UFC 213 Betting News and Notes

UFC 213 Best Bets
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night for a 12-fight card. The UFC 213 main event features women’s bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes, who will make her second title defense against Valentina Shevchenko.

All 24 fighters made weight on Friday morning.

The Early Prelims will consist of three fights that start at 6:30 p.m. Eastern. The four-fight prelims will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1 at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. Then as usual, the main card on pay-per-view gets going at 10:00 p.m. Eastern.

Nunes (14-4 MMA, 7-1 UFC) has won five consecutive fights since her only UFC loss to ‘Alpha’ Cat Zingano by third-round knockout at UFC 178 in September of 2014. Since then, ‘The Lioness’ has four first-round finishes and earned three Performance of the Night bonuses.

Her toughest test during that stretch came against Shevchenko, who dropped a unanimous decision (29-27, 29-28 & 29-27) to Nunes at UFC 196. Shevchenko, the Kyrgystani-Peruvian muay thai fighter who is now 29 years old, won the third round after struggling in the early going.

If there’s a hole in Nunes’s game, the theory is that if you can survive her early surge, her cardio might not be there in the later rounds. Nevertheless, the champ has won eight of her last nine bouts by finishing her foes in the opening stanza.

Since beating Shevchenko, Nunes has absolutely destroyed a pair of women’s MMA legends in Miesha Tate and Ronda Rousey. Nunes took the belt from Tate with a first-round KO at the 3:16 mark in last summer’s UFC 200 headliner. Then at UFC 207 last December, Nunes needed only 48 seconds to dust Rousey, who was out on her feet when referee Herb Dean stopped the bout after a violent barrage of punches from Nunes.

Shevchenko (14-2 MMA, 3-1 UFC) took her only other career loss against former title challenger Liz Carmouche back in 2010. She made her Octagon debut with a split-decision win over Sarah Kaufman at UFC Orlando in December of 2015. Since losing to Nunes, Shevchenko won a five-round unanimous decision over former champ Holly Holm in the UFC on FOX 20 headliner.

She was in another main event this past January, submitting Julianna Pena in the second round of the UFC on FOX 23 headliner from Pepsi Center in Denver. That victory earned her the forthcoming title shot.

When the odds opened at 5Dimes.eu in mid-May, Nunes was a -150 favorite. Within a few days, the number was down to around -120, where it remained at most books until June 27 when most spots moved Shevchenko into the short ‘chalk’ role. As of Friday afternoon, most books had Shevchenko at -120 or it was a pick ‘em (-110 or -115 either way). The total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -125, ‘under’ +105).

Prediction: I LOVE Nunes here! In fact, let’s go SIX units on the champ at -105 odds (The Greek as of 2:30 p.m. Eastern on Friday). The narrative being pushed by those that like Shevchenko is that she won Round 3 in the last meeting between these two ladies. The thinking is that the longer the fight goes, Shevchenko will be the stronger fighter with the superior cardio. That’s all well and good IF Shevchenko survives the early onslaught from Nunes. It says here that she won’t. Also, let's remind readers that two judges had Nunes by a 29-27 score in the last encounter, meaning she had a 10-8 round early on. I think Nunes closes the deal with a mid-to-late first round KO or it’ll come early in Round 2. Obviously, I’m not against some small change on the ‘under,’ but I’m just going to concentrate on the side with my risk in the main event.

In the co-main event, Robert Whittaker and Yoel Romero will collide for the interim middleweight strap. The current 185-pound kingpin Michael Bisping is sidelined with a knee injury, but he’ll face the winner later this year to unify the division. (Presuming talk of GSP-Bisping is over, which Dana White has said it is. However, reports on Friday surfaced that GSP texted both Bisping and GSP challenging him to fight in November in New York. Only time will tell whether or not that means anything.)

As of Thursday (7/6), most books had Whittaker (18-4 MMA, 9-2 UFC) installed as a -130 favorite, leaving Romero at +110 on the comeback. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -200, ‘under’ +160). By Friday afternoon, most spots had Whittaker down to -125 or -120. The total remained the same.

