UFC Fight Night 108
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
The Octagon returns to Bridgestone Arena in Nashville on Saturday night for UFC Fight Night 108. In the main event of the 13-fight card, fifth-ranked featherweight contender Cub Swanson (24-7 MMA, 9-3 UFC) will take on unranked Artem Lebov in a five-round scrap.
As of early this morning, Swanson was an enormous -650 favorite with a total of 3.5 rounds (‘under’ -150, ‘over’ +130). Lebov (13-12-1 MMA, 2-2 UFC) was available for a +475 payout on the comeback (risk $100 to win $475).
Swanson has won three straight fights since suffering back-to-back losses to current interim featherweight champ and former lightweight champ Frankie Edgar. Before those defeats, Swanson ripped off six consecutive victories. His most impressive career scalps have come over Doo Ho Choi, Hacran Dias, Jeremy Stephens, Ross Pearson, Dustin Poirier, Dennis Siver and Charles Oliveira.
Lebov is best known for being one of Conor McGregor’s training partners. He was the runner-up in The Ultimate Fighter 22 lightweight tournament. He has won back-to-back fights over Chris Avila and Teruto ishihara.
‘Raging’ Al Iaquinta will return to the cage for the first time in more than two years to battle veteran lightweight Diego ‘Lionheart’ Sanchez in the co-main event. Iaquinta (12-3-1 MMA, 7-2 UFC) had been in a contract dispute with the promotion before opting to come back in search of his fifth consecutive victory.
As of early Saturday morning, most Vegas spots had Iaquinta installed as a -400 favorite with Sanchez as a +330 underdog. The total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -150, ‘under’ +130).
Iaquinta is a 29-year-old New York native who fights for the Serra-Longo Team and trains with former middleweight kingpin Chris Weidman. His four-fight winning streak includes three finishes over Rodrigo Damm, Ross Pearson and Joe Lauzon, in addition to a split-decision victory over Jorge Masvidal on April 4 of 2015.
Since the win over Masvidal, Iaquinta has seen three fights cancelled. He was going to take on Bobby Green at UFC Fight Night 71, but Green pulled out with an injury. Gilbert Melendez was slated to replace Green, but then Melendez was suspended when he pissed dirty for PEDs. Next, Iaquinta was going to meet Thiago Alves at UFC 205, but he withdrew from fight due to a contract dispute.
Sanchez (27-9 MMA, 16-9 UFC) has won three of his last four fights at 155 pounds, but he had zero business getting the split-decision nod from the judges in a 2014 scrap with Ross Pearson in Albuquerque. The 35-year-old southpaw brawler won The Ultimate Fighter 1 Middleweight Tournament more than 12 years ago.
Sanchez fought B.J. Penn for the lightweight championship at UFC 107 back in December of 2009. He lost via TKO (doctor stoppage) at the 2:37 mark of Round 5. Sanchez, who once bagged six Fight of the Night bonuses over a nine-fight stretch, owns notable victories over the likes of Jim Miller, former PRIDE lightweight kingpin Takanori Gomi, Martin Kampmann, Clay Guida, Joe Stevenson, Nick Diaz, Kenny Florian, Karo Parisyan and Jorge Santiago.
Let’s get to my picks…
UFC Fight Night 108 Best Bets
Diego Sanchez to defeat Al Iaquinta for one-half unit at +330 odds: Cage rust is a real thing and Iaquinta has two years worth of it. Sanchez always has a fighter’s chance. Let’s take a small risk for a chance at an outstanding payout.
Eddie Wineland for one-half unit to defeat John Dodson at +405 odds (5Dimes.eu): Wineland has won back-to-back fights and has the power to finish this fight with one punch, which is very rare for a 135-pounder. Dodson will have the speed advantage, of course, but he’s too expensive in this spot against the former WEC bantamweight champ. Wineland has 14 KOs and four submissions in his 23-win career.
Joe Lauzon at +165 odds for one unit to beat Stevie Ray: Lauzon is the best fighter Ray has ever faced, presenting a big step up in competition. I’ll take the crafty veteran at the generous underdog odds.
Two units on UNDER 1.5 rounds Ellenberger-Perry at -120 odds: Six of Perry’s nine career wins have come by first-round knockouts, and each of his nine wins have come via knockout. Meanwhile, Ellenberger has seen four of his last six bouts end in Round 1. The Omaha native has ended 14 of his 31 career wins by first-round finishes.