UFC 205 - Preliminary Picks
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
The prelims portion of Saturday’s epic UFC 205 card lost a key bout Tuesday when Rashad Evans was forced out of his debut middleweight scrap against Tim Kennedy. The New York Athletic Commission denied Evans a license to compete due to a medical issue. In a statement, the promotion said “there are currently no plans to replace this bout.”
On Thursday, word filtered out that Kennedy and Evans will now tangle in Toronto at UFC 206.
The prelims headliner at Madison Square Garden in New York City will feature New Jersey native Frankie Edgar against Jeremy Stephens. This duo has combined for 43 fights in the promotion with Stephens set to make his 24th walk to the Octagon.
‘The Answer’ is the former lightweight champion who has twice challenged for the featherweight strap. Edgar has lost just twice in the 145-pound loop, including a second decision loss to former featherweight kingpin Jose Aldo at UFC 200 this past July 6.
Edgar (20-5-1 MMA, 14-5-1 UFC) is otherwise unbeaten at 145 with wins over the likes of Charles Oliveira, B.J. Penn, Cub Swanson, Urijah Faber and Chad Mendes. The 35-year-old won the lightweight belt by beating Penn at UFC 112 in April of 2010. Edgar would defend his belt successfully in a rematch with Penn at UFC 118 and then retained the title in a split draw with Gray Maynard at UFC 125.
In a rematch with Maynard at UFC 136, Edgar rallied from an early deficit to score a fourth-round KO win over ‘The Bully.’ However, he lost the belt by dropping a hotly-contested unanimous decision to Benson Henderson at UFC 144. Edgar was given a rematch against Henderson at UFC 150 and I felt he won the bout convincingly, but Henderson was given the split-decision nod.
Since then, Edgar has gone 5-2 at featherweight. He comes to NYC with a No. 2 ranking to take on the seventh-ranked Stephens, who also used to compete in the lightweight division.
As of early Thursday, most books had Edgar installed as a -340 favorite. ‘Little Heathen’ was a +280 underdog, while the total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -215, ‘under’ +175).
Stephens (25-12 MMA, 12-11 UFC) has won five of his eight fights since dropping to 145. He is off a UD win over former bantamweight champ Renan Barao at UFC Fight Night 88 in Las Vegas. Stephens, who was a +145 underdog, took home an extra $50,000 for Fight of the Night honors.
Barao isn’t the only former champion who has tasted defeat against Stephens. When he was competing at 155, Stephens knocked out former lightweight kingpin Rafael dos Anjos in the third round at UFC 91. Stephens has been an underdog 12 times in his career, producing a 5-7 record, but this is the most lucrative ‘dog situation of his 23-fight UFC tenure.
Prediction: Edgar looked a step slow his last time out, but Aldo has the tendency to do that to most fighters. Before that setback, Edgar had looked in prime form during a five-fight winning streak that was capped by a first-round KO of Mendes. Stephens might have the best one-punch KO power in the division, so he has a chance against any foe. Nevertheless, I think Edgar will win a decision, but he’s too expensive to bet on the straight price. I’ll go with a one-unit play on Edgar to win by decision that has a -124 price for the prop wager at 5Dimes.eu.
In the lightweight division, second-ranked Khabib Nurmagomedov will take on sixth-ranked Michael Johnson. As of Thursday, most spots had Nurmagomedov listed as the -290 ‘chalk.’ Johnson is a +240 ‘dog and the total is 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -145, ‘under’ +125).
Nurmagomedov (23-0 MMA, 7-0 UFC) will grace the Octagon for just the second time since winning a unanimous decision over Dos Anjos on April 19 of 2014. The 28-year-old wrestler from Dagestan has dealt with multiple injuries during this span, winning his only fight over late replacement Darrell Horcher by second-round knockout this past April in Tampa.
Nurmagomedov owns wins over Abel Trujillo, Gleison Tibau, Thiago Taveres and Pat Healy. Four of his seven UFC fights have gone the distance.
