UFC 211 Best Bets
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
The Octagon returns to Dallas on Saturday night for UFC 211 that’ll be headlined by Stipe Miocic vs. Junior Dos Santos for Miocic’s heavyweight strap.
How stacked is this 12-fight card? Well, there are two title fights in the main and co-main events. Then there’s a former lightweight champ (Frankie Edgar) and a former title challenger (Demian Maia) in main-card matchups. And then in the prelims headliner, another former lightweight champ (Eddie Alvarez) is in action for the first time since losing his belt to Conor ‘The Notorious’ McGregor at UFC 205 in New York City.
Miocic-Dos Santos II will be a rematch of a wild scrap in the main event at UFC on FOX 13 in December of 2014. VegasInsider.com scored the bout 48-47 in favor of Miocic, giving the current champ Rounds 1, 2 and 4. However, the judges gave the nod to Dos Santos by scores of 48-47, 49-46 and 49-46. I went back and watched the fight this past weekend and, just as I did at that time, found the 49-46 scores to be incomprehensible.
Whatever the case, Miocic (16-2 MMA, 10-2 UFC) hasn’t tasted defeat since, winning four consecutive fights. All four wins have come by knockout, including three straight first-round KOs. Miocic KO’d Mark Hunt and Andrei Arlovski to earn a title shot versus Fabricio Werdum in Brazil at UFC 198.
As Werdum wildly charged at the challenger, Miocic landed a counter right as he was backing up. Nevertheless, the punch had enough zip on it to put the Brazilian to sleep. Since then, Miocic successfully defended his belt by recovering from an early onslaught by Alistair Overeem to earn a KO in front of his hometown Cleveland fans at UFC 203 last September.
Dos Santos (18-4 MMA, 12-3 UFC) is a 33-year-old Brazilian who won the UFC’s heavyweight championship at the age of 27 when he beat Cain Velasquez by first-round knockout in only 64 seconds at UFC on FOX 1 in Anaheim. JDS successfully defended his belt with a second-round KO of former heavyweight kingpin Frank Mir at UFC 146.
In the rematch against Velasquez at UFC 155, however, the belt changed hands again. Velasquez absolutely demolished Dos Santos for 25 minutes, wrecking his face with knees, elbows and punches throughout each of the five rounds. JDS bounced back with a third-round KO of Mark Hunt via spinning hook kick, setting up a trilogy match against Velasquez.
Unfortunately for Dos Santos, the third fight was simply a re-run of the second meeting. It was all Velasquez again, and he finished the job this time with a fifth-round KO.
After taking another bloody beating, JDS understandably took more than a year off before facing Miocic. Following that aforementioned victory, Dos Santos was on the sidelines for just over a year again before returning to the Octagon in December of 2015 at UFC Orlando. That’s where he lost by second-round KO to Alistair Overeem. JDS responded by dusting Ben Rothwell by UD (50-45’s across) last April, and now he takes aim at the title again 13 months later.
As of Friday afternoon, most books had Miocic listed as a -140 ‘chalk,’ leaving JDS as the +110 underdog. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -210, ‘under’ +170).
Prediction: I like Miocic for two units and I’ll go with the best price of -125 at William Hill as of late Friday afternoon. Also, I’ll go with one unit on the ‘under’ for the +175 return (at 5Dimes.eu).
In the co-main event, women’s strawweight champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk will defend her belt against Jessica Andrade.
Jedrzejczyk (13-0 MMA, 7-0 UFC) was the last fighter to tip the scales at Friday’s weigh-ins. She made weight, but might have had a difficult cut since she didn’t show up until 10 minutes before the deadline. The champ didn’t crack a smile after 115.0 pounds was announced. Meanwhile, Andrade clearly had a good weight cut, landing on the scale at 114.5 pounds.
The 29-year-old Jedrzejczyk is a Muay Thai specialist who captured the strawweight belt by beating Carla Esparza by second-round KO on March 14 of 2015 at UFC 185 in Dallas. Since then, the Polish fighter has defended her strap four times, including a pair of Fight of the Night wins over Jessica Penne (third-round KO) and Claudia Gadelha (UD). She joined American Top Team in South Fla. before her last bout, a UD victory over Karolina Kowalkiewicz at UFC 205.
As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Jedrzejczyk as a -190 favorite with Andrade as the +155 underdog (risk $100 to win $155). The total was 3.5 rounds (‘over’ 200, ‘under’ +155).
