousey earning another armbar submission early in the third round. The bout took Fight of the Night honors.
Tate’s climb back into title contention started with a unanimous-decision victory over Liz Carmouche at UFC on FOX 11. Next, she won a UD over Rin Nakai at Fight Night 52. In January of 2015, Tate took a majority decision from Sara McMann at UFC 183. Then last summer in Chicago, she won the second and third rounds to slip past Jessica Eye by UD.
After the win over Eye, the UFC announced that Tate would get next crack at Rousey’s belt. However, several weeks later, the promotion changed course and booked Rousey to take on Holly Holm, who pulled one of the biggest upsets in UFC history with a second-round KO.
With Rousey going on a hiatus that was previously planned before the defeat, Holm wanted to remain active. Therefore, she was booked to face Tate in her first title defense at UFC 196 in March. Holm kept the fight standing in Rounds 1, 3 and 4 and won those rounds rather decisively. Tate scored a takedown and dominated in the second stanza, but she went into the fifth knowing she had to get the finish.
She was able to get Holm in the clinch, take her back and go for the rear-naked choke. Holm correctly defended the choke, but Tate wasn’t letting go once she got underneath. Holm refused to tap and went to sleep before the referee intervened. Tate earned a Performance of the Night bonus in earning he fifth consecutive win.
Nunes (12-4 MMA, 5-1 UFC) won her first two UFC fights before losing by third-round KO to Zingano at UFC 178. Since then, the 28-year-old Brazilian has won three in a row, including a UD triumph over Valentina Shevchenko at UFCD 196 in March.
Prediction: I like Tate to win, but the price is too expensive for my taste. I’ll pass.
As of Friday, most betting shops had Hunt (12-10-1 MMA, 7-4-1 UFC) listed as a -170 favorite, leaving Lesnar at +150 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $150). This co-main event isn’t expected to go the distance, evidenced by the expensive odds for gamblers to take ‘under’ 1.5 rounds (-240, ‘over’ +200).
The 38-year-old Lesnar (5-3 MMA, 4-3 UFC) is returning to the Octagon for the first time since 2011. He has had only 34 days to train, but he’s looked in outstanding shape at this week’s media events.
Lesnar won the heavyweight strap by beating Randy Couture by second-round knockout at UFC 91 in November of 2008. He defended his title by destroying Frank Mir in a revenge spot at UFC 100, scoring a second-round KO 17 months after Mir submitted him at UFC 81 in a controversial bout.
Lesnar made his second successful title defense, tying many others for the most in the division’s history, by rallying to submit Shane Carwin at UFC 116 on July 3 of 2010. Carwin battered Lesnar with strikes galore in the opening stanza, but Lesnar somehow weathered the story and Carwin gassed out Round 2.
Lesnar scored the win over Carwin after missing nearly a year while suffering from the disease diverticulitis. At UFC 121 in October of 2010, Lesnar lost his belt to Cain Velasquez, who got back to his feet after an early takedown and went to work with his stand-up game. Velasquez bloodied Lesnar all around the Octagon before referee Herb Dean intervened with 48 seconds remaining in the opening stanza.
After another case of diverticulitis prompted a second surgery, Lesnar returned to face Alistair Overeem at UFC 141. But The ‘Reem caught Lesnar with a thunderous body kick that sent him to the canvas and following up with strikes to end the fight in just 146 seconds. Lesnar immediately announced his retirement to Joe Rogan in the Octagon, and he’s been gone ever since – until Saturday.
Hunt has won back-to-back fights with first-round knockout wins over Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva at UFC 193 and Frank Mir at UFC Fight Night 85. The ‘Super Samoan’ garnered a Performance of the Night bonus with his stoppage victory over Mir in late March.
After getting submitted by Sean McCorkle just 63 seconds into his Octagon debut at UFC 199, Hunt won four consecutive fights over Chris Tuchscherer , Ben Rothwell, Cheick Kongo and Stefan Struve. He earned KO of the Night bonuses in his scalps of Tuchscherer and Struve.