Johnson (17-10 MMA, 9-6 UFC) is off an impressive first-round KO win over Dustin Poirier in just 95 seconds in the UFC Hidalgo headliner on Sept. 17. Poirier had won four consecutive fights since moving up to lightweight from the 145-pound division.
Johnson ripped off four straight wins over Joe Lauzon, Tibau, Melvin Guillard and Edson Barboza from 2013-2015. This set the 30-year-old St. Louis product up with a bout against Beneil Dariush. Johnson dominated the first two rounds, winning nearly all of the striking exchanges as he moved in and out with superior speed.
In the third and final round, I had Johnson winning again, albeit much closer than in the first two stanzas, to take the contest easily by a 30-27 score. However, in one of the most deplorable decisions in MMA history, Dariush was inexplicably given the split-decision victory.
Next, Johnson agreed to face Nate Diaz in Orlando last December. All three judges gave Johnson the first round, but Diaz took control in the final two rounds and deservedly earned the UD victory (29-28 three times) as a massive underdog in the +300 range. Johnson shook off the back-to-back defeats to beat Poirier, but he’s really on a 6-1 roll in his last seven fights because the loss to Dariush was complete nonsense.
Prediction: This is a classic clash of styles. Johnson, the long-time member of The Blackzilians camp in South Florida, is a terrific boxer with outstanding speed. If – and it’s a monster IF – Johnson can defend the takedown attempts of Nurmagomedov, he should have the advantage when both fighters are standing. It’ll be the opposite if the fight goes to the ground. That’s where Nurmagomedov is probably the best in the division. Six of Johnson’s nine defeats have come by submission, but we should note that he hasn’t tapped out since an April of 2013 loss to Reza Madadi. I think Nurmagomedov potentially gets a submission but more likely wins by decision. Since he’s so ‘chalky,’ though, I’m going to have to pass here.
Tim ‘The Barbarian’ Boetsch will face 14th-ranked Rafael Natal in a middleweight clash. As of Thursday, most spots had Natal installed as a -160 ‘chalk,’ leaving Boetsch as a +130 ‘dog. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -185, ‘under’ +160).
Boetsch (19-10 MMA, 10-9 UFC) snapped a three-fight losing streak and most likely dodged a pink slip by defeating the late Josh Samman (RIP) by second-round KO in July. Samman, who passed away a few months later due to a suspected heroine overdose, sustained a broken orbital bone from the ground-and-pound punishment dealt out by Boetsch.
The 35-year-old from Maine won his first four middleweight bouts after dropping down a class in 2011. His victims included Kendall Grove, Nick Ring, Yushin Okami and Hector Lombard. Boetsch scored one of the most memorable comeback wins in UFC history with his third-round KO of Okami at UFC 144 in Saitama, Japan. Okami had dominated the first two stanzas before Boetsch rallied with a slew of thunderous right-hand uppercuts.
In the split-decision victory over Lombard, Boetsch hooked me and his other betting backers with a gorgeous +300 payout. The win over Okami netted his supporters a nasty +375 return. Boetsch owns a 6-4 record in 10 UFC appearances as an underdog. In addition to the outstanding ‘dog tickets won against Oklami and Lombard, he has beaten Samman (+195), Brad Tavares (+260), Grove (+120) and David Heath (+230).
Natal (21-7-1 MMA, 9-5-1 UFC) saw his four-fight winning streak ended in his last outing, a UD loss to Robert Whittaker at UFC 197. The 33-year-old Brazilian owns notable career scalps over Travis Lutter, Chris Camozzi, Tom Watson, Uriah Hall and Kevin Casey.
Prediction: The payout on the ‘under’ looks attractive, but we aren’t going there since 13 of Natal’s 15 UFC fights have made it into the third round. I’ll go with one unit on Boetsch for the +130 payout.