Andrade (16-5 MMA, 7-3 UFC), who has never gone five rounds, has ripped off three consecutive wins since dropping down from bantamweight to the 115-pound loop. She scored a first-round submission in her win over Joanne Calderwood at UFC 203, bagging a Performance of the Night bonus in the process. The 25-year-old Brazilian defeated Angela Hill in February in the Fight of the Night at UFC Houston.
Prediction: When I was recording my Games Galore podcast on BrianEdwardsSports.com on Wednesday, a few books had the champ down at -155 and there were several -160’s available. Those are gone now, and I can’t recommend eating a ‘chalk’ price north of -180. If the number were to go down to -160 or less, I’m ok with a one-unit play on Jedrzejczyk, who likes to tell Joe Rogan after her victories, “And again, and again, and again, and Still!” She’ll utter these words postfight from the Octagon again while waving her right index finger indicating that she’s The Uno.
In a crucial welterweight showdown, third-ranked Demian Maia (24-6 MMA, 18-6 UFC) will take on fifth-ranked Jorge ‘Gamebred’ Masvidal. As of Friday, most spots had Masvidal installed as a -125 favorite, leaving the 39-year-old Maia with a -105 price. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -200, ‘under’ +155).
Maia has won six straight fights, including back-to-back submission wins by rear-naked chokes over Matt Brown and Carlos Condit, the former interim welterweight champ. Maia owns a 9-2 record since dropping down to 170 pounds after a nice run at middleweight. His only defeats at 170 have come by decisions vs. Jake Shields (split) and Rory MacDonald (unanimous).
Masvidal (32-11 MMA, 9-4 UFC) is seeking a fourth consecutive win after scalps of Ross Pearson (UD), Jake Ellenberger (first-round KO) and Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone (second-round KO). He’s’ 4-2 since moving up to 170 after spending most of his career at lightweight. The lone defeats for Masvidal came by split decisions against Benson Henderson and Lorenz Larkin.
Masvidal predicted carnage for Maia in a FoxSports.com interview earlier this week. ‘Gamebred’ told Damon Martin, ““What’s coming on May 13, people ain’t ready for. If this was being sold on DVD’s, you would make a half an hour line to get this DVD. Cause it’s going to be brutal,” Masvidal said. “If you don’t like seeing violence, don’t [expletive] tune in May 13. Cause what’s coming on May 13 is going to be violent. It’s going to be some [expletive]. The same way I told you about the “Cowboy” fight, it’s going to be violent.
“This is not PG-13. This is not rated ‘R’. This is XXX. If you don’t like those types of films, don’t tune in May 13. That’s all I’m going to say.”
Prediction: Not so fast, Masvidal. I see this fight going one of two ways. Masvidal’s superior striking will rule the day and he’ll score a KO in the first round or early in Round 2, or Maia will get his claws on ‘Gamebred’ and work his BJJ skills – which are the best in MMA history in any division – to a submission or decision victory. We should point out that two of Masvidal’s 11 defeats have come by submission. Maia’s style often prompts rather boring fights, but he has it mastered so damn well that I’ve come to appreciate it. When he gets hold of an opponent, whether it be via takedown or a clinch situation, his foe is basically resigned to just defending submission attempts and surviving the rest of a round. Even at the age of 39, Maia is in prime form. Seriously, who has made Condit look that bad? Nobody. Condit had only been finished in the first round once in his career and that was more than a decade ago. Give me four units on Maia, who was at +115 at 5Dimes on Friday afternoon. I’ll also play one unit on the ‘under’ for the generous +155 return.
Despite the presence of a pair of title fights, I find the most intriguing scrap to be the lightweight showdown between Frankie ‘The Answer’ Edgar and Yair ‘El Pantera’ Rodriguez. As of Friday, most books had Edgar (21-5-1 MMA, 15-5-1 UFC) favored in the -125 range, while Rodriguez was the +105 ‘dog. The action on the 24-year-old rising star from Mexico has been steadily coming in since Edgar opened as a -260 ‘chalk.’ The total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -250, ‘under’ +220).
This is a crossroads fight in Edgar’s storied career that has spanned more than six hours of Octagon time, the most in UFC history by about 30 minutes over middleweight champ Michael Bisping. Edgar has been through many wars and faced the best of the best at both 145 and 155. Still, at the age of 35, he remains on top of his game with zero defeats against anyone not named Jose Aldo since dropping down to featherweight.