Whittaker, the 26-year-old from New Zealand, has ripped off seven straight wins, including four knockouts. He is off the biggest victory of his career, destroying Jacare Souza with a brutal KO midway through Round 2. Whittaker’s vicious striking assault left Souza a bloody mess in April at UFC on FOX 24 in Kansas City.

Whittaker is 6-0 at middleweight, moving up to 185 after going 3-2 in his first five UFC fights at welterweight. That’s the division where he suffered losses to Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson and Court McGee (by split decision).

During his six-fight run at middleweight, Whittaker has bagged four fight-night bonuses. His win over Clint Hester by second-round KO garnered Fight of the Night honors. His finishes of Brad Tavares, Derek Brunson and Souza earned him Performance of the Night bonuses.

Other victims of Whittaker include Rafael Natal, Uriah Hall, Mike Rhodes, Colton Smith and Brad Scott.

Romero (13-1 MMA, 8-0 UFC) is a 40-year-old former Olympic wrestler from Cuba who didn’t make his mixed-martial-arts debut until 2009. He beat Brunson and Tim Kennedy in bouts that garnered Fight of the Night honors, but his win over Kennedy was marred by controversy.

Kennedy had Romero in all sorts of trouble late in Round 2 and nearly finished him. Then when the bell signaled the start of Round 3, Romero didn’t get off his stool. Romero’s corner had spilled water all over the Octagon and while referee Big John McCarthy instructed the mess to be cleaned, Romero remained on the stool. He and his corner claimed they were confused by McCarthy’s instructions due to the language barrier. With Kennedy lifting his arms in the air to claim victory, McCarthy told him the fight wasn’t over and ordered Romero up and his corner out of the Octagon.

By then, however, Romero had been granted at least an extra 25-30 seconds to recover. He subsequently knocked out Kennedy early in the third stanza.

Romero owns other notable wins over the likes of former champs Chris Weidman and Lyoto Machida. He earned POTN bonuses in each victory. Other victims include Tavares, Souza and Clifford Starks.

Prediction: This is an extremely tough call on the side. I slightly lean to Whittaker, but I’m going to pass. Instead, I’ll go with one unit on ‘under’ 1.5 rounds (best price is +175 at 5Dimes.eu and SBG Global).

Alistair ‘The Reem’ Overeem and Fabricio Werdum are poised to clash for a third time in the rubber match of their heavyweight rivalry. As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Overeem (42-15-1 MMA, 7-4 UFC) installed as a -130 favorite. Werdum was the +110 underdog at BetOnline.ag. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -175, ‘under’ +155).

Overeem, who is now 37, has a 5-1 record in his last six outings. He bounced back from a first-round KO loss to Stipe Miocic for the heavyweight title at UFC 203 by defeating Mark Hunt by third-round KO at UFC 209. Overeem owns a plethora of notable scalps during his storied career, including victories over the likes of Hunt (twice), Werdum, Andrei Arlovski, Junior dos Santos, Roy ‘Big Country’ Nelson, Stefan Struve, Frank Mir, Brock Lesnar, Todd Duffee, Brett Rogers and Vitor Belfort (twice). That’s six former UFC champions that have lost to Overeem.

His three other UFC losses have come against Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva, Travis Browne and Ben Rothwell.

Werdum (21-6-1 MMA, 9-3 UFC) was cut by the UFC after being knocked out in Dos Santos’s promotional debut at UFC 90. The 39-year-old Brazilian transitioned over to Strikeforce where he captured wins over Bigfoot Silva and Fedor Emelianenko, who saw his winning streak spanning more than a decade ended by Werdum’s triangle armbar only 69 seconds into their showdown in June of 2010 in San Jose.

Werdum’s run with Strikeforce ended when he dropped a UD to Overeem in the Heavyweight Grand Prix quarterfinals. They had first collided under the PRIDE banner in 2006 when Werdum won with a kimura submission in Round 2.