Hunt saw his four-fight winning streak snapped by Junior Dos Santos, who scored a sick KO with a spinning hook kick deep into the third and final round. JDS and Hunt earned Fight of the Night honors. Next, Hunt went to war for 25 minutes with ‘Bigfoot’ Silva in one of the greatest heavyweight fights of all-time. The bout was scored as a majority draw.
Prediction: This is the vintage matchup of fighters who excel at different fighting disciplines. Lesnar was a two-time NCAA champion in wrestling at the University of Minnesota. He has amazing speed and athleticism for a man his size and when he scores takedowns, opponents are in deep trouble and likely facing vicious ground-and-pound punishment. Lesnar has powerful strikes from his stand-up game as well, but he showed a reluctance to taking punches in his matches with Carwin and Velasquez. However, I’m not in the camp of those stating with authority that the fight is over if Lesnar can’t score a takedown. Hunt is, without question, the superior striker, but Lesnar’s heavy hands still give him a chance if he can stay away from Hunt’s haymakers. Speaking of those, Hunt possesses the most power of any fighter on the entire roster. He has scored one-punch, walk-off KOs in each of his last four wins over Struve, Roy Nelson, Bigfoot Silva and Mir. I don’t like to eat ‘chalk’ and -170 is fairly expensive. Nevertheless, I’ll go with 1.5 units on Hunt at -170.
Silva has never been an underdog in his entire career, but he’s a massive ‘dog going up against Cormier, the light-heavyweight champ. As of Friday, most spots had Cormier (17-1 MMA, 6-1 UFC) listed as a -475 ‘chalk,’ while ‘The Spider’ was a +385 underdog (risk $100 to win $385). The total was 2.5 rounds (‘under’ -165, ‘over’ +140).
Silva (33-7, 1 NC MMA, 16-3, 1 NC UFC) was scheduled to face Uriah Hall at UFC 198 in Brazil on May 14, but he fell ill the week of the fight and had to have his gallbladder removed. There was speculation in late May and early June that Hall-Silva might get added to the 200 card, but it didn’t happen.
With Jones out, though, Silva volunteered his services and faces a daunting task on two days of notice. Silva faces a decisive size disadvantage and moves up a weight class here. The 41-year-old Brazilian legend has fought at light heavyweight before, beating Forrest Griffin by first-round KO at UFC 101 and doing the same thing to Stephan Bonnar at UFC 153.
In fact, the win over Bonnar was the last time Silva tasted a victory, which was Oct. 13 in 2012. Silva saw his UFC-record 16-fight winning streak ended at UFC 162 when his show-boating ways got the best of him when Chris Weidman KO’d him late in the second stanza.
In the rematch at UFC 168, Weidman dominated the first round and had Silva badly hurt. Then in Round 2, Silva suffered one of the most grotesque injuries in the sport’s history when a checked leg kicked by Weidman resulted in a compound fracture of Silva’s lower left leg.
He made an incredible recovery, however, and was back in the Octagon 13 months later to face Nick Diaz at UFC 183. Silva captured a UD win, but the result was changed to a no-decision after he popped dirty for multiple banned substances. He was given a nine-month suspension by the Nevada Athletic Commission.
Silva returned to the cage in February and took on Michael Bisping at UFC London. Silva took a narrow UD defeat in a bout that garnered Fight of the Night honors.
Since taking his only career loss to Jones at UFC 182, Cormier won the light-heavyweight belt by rallying to dust Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson by third-round submission. In his first title defense against Alexander Gustafsson, Cormier shook off a big flying knee that had him badly hurt midway through the fight and went on to collect a split-decision victory.
Cormier owns notable career wins over the likes of Bigfoot Silva, Josh Barnett, Frank Mir, Roy Nelson and Dan Henderson. He was the Strikeforce heavyweight champ and made his debut at 205 pounds with the win over Henderson.