The lid-lifter on Fox Sports 1 will get started at 8:00 p.m. Eastern when welterweights Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammad will tangle. As of Thursday, most books had Muhammad (10-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC) listed as a -145 ‘chalk,’ while Luque is the +125 ‘dog. The total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -200, ‘under’ +170).
I was at MGM Grand Garden Arena when Muhammad and Alan Jouban waged the Fight of the Night this past July in Las Vegas. Jouban won a narrow UD, but Muhammad nearly got a finish late in the third round when he had Jouban rocked and in trouble. Muhammad bounced back with a third-round KO of Augusto Montano in Hidalgo.
Luque (10-5-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC) has posted three straight wins since losing a UD to Michael Graves in his Octagon debut on July 12 of 2015. Since then, Luque has a pair of submission finishes over Hayder Hassan and Alvaro Herrera, in addition to a 60-second KO of Hector Urbina his last time out in September. He garnered a pair of Performance of the Night bonuses with his wins over Hassan and Urbina.
Prediction: Seven of Luque’s 10 career wins have come via first-round finishes. Two other victories came by second-round finishes. I’ll go with one unit on ‘under’ 2.5 rounds for the +170 return.
The Early Prelims can been seen on UFC FightPass only. The opener features former women’s bantamweight title challenger Liz Carmouche up against Katlyn Chookagian at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. As of Thursday, most books had Chookagian listed as a -170 favorite, while Carmouche was the +145 ‘dog. The total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -220, ‘under’ +180). I’ll pass on this 135-pound women’s scrap.
Next, a pair of lightweight veterans will collide when New Jersey native Jim Miller meets Thiago Alves. As of Thursday, most books had Alves as a -160 favorite with Miller as the +140 ‘dog. The total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -150, ‘under’ +130).
Miller (27-8-1 MMA, 16-7-1 UFC) will be living a dream at MGS when he makes his 25th walk to the Octagon. He is looking for a third consecutive win after scoring a first-round KO of Takanori Gomi at UFC 200 before capturing a controversial split-decision triumph over Lauzon. Miller’s most notable career wins have come over Guillard, Danny Castillo, Charles Oliveira, Mark Bocek, Duane Ludwig, Mac Danzig and Matt Wiman.
Alves (21-10 MMA, 13-7 UFC) is making his lightweight debut in this fight, which is something to keep an eye on here. Obviously, as I’m posting this preview on Thursday, we don’t yet know how Alves will handle his weight cut, but let’s remember that he missed weight twice during his time at 170. Even if he does make weight, it’ll be interesting to see how Alves’s cardio is impacted come fight night.
Alves, a 33-year-old Brazilian who fights for American Top Team, once challenged Georges St. Pierre for his welterweight strap, only to lose a UD at UFC 100. ‘The Pitbull’ owns notable career wins over the likes of Jordan Mein, John Howard, Josh Koscheck, UFC Hall of Famer Matt Hughes, Chris Lytle, Karo Parisyan and Marcus Davis.
Prediction: Miller will be giving away a lot of size in this bout, but he’s used to that. The grizzled veteran can win a fight with his striking or his submissions. Mainly due to the questions I have about Alves fighting at 155, I’ll go with Miller for one unit for the +140 payout.
Alvarez vs. McGregor: UFC 205 Betting Preview
By MMAOddsbreak.com
UFC 202 is headlined by a highly anticipated champion versus champion showdown in New York City, as Eddie Alvarez puts his lightweight title on the line against featherweight champion Conor McGregor.
Eddie Alvarez (Record: 28-4, +135 Underdog, Fighter Grade: A)
Eddie Alvarez, the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania native, has competed against the best fighters in the division during his short stint in the UFC. Alvarez is coming off the biggest win of his career, knocking out Rafael dos Anjos to become the UFC Lightweight Champion. He now enters into a whole new experience. Not only is he facing Conor McGregor and the enhanced media blitz that comes along with him, but this is the first ever event at Madison Square Garden.