In his second run with the UFC, Werdum won his first four fights to earn a title shot. When then-champ Cain Velasquez had to withdraw from UFC 180 due to an injury, Hunt took the bout on short notice in Mexico City for the interim heavyweight strap. After dominating Round 1 and knocking Werdum down with punches several times, Hunt was caught by a flying knee to the face from Werdum, who finished him with subsequent punches.

Velasquez and Werdum would finally meet in Mexico City at UFC 188. Velazquez made a crucial mistake by not going down to Mexico City, which is located at high altitude, until just over a week before the fight. Meanwhile, Werdum, who had already fought in Mexico City, spent a month training there leading into the match.

Velasquez, known for his endless cardio, was clearly gassing due to the altitude late in the second round. In Round 3, he shot for a takedown and got caught in a nasty guillotine choke by Werdum that forced him to tap. But in Werdum’s first title defense at home in Brazil at UFC 198, he was KO’d by Miocic in the opening round.

Since then, Werdum won a one-sided UD over Travis Browne, who was also dusted by Werdum in a title-eliminator bout in 2014 in Orlando. Werdum owns other notable career wins over ‘Big Nog,’ Nelson, Brandon Vera and Gabriel Gonzaga (twice).

Prediction: I like Overeem here. Let’s go 1.5 units on ‘The Reem’ at the best price (-125 at 5Dimes and SBG Global). I’ll call for a second-round KO.

The two other fights on the main card are Anthony ‘Showtime’ Pettis (-245) versus Jim Miller (+205) and Curtis ‘Razor’ Blaydes (-775) vs. Daniel Omielanczuk (+500). Pettis is moving back up to lightweight, where he once wore the belt, after a two-fight stint at featherweight. Blaydes is the biggest ‘chalk’ on the card for his heavyweight showdown with Omielanczuk.

I’ll go with one unit on the UNDER (1.5 rounds, +110 odds) for Blaydes vs. Omielanczuk.

B.E.’s Octagon Nuggets

The Prelims headliner on FS1 is a heavyweight scrap between ninth-ranked Browne and 14th-ranked Aleksei ‘The Boa Constrictor’ Aleinik. Browne has lost three in a row by knockout, while Oleinik is 3-1 since joining the UFC. The 40-year-old Russian is 51-10-1 overall and has bagged two POTN bonuses in four UFC fights. One of those came his last time out when he scored the first-ever UFC submission by Ezekiel choke over Omielanczuk. I’m all about fading Browne these days, so give me one unit on Oleinik as a +200 underdog.

It was revealed this week that when Kelvin Gastelum was forced off of the UFC 212 card and his matchup versus Anderson Silva, the promotion tried to book a third fight between Silva and Chris Weidman. However, Weidman declined the fight that would’ve taken place in Brazil. Weidman took Silva’s belt with a second-round KO at UFC 162 and then defended his strap in an immediate rematch by a second-round TKO that was caused by Silva’s broken leg sustained when Weidman checked a leg kick at UFC 168. Weidman, who has lost three fights in a row, is poised to face Gastelum in the UFC on FOX 25 headliner in Uniondale, N.Y., on July 22. Gastelum is a -140 favorite.

Ruthless’ Robbie Lawler vs. Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone is back on for UFC 214. Sportsbook.ag has Lawler as a -160 ‘chalk,’ while Cerrone is a +130 ‘dog.

Gilbert ‘El Nino’ Melendez is moving down to featherweight, where he’ll make his 145-pound debut vs. Jeremy ‘Little Heathen’ Stephens at UFC 215.

Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua will get a rematch against Ovince St. Preux in the UFC Japan headliner in September. Combate first reported this development. OSP scored a first-round KO in just 33 seconds on the road over Rua in a 2014 showdown in Brazil. Rua has won three fights in a row, while OSP just ended a three-fight losing streak win a win over Marcos Rogerio de Lima.