UFC Betting Notebook
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
The headliner of UFC Fight Night 94 will pit lightweight contenders Dustin Poirier and Michael Johnson on Sept. 17 in Hidalgo, Texas. The city on the Mexican border with a population of just a bit more than 11,000 is the smallest place ever visited by the UFC. The show will be at State Farm Arena, the home of the Rio Grande Valley Vipers of the NBA’s Developmental League. Since losing by first-round knockout to Conor McGregor nearly two years ago, Poirier has moved up to 155 pounds and cruised to a 4-0 record, including three first-round Kos. Johnson has dropped back-to-back fights on his resume, but he was robbed by the judges in a split-decision defeat against Beneil Dariush last August in Nashville. He then lost a unanimous decision to Nate Diaz at UFC Orlando this past December. Prior to those setbacks, however, ‘The Menace’ had won four in a row.
The co-main event for UFC Hidalgo will feature a pair of middleweight contenders in Uriah Hall and Derek Brunson. Brunson was scheduled to face Gegard Mousasi at UFC 200, but he was forced to withdraw from the card. He has won four consecutive fights, including three straight victories by first-round Kos. Brunson is 6-1 in his last seven Octagon appearances dating back to late 2012, with the only loss coming to Yoel Romero in a Fight of the Night. Meanwhile, Hall has was slated to face Anderson Silva at UFC 198, but ‘The Spider’ pulled out of the bout the week of the fight when he needed his gallbladder removed. Hall has had his hand raised in five of his last outings, but he is off a UD loss to Robert Whittaker at UFC 193 last November.
Most offshore books released a plethora of odds this past weekend. Let’s start with a few matchups on the UFC 201 card in Atlanta at Philips Arena on July 30. The odds for the main event have been out for weeks, with welterweight champ ‘Ruthless’ Robbie Lawler installed as a -230 ‘chalk’ versus Tyron Woodley, who is a +190 underdog (risk $100 to win $190). Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson is waiting for the winner of that showdown.
In the UFC 201 co-main event, third-ranked strawweight Rose Namajunas will take on Karolina Kowalkiewicz as a -260 favorite. The fifth-ranked Kowalkiewicz is +200 on the comeback. In a welterweight scrap, Matt ‘The Immortal’ Brown will be in bounce-back mode when he collides with Jake ‘The Juggernaut’ Ellenberger. Since ripping off a seven-fight winning streak to move into title contention, Brown has dropped three of his last four bouts. There’s really no shame in any of the three defeats to current 170-pound kingpin Lawler (UD), former champ Johny Hendricks (UD) and red-hot Demian Maia (at UFC 198). Between the losses to Hendricks and Maia, Brown beat Tim Means by first-round guillotine choke at UFC 189. Ellenberger is probably fighting for his job. Like Brown, he was in title contention at one point, albeit further back in early 2013. The Omaha native won eight of nine fights after losing a split decision to Carlos Condit in his UFC debut. However, Ellenberger has fallen on hard times since then, going 1-5 in his last six fights. The only victory came by second-round submission against a way-past-his-prime Josh Koscheck at UFC 184. Brown is favored in the -250/300 range at most spots, while Ellenberger is a +220ish underdog. The total is 1.5 rounds (‘under’ -155, ‘over’ +115). I’ll be interested in Brown to win inside the distance as long as those odds are south of -150.
The odds for the UFC 202 headliner – Diaz-McGregor II -- have been out for more than a month. It was a pick ‘em for several weeks, but the odds have moved in the last two weeks. McGregor has moved up to -130 or -135 at most books, while Nate Diaz is now +115 at a few spots. The total is 2.5 rounds (‘under’ -135, ‘over’ +115). Diaz has won back-to-back fights over Michael Johnson and McGregor in +300 and +350 underdog spots, respectively, to earn his betting backers 6.5 units of profit.