A prep school All-American in both boxing and wrestling, Alvarez quickly gravitated towards MMA after finishing high school making his professional MMA debut at 19 years of age.
Alvarez made his mark in Bellator debuting in the promotion’s first ever event. He fought in the promotion ten times, losing only once; in perhaps the best fight in Bellator history against Michael Chandler. Alvarez left Bellator in 2014 as the promotion’s best fighter to test himself in the UFC.
Alvarez has proven to be a crafty veteran with a never say die attitude. He’s a solid wrestler with very good boxing. His skill set is well-rounded, but what really makes him an elite fighter is his heart and determination. He’s been in trouble in several fights, but knows how to fight out of bad situations and tends to get better as fights progress. Even when outmatched skill to skill, he finds ways to force his opponent into a dog fight ultimately making it very close for judges to score if it hits the scorecards. In 32 career fights, he’s only been finished three times and only once (that fight with Michael Chandler) since 2008. Durability, determination, and a well-rounded skill set defines Eddie Alvarez as a fighter.
Conor McGregor (Record: 20-3, -155 Favorite, Fighter Grade: A)
The pride of Dublin, Conor McGregor has been on a meteoric rise in the UFC. He won his first seven fights in the organization beating the likes of Jose Aldo and Chad Mendes to earn himself the featherweight champion.
McGregor jumped all the way up to welterweight earlier this year to fight Nate Diaz losing by second round submission. It was his first loss in the UFC and first loss overall since 2010. McGregor wasted no time getting back in the cage demanding a rematch; a fight that went the distance that the featherweight champion was able to squeeze out a close win. McGregor now looks to become the first ever simultaneous two division champion in UFC history at UFC 205.
The featherweight champion has one of the best striking arsenals in the sport. His ability is predicated by his southpaw approach. He likes to use a lot of kicks to get inside where he can land his massive left hand to finish opponents. He does an excellent job of pressuring opponents and using cage control to limit his opponent’s movements.
Defensively, he is hittable, but he has an excellent chin and has never been finished by strikes in his professional career. On the mat, he has shown modest success in top control. Where he’s had the most issues is on his back. He’s given up his back on multiple occasions allowing opponents to sync submissions. This was the case in his first matchup with McGregor.
The champion showed improved cardio in his last bout and fighting this time at 155 pounds is probably the optimal weight for him as opposed to the bloated 170 pounds he fought at against Diaz.
The Matchup
This is a tremendous main event for a massive PPV card in Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. Combining the fact that this is the first ever event in New York City with Conor McGregor trying to become the first ever simultaneous two division champion makes this a very compelling and historic fight.
Expect both fighters to come out firing from the opening bell. It’s in McGregor’s best interest to do so as Alvarez as vulnerable in the early exchanges. Alvarez doesn’t have as good of a chin as Diaz does so if McGregor can land with the type of accuracy he did in the Diaz fight, he has a very good opportunity to put Alvarez away. As the fight progresses, Alvarez’s resilience will come into play making this a competitive contest. Even one he could potentially win late.
The biggest issue for Alvarez is the entire hoopla of fight week. Alvarez has definitely been affected by all the extra attention this fight is getting and that brings on unprecedented pressure for him. Pretty much every fighter that faces McGregor seems to fight much differently when placed into a cage with McGregor. That should be the case on Saturday night as well. Look for McGregor to land big early and for him to put away an over anxious Alvarez to become a two division champion. McGregor by TKO/KO (+103) is the play in this bout.
UFC 205 - Main Card Picks
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
After decades of being denied access to the state of New York, the Ultimate Fighting Championship finally lands in New York City at Madison Square Garden for Saturday’s stacked UFC 205 card. The 11-fight card features three title fights, including a battle between two champions for Eddie Alvarez’s lightweight strap.