The New Jersey native compiled a five-fight winning streak after his first loss to Aldo. After dropping another decision to Aldo last summer at UFC 200, Edgar bounced back with a UD victory over Jeremy Stephens at UFC 205.
Rodriguez (10-1 MMA, 6-0 UFC) has a dynamic skill set that features all sorts of flying and spinning kicks. He used a front kick followed by punches in his destruction of B.J. Penn by second-round KO in January.
The promotion thinks so highly of Rodriguez that he was featured in main events the last two times out. Before dusting Penn in a complete mismatch, he won a split decision over Alex Caceres last August. Rodriguez also has victories over Charles Rosa, Dan Hooker and Andre Fili.
Prediction: This is a huge step up in class for Rodriguez, who has never faced anyone with a pedigree anywhere close to Edgar’s neighborhood. (Sure, Hall of Famer B.J. Penn has an incredible resume, but the 2017 version of ‘The Prodigy’ that Rodriguez faced is a shell of the former champ.) Father Time is going to catch up with Edgar one day, but it won’t be Saturday night in Dallas. The time to point out Edgar’s elite cardio, incredible toughness and more experience passed a long time ago. Instead of going that route, I’ll simply say that Edgar is one of the best pound-for-pound mixed martial artists in the history of the sport. He faces a daunting challenge in Rodriguez, no doubt about it. But Edgar’s greatness will be too much for the youngster, who represents the future in the 145-pound loop. Unfortunately for Rodriguez, Edgar remains the present of this division with the lone exception of Aldo. Give me three units on Edgar at -125.
In yet another intriguing matchup that’ll serve as the Prelims headliner, lightweights Eddie Alvarez (28-5 MMA, 3-2 UFC) and Dustin Poirier will do battle. As of Friday, most books had Poirier (21-5 MMA, 13-4 UFC) as a -125 ‘chalk’ with the former lightweight champ available for a +105 payout. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -250, ‘under’ +180).
Alvarez, who opened as a -140 favorite and didn’t become the underdog until last Sunday, returns for the first time since getting his eggs scrambled by McGregor. The Philadelphia native had won the belt with a savage first-round KO of Rafael dos Anjos last summer.
Poirier moved up to lightweight after being knocked out by McGregor at UFC 178. The Cajun promptly ripped off four straight wins, including three first-round finishes. However, his unbeaten ledger at 155 was ruined by Michael Johnson in the UFC Hidalgo headliner when ‘The Menace’ scored a first-round KO. Poirier bounced back to earn a majority-decision win over Jim Miller in February at UFC 208.
Prediction: Who knows here?! Such a toss-up fight. I slightly lean to Poirier so give me one-half unit on him at the -120 price (5Dimes). I’ll also go with one-half unit on the ‘under’ that’s +225 at 5Dimes.
B.E.’s Octagon Nuggets
UFC President Dana White told Fox Sports Australia on Wednesday night that “we’re not waiting on GSP.” The plan has been for Bisping to make his second title defense against George St. Pierre, the former welterweight kingpin who has been on the sidelines for more than three years after giving up his belt following a controversial split-decision win over Johny Hendricks. According to a report from Ariel Helwani of MMAFighting.com that went up late Thursday night, GSP hasn’t officially been told by the UFC that he’s no longer facing Bisping. White told Fox Sports Australia that No. 1 contender Yoel Romero will now take on Bisping, but he might just be attempting to get GSP to agree to fight in July. St. Pierre has indicated that he will be ready to make his return in October. Presuming Dana sticks to his word, which doesn’t always happen, and makes the Romero-Bisping fight, then GSP and Anderson Silva can finally get after each other in October or November.
Miocic’s only other career loss besides the defeat against JDS came by second-round KO to Stefan Struve in September of 2012.
Jared Gordon came down with food poisoning Thursday night and was forced out of his FightPass bout against Michael Quinones.
UFC 211 was originally a 14-fight card, but a main-card scrap between flyweights Henry Cejudo and Sergio Pettis was cancelled due to a hand injury to Cejudo.
If gamblers are looking to take a small flyer on a huge underdog, I say it should be Marco Polo Reyes as a +305 ‘dog to James Vick.
Nine members of American Top Team are on this card, which I presume is some sort of record. Enjoy the show!