UFC 212 Best Bets
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Has the time come to usher in a new era in the UFC’s featherweight division? Until Max ‘Blessed’ Holloway (17-3 MMA, 13-3 UFC) defeated Anthony ‘Showtime’ Pettis by third-round knockout to win the interim belt at UFC 206, only Jose Aldo, Jr. and Conor McGregor had held the 145-pound strap since the division was created in 2011.
But on Saturday night in Rio de Janeiro at Jeunesse Arena, the fighting Pride of Waianae, Hawaii, who is just the second Hawaiian to wear UFC gold (B.J. ‘The Prodigy’ Penn is obviously the other.), will go on the road to take on Aldo and try to unify the belts in the UFC 212 headliner. The 25-year-old Holloway brings a 10-fight winning streak to Brazil. He hasn’t tasted defeat since dropping a unanimous decision to McGregor at UFC Fight Night 26 in August of 2013.
Since then, Holloway has seven finishes, including a submission of Cub Swanson, TKOs of Pettis and Charles Oliveira and unanimous-decision victories over veteran contenders like Cole Miller, Ricardo Lamas and Jeremy Stephens.
Aldo (26-2 MMA, 8-1 UFC) was installed as a favorite in the -135 range earlier in the week but on Wednesday, most books adjusted Holloway to the short ‘chalk.’ Then on Thursday morning, most spots had Aldo back in the favorite role in the -145 range. As of Friday, Aldo was -150 or -155 at most shops, leaving Holloway as the +130 underdog. The total was 4.5 rounds (‘over’ -165, ‘under’ +145).
The 30-year-old Aldo went more than a decade without a loss until falling in merely 13 seconds to McGregor in the biggest fight of his life at UFC 194. Before that defeat, he had successfully defended his featherweight belt seven times, including wins over Frankie Edgar, Mark Hominick, Kenny Florian, Lamas, The Korean Zombie and Chad Mendes (twice). Going back to his WEC days, he knocked off the likes of Urijah Faber, Swanson and Mike Brown.
After the loss to McGregor, Aldo wanted an immediate rematch but ‘The Notorious’ had other plans. He wanted to go up to lightweight and face Rafael dos Anjos. The fight was booked but less than two weeks before UFC 196, RDA pulled out with a foot injury. This prompted Nate Diaz to step in on short notice, resulting in an upset win by way of second-round rear-naked choke.
The defeat left McGregor longing for a rematch with Diaz, which left the 145-pound loop hostage to McGregor’s wishes. Therefore, the promotion booked Aldo to face Edgar at UFC 200 for the interim featherweight championship. Edgar had not lost at 145 since his debut against Aldo. ‘The Answer’ brought a five-fight winning streak into the Octagon at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
However, Edgar’s streak was ended when Aldo captured a UD victory (49-46, 48-47, 49-46) as a +110 underdog.
Prediction: I’m a believer in Max Holloway. He’s certainly up against it in this spot, but I think he’s going to get it done. I like Holloway for two units for the +130 payout.
In the co-main event, Claudia Gahdelja (14-2 MMA, 3-2 UFC) will continue her trek back to another shot at the women’s strawweight strap when she faces Polish kickboxer Karolina Kowalkiewicz. As of Friday, most books had Gahdelia listed as an enormous -360 ‘chalk,’ with Kowalkiewicz available for a +285 payout. The total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -350, ‘under’ +290).
Gahdelia has just two blemishes on her resume with both coming against current strawweight champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who beat her by split decision in December of 2014 and by UD (48-46, 48-45, 48-46) last summer in Vegas. The victory at TUF 23 Finale garnered Fight of the Night honors.
Gahdelia, who moved from Brazil to Albuquerque this past fall, bounced back from her recent defeat to the champ by capturing a UD win over Cortney Casey at UFC Fight Night 100 last November. She owns a perfect 11-0 record when fighting in her home country.
Kowalkiewicz (10-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC) suffered her first career loss to Jedrzejczyk at UFC 205 in New York City last November. Prior to that defeat, she earned a title shot by dusting Randa Markos, Heather Jo Clark and Rose Namajunas.
Prediction: Kowalkiewicz is way too good to be this big of an underdog. I’ll go with one unit on Kowalkiewicz for the +285 return.
In a middleweight clash on the main card, Vitor Belfort (25-13-1 MMA, 14-9-1 UFC) will square off against fellow veteran Nate ‘The Great’ Marquardt. As of Friday, most books had Belfort installed as a -165 favorite with Marquardt at +135 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $135). The total was 1.5 rounds (‘under’ -210, ‘over’ +175).
The 40-year-old Belfort will be making his 25th and final walk to the Octagon. This has been hailed as his retirement bout, but then the Brazilian legend revealed earlier this week during a media scrum that he has more fights on his contract and wants to continue his career with the UFC. Whether that will come to fruition or not is anyone’s guess.
What’s not up for debate is that Belfort has lost a step and without TRT and with USADA’s drug-testing program, he is not the beast he was a few years ago. Belfort had lost four of his last five fights until Kelvin Gastelum’s recent win over him was ruled a no-contest after Gastelum tested positive for marijuana. Gastelum was going to face Anderson Silva on this card until being flagged by USADA and issued a short suspension.