Once again, featherweight kingpin Conor ‘The Notorious’ McGregor (20-3 MMA, 8-1 UFC) is going up in weight to take on Alvarez, who won the 155-pound belt by destroying Rafael dos Anjos via first-round knockout at UFC Fight Night 90 as a +250 underdog.
Both fighters made weight Friday morning. As of Friday afternoon, most spots had McGregor installed as a -140 favorite, leaving Alvarez as the +120 underdog. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -170, ‘under’ +150).
Alvarez (28-4 MMA, 3-1 UFC) dropped a unanimous decision to Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone in his Octagon debut at UFC 178 in September of 2014. He responded by collecting a pair of split-decision triumphs over Gilbert Melendez and Anthony Pettis to earn his title shot against RDA.
McGregor is off a pair of wars with Nate Diaz, both of which were contested at 170 pounds. Diaz submitted McGregor by rear-naked choke in the second round of their first meeting at UFC 196 when the 209 product accepted the fight on 11 days of notice. McGregor had originally been scheduled to take on RDA for lightweight title, but Dos Anjos pulled out due to a foot injury.
In the rematch at UFC 202, McGregor captured a majority decision (48-47, 47-47, 48-47) to get his revenge, though some like me felt Diaz won the fight by taking Rounds 2, 3 and 5. Diaz nearly finished McGregor in the third round and that’s why one of the three judges scored that stanza 10-8 for Nate.
McGregor has become the biggest star in the promotion’s history by wrecking the 145-pound loop and doing it with the flare and charisma of an international superstar. He won the featherweight title by taking out Jose Aldo with one punch in merely 13 seconds. Aldo had been the UFC’s only featherweight champ and had not tasted defeat in more than a decade.
Prior to defeating Aldo, McGregor posted wins over the likes of Marcus Brimmage, Max Holloway, Diego Brandao, Dustin Poirier, Dennis Siver and Chad Mendes. Holloway has won nine straight fights since losing to McGregor and he’s the only opponent – besides Diaz – that wasn’t KO’d by the Pride of Dublin, Ireland.
Prediction: Alvarez is the better wrestler and would love to take McGregor down whenever the opportunity presents itself. This is the key to the fight. If McGregor can successfully defend takedown attempts and keep the fight standing, his chances of winning are outstanding. However, it won’t be a given by any means. First of all, Alvarez displayed the best striking of his career in his last outing against Dos Anjos. Secondly, McGregor’s cardio is another question mark. The shots he landed on Diaz in the first round of both fights would’ve most likely finished all featherweights. When that didn’t happen, McGregor completely gassed midway through Round 2 of the first fight and slowed down considerably in the second stanza of the rematch. Does Alvarez have Diaz’s chin? Well, I’m not sure there are many – if any – human beings on this planet that can absorb the type of punishment that the Diaz Brothers can take and keep fighting. But Alvarez can take punches with the best of them and is unlikely to fold if McGregor begins to have his way on the feet in the opening round. Then the question becomes, will McGregor start to fade in the second and third rounds and if so, will Alvarez take advantage and gain control of the fight? Really tough call here! And I’m not that confident in this pick, but I like to gamble so let’s go with a two-unit play on McGregor at -140. Note: If the odds move north of -150, then I would suggest just a one-unit wager. And if the odds get to -160 or more, I’d stay away. That’s too much ‘chalk.’
In the co-main event, Tyron Woodley will defend his welterweight championship for the first time against Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson. As of Friday afternoon, most books had Thompson (13-1 MMA, 8-1 UFC) listed as the -210 ‘chalk’ with the champ listed as the +170 underdog (risk $100 to win $170). The total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -125, ‘under’ +105).
Woodley (16-3 MMA, 6-2 UFC) took the 170-pound strap from ‘Ruthless’ Robbie Lawler by scoring a first-round KO in the UFC 201 headliner at Philips Arena in Atlanta. The Ferguson, MO., product brings a three-fight winning streak into this match. Prior to defeating Lawler, he dusted Dong Hyun ‘The Stun Gun’ Kim by first-round KO and clipped Kelvin Gastelum by split decision. He also has KO wins over Carlos Condit, Josh Koscheck and Jay Hieron during his 3.5-year UFC tenure.
