UFC 215 Betting Picks & Preview
By T. Wilkinson
Bangthebook.com
Demetrious Johnson will look to make history on Saturday night at UFC 215 in Edmonton, as he goes for his 11th straight title defense which would break the record he currently shares with Anderson Silva. Johnson is a huge favorite to defeat Ray Borg on Saturday in Edmonton in the main event at UFC 215 at odds of -1200. The other feature bout in the pay-per-view card has Amanda Nunes defending her bantamweight title against Valentina Shevchenko. Let’s look at the UFC 215 card with a focus on the top two fights and UFC picks.
UFC 215 takes place at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta on Saturday, September 9, 2017. The five-fight main pay-per-view card features Demetrious Johnson vs. Ray Borg and Amanda Nunes vs. Valentina Shevchenko.
Demetrious Johnson -1200 vs. Ray Borg (rounds 4.5 under -120)
Johnson is probably the most unheralded UFC champion in history. He almost never gets the credit he deserves. He has won his last 12 fights overall and he has defended his title 10 straight times. He can break Anderson Silva’s record for most successful title defenses if he wins against Borg. Johnson is simply outstanding in every area. He has a record of 26-2-1 with 10 wins by submission. Johnson has 65 takedowns in his career, fourth-most in UFC history.
Borg is 11-2 in his career but he has never fought someone like Johnson and this will be only the second five-round fight for Borg in his career. Borg does have strength but Johnson has the edge in reach and in speed. Borg is unlikely to get a submission or a knockout against Johnson, so his only chance would be to win by decision. That seems extremely unlikely, considering Johnson has more experience, more speed and more endurance.
Pick: I can’t lay 12-1 on Johnson but he should win this fight. I do think there is some value in taking the rounds over, as there is a good chance this fight goes to a decision.
Valentina Shevchenko -125 vs. Amanda Nunes (rounds 2.5 over -135)
These two were supposed to meet at UFC 213 but Nunes backed out at the last minute. Nunes has won seven fights in the division and rarely do her fights last long. She has 14 career wins, with 11 fights ending in the first round.
Shevchenko is 14-2 in her career with the two losses coming to Nunes and Liz Carmouche. The loss by Shevchenko to Nunes occurred in March of last year. Nunes did win by unanimous decision but it wasn’t easy, as Nunes was in serious trouble in the third round. This time around the fight is scheduled to go five rounds and that could be the edge Shevchenko needs.
Pick: This is a really tough fight to call, as I think Nunes will have the edge early and have a chance to finish Shevchenko but if the fight gets out of the second round then Shevchenko will have the edge. I think the best options would be to take Nunes to win by knockout or submission which should offer you odds of 2-1 or more than then also take the rounds to go over.
The other three fights on the main card have Rafael dos Anjos vs. Neil Magny, Jeremy Stephens vs. Gilbert Melendez and Ilir Latifi vs. Tyson Pedro. The preliminary card has four fights on FS1. Those are Sara McMann vs. Ketlen Vieira, Henry Cejudo vs. Wilson Reis, Sarah Moras vs. Ashlee Evans-Smith and Gavin Tucker vs. Rick Glenn. The three prelims on UFC Fight Pass are Mitch Clarke vs. Alex White, Luis Henrique vs. Arjan Bhullar and Kajan Johnson vs. Adriano Martins.
UFC 215 Best Bets
By Abe Chong
Vegasinsider.com
UFC 215 takes place on Saturday, September 9, 2017, at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Canada. The fight card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. following the FXX prelims. Bet on the latest UFC odds at BookMaker.eu now.
This Saturday, Demetrious Johnson had a chance to make UFC history with a record 1th consecutive title defense but his opponent Ray Borg pulled out due to an illness.
In the co-main event, the two best women’s bantamweights in the world will collide, with Amanda Nunes defending her title against No. 1 contender Valentina Shevchenko. It’s a matchup that has divided opinions - neither fans nor oddsmakers can seem to pick a favorite.
Two former champions are also set for the main card, with Rafael dos Anjos looking to climb the 170-pound ranks and former Strikeforce titleholder Gilbert Melendez looking for new life at featherweight. The loss of Ngannou-Dos Santos hurts, but it’s still a very watchable card from top to bottom.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds, and assign Cherry Picks and Underdog Specials for this card.
Co-Main Event
Amanda Nunes -105 vs. Valentina Shevchenko -126
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -135, under +105
Can a “Bullet” stop a “Lioness”?
There’s two trains of thought here: Nunes’ explosive striking leads her to victory, or Shevchenko’s cardio and durability gets the #andnew. The odds don’t help bettors out either - it’s basically a pick’em with both payouts in the negative.
If you’re dead set on picking a winner, it’s hard not to lean towards Nunes. In terms of raw physical ability and sheer talent, she has no peer. On top of her unreal punching power, “Lioness” is a BJJ black belt to boot. Cardio is an issue, but she’s had ample time at American Top Team to train for a five-rounder. Shevchenko’s lack of output gives the champ a chance to take and hold onto an early lead as well.
For our money, the over on 2.5 rounds is probably the best value. It literally takes a bullet to stop “Bullet”, and Nunes will likely pace herself given how she gassed the last time they met. The price isn’t that much more expensive than picking either fighter to win.
Cherry Pick: Over 2.5 rounds -135
Featherweight
Gilbert Melendez -120 vs. Jeremy Stephens -110
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -225, under +170
Shrinking About It
Melendez is hoping a smaller weight class can revive his career after a 1-4 stint that left him way outside of the lightweight title picture. Jeremy Stephens should provide a solid litmus test - “Lil’ Heathen” is the guy you beat to get to the contenders.
Both guys are comfortable on the feet, with Melendez employing an awkward-yet-effective boxing style and Stephens going with a more traditional kickboxing approach. The question here is whether Melendez’ wrestling will be effective. In his prime, “El Nino” was a fantastic takedown artist with brutal GNP.
Stephens can be tough to take down, but his defense isn’t airtight. Then again, Melendez is clearly a bit past his prime. It’s a tough call, but Stephens should be able to shuck off Gilbert’s attempts and control the striking exchanges to gut out a close decision.
Cherry Pick: Stephens to win -110
Welterweight
Rafael dos Anjos -200 Neil Magny +160
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -230, under +170
Shorty Stands Tall
The 6’3” Magny is going to dwarf the 5’9” Dos Anjos, but the former lightweight champ has the type of close quarters pressure style that tends to make Magny skittish. On paper, this is RDA’s fight to lose - he looked superb in his welterweight debut against Tarec Saffiedine.
But Magny at +160 makes it interesting. At those odds, it’s a lot easier to believe that Magny’s combination of length, athleticism and bottomless cardio can upend RDA’s welterweight run. If he pushes the pace, this could get interesting.
Underdog Special: Magny to win +160