Prediction: This matchup reminds me of Cormier’s fight against Henderson in terms of the size difference. Cormier is a natural heavyweight, while Silva is a natural middleweight. I love Silva embracing this enormous challenge and though I’m sure it will pad his wallet handsomely, I think it’s a bad career move. Now obviously, as long as the fight is standing, Silva certainly has a chance of landing a crazy kick or spinning elbow of some sort. Without a doubt, much crazier things have happened. But I’m extremely confident Cormier’s size and wrestling will run the day. My only slight hesitation is that this feels like a letdown spot if we compare MMA to football. Cormier has been prepping for his arch rival and now he fights a guy that’s a monster underdog. Nevertheless, I like two units on the prop bet for Cormier to win inside the distance at a -135 price.
In a rematch of the UFC 156 headliner, Frankie ‘The Answer’ Edgar (20-4-1 MMA, 14-4-1 UFC) will face Jose Aldo for the interim featherweight championship formerly held by Aldo, who won a close UD over Edgar in their first meeting. That fight represented Edgar’s debut at 145 pounds.
Since then, the 34-year-old Edgar has been on a roll, ripping off five consecutive wins over Charles Oliveira, B.J. Penn, Cub Swanson, Urijah Faber and Chad Mendes. Edgar KO’d Mendes in the first round this past December.
Aldo (25-2 MMA, 7-1 UFC) is off his first loss in more than a decade, losing in only 13 seconds to Conor McGregor by KO. Aldo has been the only champ in featherweight history before the defeat. He owns career wins over Mendes (twice), Ricardo Lamas, ‘The Korean Zombie,’ Kenny Florian, Mark Hominick, Swanson and Faber.
As of Friday, most spots had Edgar as a -125 favorite. The total was 4.5 rounds (‘over’ -120, ‘under’ +100). The winner is expected to unify the belt against the current champ in McGregor, who stated earlier this week that he does intend to go back down to 145 after facing Nate Diaz at UFC 202.
Prediction: I would like Edgar, the former lightweight champ, at this inexpensive price against ANYBODY in the 145 or 155-pound division this weekend. He is in his prime and ready for the performance of his career. Give me six units on Edgar at -125. Also, give me one unit on Edgar to win by KO/TKO for a sweet +380 return.
In the opener of the main card at 10:00 p.m. Eastern, former heavyweight champ Cain Velasquez (13-2 MMA, 11-2 UFC) will face Travis Browne. As of Friday, most books had Velasquez installed as a -275 favorite. Browne is +235 on the comeback. The total is 1.5 rounds (-115 either way).
Velasquez, the two-time former heavyweight kingpin, has fought just once since beating Junior dos Santos for a second time at UFC 166 in October of 2013. Various injuries have kept him out of action since with just one exception. He made a bad mistake in only going down to Mexico City a little more than a week before taking on Fabrico Werdum, who fought there previously and spent an entire month prepping for the UFC 188 showdown.
Werdum was clearly more acclimated to the high elevation in Mexico City, whereas we saw Velasquez’s greatest strength – his endless cardio, especially for a heavyweight – become a weakness. Velasquez gassed out early and was getting pounded in the stand-up exchanges through the first two rounds. Then early in Round 3, Velasquez shot for a takedown and Werdum sprawled beautifully and caught Cain in a nasty guillotine choke to win the belt.
Browne (18-3-1 MMA, 9-3-1 UFC) has earned KO of the Night honors four times in victories over Stefan Struve, Gabriel Gonzaga, Alistair Overeem and Josh Barnett. His defeats have come to Bigfoot Silva, Fabricio Werdum and Andrei Arlovski. He has been an underdog three times, compiling a 2-0-1 record. He beat Overeem and Barnett as a ‘dog and fought Cheick Kongo to a draw in a similar spot.