Woodley’s losses in the Octagon came against Jake Shields (split decision) and Rory MacDonald (UD). His only other career defeat came in Strikeforce title fight when he was KO’d by Nate Marquardt in the fourth round.
Thompson has won seven straight fights since taking his lone career defeat to Matt Brown at UFC 145 in April of 2012. His victims have included a former champ (Johny Hendricks) and a pair of former title challengers (Rory MacDonald and Patrick Cote). Thompson has also beaten ranked contenders Jake Ellenberger and Robert Whittaker by first-round KOs.
When Thompson lost to Brown, his wrestling hadn’t developed to the level where it needed to be. Thompson grew up in the sport of karate before becoming a world champion kickboxer in multiple organizations in multiple weight classes. His stand-up skills were at a championship level when he entered MMA, but he had to do extensive work on his ground game and most importantly, his takedown defense.
To do so, Thompson spent a lot of time at the Tristar Gym in Montreal working with Georges St. Pierre. Then when he married Chris Weidman’s sister, landing him a training partner in the form of his brother-in-law who grew up a wrestler. Before long, Thompson developed some of the better takedown defense skills in the division.
With that talent in his tool box, now Thompson could focus on doing what he does best. And that’s moving in and out and side to side with an arsenal of kicks and punches from every angle you can imagine. MacDonald is one of the best welterweights of all-time, but he couldn’t find Thompson if they fought for 15 rounds. They only fought for five, but Thompson didn’t have a scratch on him when his hand was raised.
Prediction: Thompson deserves to be the favorite even though he’s the challenger. But does he deserve to be an expensive ‘chalk’ north of -200? I don’t believe so. As the former champ Lawler quickly found out, Woodley only needs one opening and one solid connection to end the night. And Woodley has more speed than Thompson is accustomed to dealing with. Do I think Thompson has a number of advantages over the champion? I do. Nevertheless, I can’t turn down the champ with one-punch KO power at these underdog odds. Now I’m not going to risk much, but I’m in on Woodley for one unit for the +170 return.
Women’s strawweight champ Joanna Jedrzejczk (12-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC) is a -410 ‘chalk’ against another Polish fighter in Karolina Kowalkiewicz, who is the biggest underdog on the card at +330. The total was 4.5 rounds on Friday (‘over’ -185, ‘under’ +160).
Jedrzejczk won the belt from Carla Esparza with a second-round KO at UFC 185. Since then, she’s successfully defended her 115-pound strap three times with wins over Jessica Penne, Valerie Letourneau and Claudia Gadelha. Four of her six UFC bouts have gone the distance with Penne serving as Jedrzejczk’s other KO victim.
Kowalkiewicz (10-0 MMA, 3-0 UFC) earned a shot at the belt by beating Rose Namajunas by split decision at UFC 201 in Atlanta. Her two other UFC wins came over Randa Markos and Heather Jo Clark.
Prediction: I don’t see anyone beating Jedrzejczk anytime soon. Her striking is on a level completely beyond any other lady in the division. The belt won’t be changing hands Saturday night. Just for giggles: I’ll go one unit on the proposition bet for Jedrzejczk to win by decision at a -118 price at 5Dimes.eu.
One of the most anticipated fights on the main card was set to feature a pair of welterweight contenders in Kelvin Gastelum and Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone. However, Gastelum missed weight Friday morning for the third time in his career. Therefore, the fight was scrapped and it’s highly unlikely we’ll see Gastelum fighting at 170 again. He’ll be a middleweight moving forward.
As for Cerrone, news broke Friday afternoon that he’ll now take on Matt Brown at UFC 206 in Toronto. Yes, please! I’ll have some of that. Hide the women and children for that showdown. Can’t wait!