Other UFC 202 odds were released this past weekend. Maia, who has won five straight fights, will take on Condit on the main card. The winner will be move directly in line, albeit behind ‘Wonderboy,’ for the next welterweight title shot. After the Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace opened at -130, he moved up to as high as -180 before coming back down to -130 where he was early Tuesday afternoon (7/19). Condit, who is off a split-decision loss to Lawler in a fight that remains one of the leading candidates for 2016 Fight of the Year, is the even-money ‘dog at most spots. The total is 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -180, ‘under’ +140).
In the UFC 202 co-main event, a fight originally scheduled for UFC on FOX 20 will go down between 205-pound contenders Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson and Glover Teixeira. Johnson is a -250 ‘chalk,’ while Teixeira is +190 on the comeback. The total is 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -125, ‘under’ +105). Also on the 202 main card, Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone will meet Rick ‘The Horror’ Story as a -185 ‘chalk.’ Story is the +150 underdog. Cerrone has gone 2-0 in the welterweight loop since moving up a division after his loss to Rafael dos Anjos for the lightweight strap at UFC Orlando last December. Cerrone, who is 10-1 in his last 11 Octagon appearances, has wins over Alex Oliveira by first-round submission and Patrick Cote by third-round KO. Story is in search of a fourth straight win after winning a UD over Tarec Saffiedine over Memorial Day Weekend.
Alexander ‘The Mauler’ Gustafsson is poised to return to the cage at UFC Fight Night 93 in Hamburg on Sept. 3. Gustafsson is an enormous -600 ‘chalk’ versus Jan Blachowicz, who is a +400 underdog.
Jon ‘Bones’ Jones saw his temporary suspension extended Monday by the Nevada Athletic Commission. The commission revealed the two substances Jones tested positive for: Hydroxy Clomiphene (an anti-estrogenic agent) and Letrozole metabolite (an aromatase inhibitor). Jones took to twitter and termed himself as “a victim of his own ignorance.” Jones is almost certainly facing a two-year suspension.
Speaking of two-year suspensions for anti-doping violations, Brock Lesnar is likely facing the same scenario after being flagged by USADA for failing a June 28 out-of-competition drug test. Lesnar told the Associated Press this past Friday, “We’ll get to the bottom of this.” Lesnar returned to the Octagon after a 4.5-year absence and beat Mark Hunt as a +135 underdog at UFC 200. Lesnar was reportedly tested eight times and USADA confirmed that he passed every other test with the exception of the one on June 28. His date to appear in front of the NAC has yet to be set.
Hunt is none too happy with Lesnar testing positive. In the weeks leading up to the fight, Hunt stated that he felt Lesnar “was juiced to the gills.” After the positive test was revealed this past Friday, Hunt said he wanted half of Lesnar’s $2.5 million purse. Since then, he’s stated he wants the entire purse or his immediate release from the UFC. Hunt added that Lesnar hits like a ‘pu**y’ even though [he tested positive]. We still don’t know what Lesnar tested positive for.
Although the show is still lacking a main event, UFC on FOX 21 is set to take place in Vancouver at Rogers Arena on Aug. 27. Anthony Pettis vs. Charles Oliveira will square off in ‘Showtime’s 145-pound debut that will likely be the co-main event. The card added another fight Monday when veteran lightweights Joe Lauzon and Jim Miller signed on the dotted line. This will be a rematch of one of the best fights in lightweight history at UFC 155 in December of 2012. Miler won a UD in what is probably the bloodiest fight in UFC history. Both fighters are off first-round KO wins at UFC 200. Miller took out Takanori Gomi, while Lauzon finished Diego Sanchez after Sanchez’s 10 previous fights had gone the distance.
Legendary boxing trainer Freddie Roach has worked frequently with former welterweight champ Georges St. Pierre in the past. He recently told media members that current middleweight champ Michael Bisping turned down a title defense against GSP. Bisping took to twitter to say that he was never offered the fight. Bisping is going to defend his title against Dan Henderson in a rematch of the UFC 100 KO win by ‘Hendo.’ Dana White has indicated that the fight will hopefully be in Manchester for UFC 204, but nothing is official as far as that.