UFC 210 Betting News and Notes

UFC 210 Best Bets
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

The Octagon will land in Buffalo, New York, for the first time in more than 20 years Saturday night at KeyBank Center for a 13-fight card headlined by Daniel Cormier and Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson, who will collide again in the UFC 210 headliner.

The main event will happen, but there was high drama at Friday’s weigh-ins. With five minutes left to weigh in, Cormier and Johnson had yet to show. Cormier walked in first with four minutes remaining, but his first attempt on the scales resulted in a 206.2-pound reading. For title fights at light heavyweight, you don’t get the one-pound allowance, so he was 1.2 pounds heavy.

After disappearing for one minute, Cormier gave it another shot. This time, he shockingly came in at 205. I never wrestled and have never cut weight, but I’ve been told today that Cormier used “an old high-school trick.”

A simple Google search will allow you to view the video. On Cormier’s second attempt, he appeared to be pressing down on the towel that was shielding his naked body from the media gathered throughout the room. I’m told that pressing down on the towel takes off upper-body weight.

If you don’t buy that theory, then perhaps you will question the scale, which was the same one used 60 seconds beforehand. After DC’s miraculous 205 reading, Johnson came into the room. Fighters had the entire morning to weigh in, but ‘Rumble’ (and DC) were clearly struggling with their cut since they were waiting until the final minutes.

Guess what Johnson came in at? 203.8 pounds. If I’m doing my math correct, that’s 1.2 pounds less than 205. Cormier’s second attempt was 1.2 pounds less than his first. If Johnson had 1.2 pounds to spare, why had he waited until less than two minutes before the buzzer?

Look, I’m no conspiracy theorist and, to be crystal clear, I’m stoked that both fighters made weight. However, those that want to take issue with how Cormier got down to 205 have plenty of ammo to work with and I’m sure this isn’t the last of this discussion.

Moving on….

Cormier (18-1 MMA, 7-1 UFC) withstood getting dropped and hurt badly by Johnson in the first 30 seconds of their initial bout at UFC 187, rallying to turn the tide of the fight in the second round. ‘DC’ was able to get a takedown early in the second stanza and then work ground and pound for the rest of the round.

It didn’t take long for Cormier to take a gassed Johnson down in the third and eventually get a submission to the win the 205-pound strap. Since then, Cormier has fought just twice, defending his title with a split-decision triumph over Alexander Gustafsson at UFC 192.

Cormier’s rematch with the long-time LHW champ, Jon Jones, who was stripped of his belt after a hit-and-run incident, was scheduled for the UFC 200 headliner last summer. But three days before the fight, USADA flagged Jones for a PED violation, resulting in the cancellation of the scrap.

On less than 48 hours of notice, former middleweight kingpin Anderson ‘The Spider’ Silva agreed to face Cormier in a three-round non-title bout. Cormier predictably wrestled his way to a unanimous-decision win.

Cormier and Johnson were slated to throw down at UFC 206, but the current champ pulled out due to an injury. Jones, who will come off of suspension this summer, is waiting in the wings for the winner. Jones, who is from the Buffalo area, will be in attendance Saturday night.

Cormier has tasted defeat in MMA just once, dropping a unanimous decision to the still-unbeaten Jones, who actually has an ‘L’ on his resume, but the controversial disqualification for an illegal elbow on Matt Hamill isn’t considered a defeat by anyone with a clue. That loss for Cormier came at UFC 182.

The former Olympic wrestler from Lafayette, LA., fought at heavyweight under the Strikeforce banner, winning the promotion’s Heavyweight Grand Prix before it was bought out by Zuffa. Cormier is teammates with Cain Velasquez, the former two-time UFC heavyweight champion. Therefore, he opted to move down to LHW because Velasquez held the heavyweight strap when the 38-year-old was signed by the UFC.

Cormier took his first two UFC fights at heavyweight before dropping down a weight class. He defeated Frank Mir and Roy ‘Big Country’ Nelson by UD. Cormier finished Patrick Cummins and Dan Henderson to earn his first title shot against Jones.

Johnson (22-5 MMA, 13-5 UFC) has been on a tear since missing weight and subsequently getting submitted by Vitor Belfort at UFC 142 in January of 2012. After the promotion cut him following the loss to Belfort, ‘Rumble’ won six straight fights, including a win at heavyweight over Andrei Arlovski, to get invited back into the Octagon.