Former middleweight champ Chris Weidman (13-1 MMA, 9-1 UFC) will fulfill a life-long dream to compete at MSG in his hometown when he squares off with former Cuban Olympic wrestler Yoel ‘Soldier of God’ Romero. As of Friday, most books had Weidman listed as a -185 favorite, leaving Romero at +150 on the comeback. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -220, ‘under’ +180).
Weidman returns to the Octagon for the first time since suffering his first career loss and losing the belt to Luke Rockhold, who destroyed the native New Yorker by fourth-round KO at UFC 194 in Las Vegas last December. Weidman had successfully defended the 185-pound title three times since taking it from Anderson Silva by second-round KO at UFC 162 in July of 2013.
The title defenses came against Silva, Machida and Vitor Belfort. Six of Weidman’s 13 career wins have come by way of first-round finishes. Other notable scalps on Weidman’s resume include victories over Mark Munoz, Demian Maia, Uriah Hall, Tom Lawlor and Alessio Sakara.
Romero (12-1 MMA, 7-0 UFC) has collected four Fight Night bonuses in his seven career Octagon appearances. He has five KOs to his credit with those victims including Derek Brunson, Tim Kennedy (albeit in extremely controversial fashion) and former light-heavyweight kingpin Lyoto Machida. Romero is coming off a split-decision win over Jacare Souza at UFC 194.
Prediction: Will fighting in NYC before a supportive audience be a spark for Weidman, or could it be a distraction? Has he mentally recovered from the severe beating put on him by Rockhold 11 months ago? Those are enough questions for me to avoid laying the ‘chalk’ here. Weidman and Romero are elite wrestlers, but I believe Romero may have the strength advantage when these competitors are grappling against the cage or working the clinch game. The fear with an ‘under’ play is that this will turn into a wrestling match, but there’s also a better-than-decent chance that each others’ wrestling skills will negate each other. In that scenario, it could become a stand-and-trade battle that the fans will love to see. My guess is that will occur and if so, I love our chances for either fighter to win by KO and do so in the early going. Let’s go with two units on ‘under’ 1.5 rounds for the monster +180 return.
The main card’s lid-lifter will pit former women’s bantamweight champ Miesha ‘Cupcake’ Tate against Racquel Pennington. As of Friday, most spots had Tate (18-6 MMA, 5-3 UFC) installed as the -170 ‘chalk’ with Pennington at +150 on the comeback. The total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -200, ‘under’ +170).
Tate saw her five-fight winning streak and here hold of the belt evaporate rapidly at the UFC 200 main event this past July. Amana Nunes rocked Tate early with a barrage of strikes and she never fully regained her faculties. Tate survived for a while but it was only a matter of time before the referee intervened, which finally happened at the 3:16 mark of the opening round.
Tate had won the title by submitting Holly Holm while she was down on the scorecard in the fifth round of their UFC 196 showdown in Las Vegas this past March. The Seattle native had earned the title shot by bouncing back from a third-round submission loss to Ronda Rousey with four consecutive victories over Liz Carmouche, Rin Nakai, Sara McMann and Jessica Eye.
Pennington (8-5 MMA, 5-2 UFC) has ripped off three straight wins to earn this spot against the former champ on the main card of the promotion’s debut event in the Big Apple. She’s knocked off Jessica Andrade, Bethe Correia and Elizabeth Phillips. Pennington also has UFC wins over Ashlee Evans-Smith and Roxanne Modafferi. She lost a split-decision to Holm at UFC 184.
Prediction: I lean to Miesha here, but I can’t risk the ‘chalky’ price. She took a lot of damage against Nunes and you wonder about the status of her nose that was broken and still bleeding at the UFC 200 postfight presser. I suspect this one goes the distance but again, I’m not bullish enough on that to risk a -200 price for the ‘over.’ I have to pass on this one.
Best of luck with your wagers and enjoy what should be a spectacular show!