Belfort hasn’t tasted victory since a first-round KO win over Dan Henderson in November of 2015. Since beating ‘Hendo,’ he’s been knocked out three times by Jacare Souza, Gegard Mousasi and Gastelum. Belfort owns notable career wins over the likes of Tank Abbott, Wanderlei Silva, Heath Herring, Randy Couture, Rich Franklin, Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson, Michael Bisping and Luke Rockhold.
Marquardt (35-17-2 MMA, 13-10 UFC) is the former Pancrase middleweight champ and Strikeforce welterweight champ. He has limped to a 3-6 record during his second tour of duty in the UFC. The 38-year-old veteran still possesses plenty of power that was on display in KO victories over Tamdan McCrory, C.B. Dollaway and James Te-Huna. The wins over McCrory and Te-Huna garnered him a pair of Performance of the Night bonuses. Marquard has notable career victories over Tyron Woodley, Rousimar Palhares, Demian Maia, Martin Kampmann, Jeremy Horn and Yves Edwards.
Prediction: 5Dimes.eu has a proposition bet for Belfort to win inside the distance at a -127 price. Let’s go with that wager for one unit.
In a middleweight scrap, Oluwale Bamgbose will be a road underdog against 26-year-old Brazilian Paulo Borrachinha. As of Friday, most books had Costa as a -270 favorite, leaving Bamgbose as the +230 ‘dog. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘under’ -250, ‘over’ +210).
Borrachinha (9-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC) has won all nine of his career fights via first-round finishes, with eight knockouts and one submission. He needed just 77 seconds in his Octagon debut to take out Garreth McLellan with punches at UFC Fight Night 106.
Bamgbose (6-2 MMA, 1-2 UFC) is off a UD loss to Cezar Ferreira in April. He lost by first-round KO to Uriah Hall in August of 2015. Between those bouts, Bamgbose scored a 60-second KO over Daniel Sarafian.
Prediction: I think someone gets put to sleep early, but the ‘under’ is too expensive for my taste. I’ll pass.
In the main-card opener at 10:00 p.m. Eastern, Erick Silva (19-7-1 MMA, 7-6 UFC) will collide with Holloway’s Hawaiian teammate, Yancy Medeiros, in a welterweight showdown. As of Friday, most spots had Medeiros installed as a -140 favorite. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -165, ‘under’ +145).
Silva, the +120 underdog, is no longer the hot young prospect with championship potential. The 32-year-old Brazilian is now an inconsistent veteran who can’t crack the 170-pound rankings. If does have a run to the title in him, the time is certainly now.
Silva avoided a three-fight losing streak by capturing a third-round submission win over Luan Chagas last September. All seven of Silva’s UFC wins have come by finish (five submission and two knockouts) and six of them have ended in Round 1. However, just when he appears poised to jump into the rankings, he fails to get his hand raised. Those defeats have come against the likes of Neil Magny (split decision), Matt Brown (third-round KO), The Stun Gun (second-round KO) and Jon Fitch (UD). In the fights against Brown and The Stun Gun, Silva was on the cusp of victory with his opponents badly hurt, yet he failed to finish the deal.
Medeiros (14-4 MMA, 5-4 UFC) also likes to get finishes, collecting four submissions and one KO during his nine-fight UFC tenure. He is off a second-round win by rear-naked choke over Sean Spencer last September.
Prediction: I’m all about the ‘under’ here for a +145 return. Let’s go three units on the ‘under’ and also 1.5 units on Silva, who owns a 19-3-1 career record when fighting in his native Brazil.
B.E.’s Octagon Nuggets
Bamgbose and Borrachinha had to be separate during an intense staredown at Friday’s official weigh-ins. As they were broken apart, Borrachinha pushed Bamgbose in the face aggressively.
According to a report from MMA analyst Robin Black, The Korean Zombie has pulled out of his featherweight scrap against Ricardo Lamas at UFC 214 due to an unspecified injury.
Besides his betting supporters, friends, family and the state of Hawaii, Holloway’s biggest fan Saturday night will be Frankie ‘The Answer’ Edgar. If Holloway can win impressively (making it where nobody is longing for an immediate rematch), Edgar will almost certainly get another crack at the featherweight title. Hell, Edgar will almost certainly face Holloway next regardless of Saturday’s result, but he’d love to do so with the belt on the line.
Former light heavyweight champion ‘Suga’ Rashad Evans will take on 14th-ranked ‘Smilin’ Sam Alvey in a middleweight clash at UFC Fight Night 114 on Aug. 5 in Mexico City. Evans has lost three fights in a row, including his 185-pound debut against Daniel Kelly at UFC 209 in March. The former Michigan State wrestler has just two wins in the last five years. Meanwhile, Alvey saw his four-fight winning streak snapped in a UD loss to Thales Leites in April. Like Denver, Mexico City is at elevation and cardio will be immensely important for this scrap.
Dana White revealed during one of his media scrums this week that Cyborg Justino will “definitely” be on the UFC 214 card in Anaheim. However, her opponent won’t be ‘Alpha’ Cat Zingano, who will eventually face Cyborg, just not at UFC 214. Zingano told Ariel Helwani of MMAFighting.com that she’s dealing with a ‘medical issue’ and won’t be ready by late July. Zingano made it clear that she wants Cyborg next and will be ready for that challenge soon. Zingano hasn’t won since knocking off current women’s bantamweight champ Amanda Nunes at UFC 178. Since then, she took her first career loss against Ronda Rousey by first-round submission before dropping a UD to Julianna Pena at UFC 200 last summer.