Twelve of Browne’s last 16 fights have ended in Round 1. Eight of Velasquez’s 13 wins have come by first-round finishes.
Prediction: Those stats have me loving the ‘under’ here. I also think Browne has an excellent shot and I won’t turn him down at the generous underdog odds. Give me three units on ‘under’ 1.5 (-115) and I’ll go with Browne at +235 for one unit.
UFC 200 Betting Preview: Miesha Tate vs. Amanda Nunes
By MMA OddsBreaker
The women's bantamweight title is on the line when Miesha Tate goes for her first title defense at UFC 200 when she takes on challenger Amanda Nunes and Covers Expert MMA OddsBreaker breaks it all down.
Amanda Nunes (Record: 12-4, +220 Underdog, Fighter Grade: B+)
The 28-year old Salvador, Bahia, Brazil-born bantamweight Amanda Nunes, enters her first ever UFC title fight on a three-fight winning streak highlighted by a submission win over Sara McMann. Nunes' last loss was in 2014 to fellow UFC 200 fighter Cat Zingano.
In the women’s bantamweight division, there aren’t many knockout threats. With that said, Nunes may be the most feared striker in the division. Of her 12 career wins, nine of them have come by knockout. She’s big for the weight class with a 69 inch reach and uses her size well to wind up and land heavy strikes. So while she can absolutely knock out an opponent on the feet, where she does her best work is on the ground from top control. Nunes averages over two takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon and succeeds in scoring takedowns at a 38 percent clip. She does a very good job at advancing positions to allow herself an opportunity to wail down on her opponent from top control to have an opportunity at a stoppage win due to strikes.
Nunes is excellent in the first round of fights and is typically able to start off with a lead. What has held her back in the past has been conditioning. She slows down significantly in the second round and is running on empty in the third round. In every single third round she has been in during her professional career, she has been out struck decisively. It’s difficult to imagine she’s improved her conditioning enough to be able to go five rounds.
Miesha Tate (Record: 18-5, -260 Favorite, Fighter Grade: A)
The long time high level bantamweight Miesha Tate, enters UFC 200 off the biggest victory of her career. In a fight she was losing heading into the fifth round, Tate was able to take Holly Holm to the mat and submit in her the final round to win the UFC Women’s Bantamweight title. UFC 200 marks Tate’s first championship defense.
When looking at Tate, she doesn’t have a physical appearance that threatens people. It’s her determination that is her biggest asset. She has a never say die attitude and is as resilient as they come inside the octagon. She takes some damage on the feet, but works to push the pace of her fights and has readily been able to find ways to get her fights to the mat. On the ground, she is excellent at maintaining positions and wearing out her opponents.
Whether it’s by ground and pound or submission attempts, she really makes her opponents work. Tate’s conditioning is excellent and tends to get better as her fights progress.
Match-up
An interesting clash of styles highlights the women’s bantamweight championship fight at UFC 200. If Amanda Nunes is going to beat Miesha Tate, she’s going to need to blitz her and lay it on the champion before Tate has a chance to get in the fight. Nine of Nunes’s 12 victories have come inside the opening round of her fights, so she’s certainly capable of a quick and decisive win.
What Nunes' is facing in this fight though is a strong, determined, and battle tested veteran who is as crafty as any fighter in the division. It takes a heck of a lot to finish Tate and to finish her early. Holly Holm didn’t have what it took to finish Tate and it took Ronda Rousey three rounds to finish the champion in their last meeting.
Expect Tate to fight smart and avoid the heavy strikes early in the fight. As the fight moves beyond the first round, look for Nunes to tire and for Tate to take over. If this fight gets to a third round, Nunes will have nothing left for the champion. A tired Nunes will not be able to prevent Tate’s takedowns and the champion will dominate her challenger on the ground where she will look to latch in a submission win to retain her title. At (+130) this is a solid prop worth playing.