In his return fight, Johnson squared off against Phil ‘Mr. Wonderful’ Davis. Johnson dominated the match en route to a UD victory. Next, he needed only 44 seconds to dispose of Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. Then Johnson went on the road and dusted Gustafsson in Stockholm, Sweden, to earn a title shot against Jones. However, Jones was arrested on the aforementioned hit-and-run charges, prompting Cormier to face Johnson for the vacant belt.

Since the loss to Cormier, Johnson has won three consecutive fights by knockout and bagged a trio of Performance of the Night bonuses. First, he took out Jimi Manuwa 28 seconds into the second stanza at UFC 191. Next, Johnson destroyed Ryan Bader in 86 seconds before needing merely 13 seconds to drop Glover Teixeira.

As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Johnson listed as a -130 favorite, leaving the champ as the +110 underdog. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -175, ‘under’ +155).

The Pick: I’m supremely confident in how this fight is going to play out. Either ‘Rumble’ is going to win by KO in the first round or early in the second, or Cormier is going to survive Johnson’s early onslaught, eventually turn the fight into a wrestling match and grind out a decision or win via ground-and-pound or submission. My thinking is that Johnson is going to get him. However, I don’t think Johnson can win if the bout goes beyond the midway point of Round 2. Therefore, why would I risk a -130 price when I can play the ‘under’ for plus money? That’s the call -- two units on UNDER (1.5 rounds, +155 payout).

In the co-main event, former middleweight champion Chris Weidman will collide with Gegard Mousasi. Most spots had Mousasi (41-6-2 MMA, 8-3 UFC) as a short -120 ‘chalk’ as of late Friday afternoon. Weidman was the even-money underdog, while the total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -185, ‘under’ +155).

Weidman (13-2 MMA, 9-2 UFC) has lost back-to-back fights, the first two defeats of his career. The 32-year-old Long Island, N.Y., native lost his belt to Luke Rockhold by fourth-round KO at UFC 194. A rematch was set for UFC 199 in Los Angeles, but Weidman was forced to withdraw due to an injury.

The former wrestler at Hofstra University returned at UFC 205, but he lost to Yoel Romero by a flying knee and subsequent punches 24 seconds into the third and final round.

Before this recent slump, Weidman quickly rose into contention with notable wins over Tom Lawlor, Demian Maia and Mark Munoz. Those victories earned him a shot at Silva’s middleweight strap, one the Brazilian had held for nearly seven years. With Silva clowning early in Round 2 at UFC 162, Weidman knocked him out cold with a left hook.

Then in the rematch at UFC 168, Weidman dominated the first round and nearly finished ‘The Spider.’ With more than three minutes remaining in Round 2, Weidman checked a leg kick from Silva that resulted in a grotesque leg fracture that obviously ended the bout. Weidman successfully defended the belt twice with a UD win over Lyoto Machida and a first-round KO of Belfort.

Mousasi has won four consecutive fights, earning early finishes in his last three. The victims have included Thales Leites, Thiago Santos, Belfort and Uriah Hall. The 31-year-old Mousasi owns other notable career wins over the likes of Henderson, Munoz, Ilir Latifi, Ovince Saint Preux, Mark Hunt and Jacare Souza.

The Pick: I think this is a toss-up fight that can go either way. Both men have the power and submission skills to score finishes. Therefore, I’m going with two units on the UNDER (2.5 rounds, +155).

Other main-card bouts include Pearl Gonzalez vs. Cynthia Calvillo, Patrick Cote vs. Thiago Alves and Charles Oliveira vs. Will Brooks.

MORE PICKS

One unit on Thiago Alves for a +120 return.

One unit on Charles Oliveira for a +200 payout.

B.E.’s Bonus Octagon Nuggets

There was plenty of drama surrounding the women’s strawweight showdown between Gonzalez and Calvillo on Friday. After both fighters made weight, it was announced that the New York Athletic Commission was cancelling the fight due to the presence of Gonzalez’s breast implants. The NYAC reversed course 3-4 hours later and announced that the fight would happen.

Robbie Lawler and Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone will meet on the main card at UFC 213. What a gift from the heavens for fight fans!

A heavyweight scrap between Alistair Overeem and Fabricio Werdum will headline UFC 213. The winner will most likely get the next title shot against the winner of the UFC 211 main event in Dallas between current kingpin Stipe Miocic and former champ Junior dos Santos. Overeem is listed as a -160 ‘chalk’ vs. Werdum (+130).

Most spots have Miocic listed as a -175 favorite vs. JDS (+155).

Max Holloway will take his 10-fight winning streak on the road for his first title shot against featherweight champ Jose Aldo at UFC 212 in Brazil. Aldo is a -140 ‘chalk’ at most betting shops.