UFC Fight Night 112 Picks & Prediction
By T. Wilkinson
Bangthebook.com
UFC Fight Night 112 takes place on Sunday night in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma and features Michael Chiesa taking on Kevin Lee on FS1. There are six fights on the main card on FS1, and seven preliminary bouts, with four on FS2 and three on UFC Fight Pass. Let’s take a look at the six bouts on the main card and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night 112 takes place on Sunday, June 25 at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma with Michael Chiesa taking on Kevin Lee. There are six fights on the main card, which can be seen on FS1, and six preliminary bouts, with three on FS2 and three on UFC Fight Pass.
Kevin Lee -135 vs. Michael Chiesa
This should be an entertaining main event, as Lee and Chiesa have a major dislike for one another. They clashed in a press conference and had to be separated by security guards. Lee comes into this fight at 15-2 in his career and is on a four-fight winning streak, while Chiesa is 7-2 and has won five of his last six fights.
The two look pretty even in striking but Lee should have the edge on the mat. The one advantage Chiesa has is his anger against Lee and that might be enough to get him this win.
Johny Hendricks -220 vs. Tim Boetsch
These two veterans have combined for 38 wins in their careers, as Boetsch is 20-11, while Hendricks is 18-6. Boetsch has dropped four of his last six fights, while Hendricks has lost three of his last four. Hendricks has the edge on the mat and that should be the difference in this fight.
Felice Herrig -125 vs. Justine Kish
This fight could be one of the better ones on the card with Herrig come in at 12-6, while Kish is 6-0. Herrig has more experience and she knows how to finish fights with five finishes in her career. There is simply too much of a difference in class between these two fighters, so Herrig should get the win.
Dominick Reyes -320 vs. Joachim Christensen
Reyes is getting a lot of respect as he makes his UFC debut, as he is more than a 3-1 betting favorite. He is 6-0 in his career, while Christensen is 14-5. Oddsmakers usually know what they are doing with big odds on a newcomer, so I expect Reyes to get the win.
Tim Means -220 vs. Alex Garcia
The edge in striking goes to Means in this fight but the edge on the mat is with Garcia. I don’t see a big difference between these two fighters, so I will avoid a side and take the rounds to go over.
Dennis Siver -250 vs. B.J. Penn
This is an ugly matchup between two aging fighters. Siver is 22-11, while Penn is 16-11-2. Neither of these fighters is any good anymore, so it is surprising that Siver is more than a 2-1 favorite. There are not many opponents that Penn can beat anymore but Siver could be one of them. I will take the big price and go with Siver.
The four prelims on FS2 have Clay Guida vs. Erik Koch, Carla Esparza vs. Maryna Moroz, Devin Powell vs. Darrell Horcher and Vitor Miranda vs. Marvin Vettori. The three prelims on UFC Fight Pass are Jared Gordon vs. Michel Quinones, Josh Stanbury vs. Jeremy Kimball and Tony Martin vs. Johnny Case.
UFC FN 112 Best Bets
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
The Octagon is poised to land at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City for the second time on Sunday for a 13-fight card. The UFC first came to OKC in 2009 when Nate Diaz submitted Melvin Guillard in the main event.
The card gets started at 5:30 p.m. Eastern with the Early Prelims that consist of three scraps on UFC Fight Pass. Then at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on Fox Sports 2, the Prelims commence with a quartet of bouts headlined by a featherweight showdown between Clay Guida and Erik Koch. Finally, the main card starts at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on FS1.
The main event will feature Michael Chiesa and Kevin Lee, who will square off in a lightweight clash that will settle a heated rivalry. At a press conference in Dallas to promote several upcoming events on May 12, Lee took the microphone and said, “He’s going back to headline [UFC Fight Night 112 in OKC] because of me. After that, he’s going back to the prelims. I just hope he shows up, because I know his momma’s got tickets.”
Chiesa became irate immediately. He said, “Don’t you ever talk about my [expletive] mom! I’m going to smack the [expletive] out of you right now. Don’t you ever talk about my mom.”
Both fighters were about 10 yards away from each other on separate sides of the dais. With the cameras on Chiesa, it was unclear if Lee stood up or made some sort of gesture, but Chiesa rushed at him. Lee met him with a right hand just before security personnel jumped between the two men as they desperately tried to get at each other. Both were tossed out of the presser and have had plenty to say about what they are going to do to each other on Sunday night. Once again, security had to separate them at Friday’s staredowns.
As of Saturday afternoon, most betting shops had Lee (15-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC) installed as a -140 ‘chalk’ with Chiesa at +120 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $120). The total was 2.5 rounds (‘under’ -120, ‘over’ -110).
Chiesa (14-2 MMA, 7-2 UFC), who won Season 15 of The Ultimate Fighter and is currently ranked sixth in the 155-pound division, has won three straight fights and five of his last six. His lone setback during that span came when doctors stopped his bout with Joe Lauzon midway through Round 2 due to a cut. This resulted in a TKO loss in what was deemed Fight of the Night.
His three-fight winning streak includes victories over Mitch Clarke (UD), Jim Miller (2nd-round submission) and Beneil Dariush (2nd-round sub). Five of Chiesa’s seven UFC wins have come by rear-naked choke submissions.
Lee is only 24 and is ranked 11th in the lightweight loop. He is seeking his fifth consecutive win in this spot. Lee is 8-1 since dropping his UFC debut to Al Iaquinta by UD at UFC 169. His victims have included the likes of Francisco Trinaldo, Jake Matthews, Efrain Escudero and James Moontasri. Lee’s only loss since falling to Iaquinta came against Leonardo Santos at UFC 194 when Santos won by first-round KO.
Prediction: Both of these fighters are finishers. Lee has four finishes in his last five wins. Therefore, I’ll go with 1.5 units on ‘under’ 2.5 rounds at the -120 price. Also, I like Chiesa as a +120 underdog for three units. I think he gets it done by RNC early in Round 2.
In the co-main event, middleweights Johny ‘Big Rigg’ Hendricks and Tim ‘The Barbarian’ Boetsch will face each other. For the fourth time in his career, Hendricks either missed weight or was pulled off a card for weight-cutting issues on Saturday. In this instance, he missed weight in his second fight at 185 pounds, tipping the scales at 188, two pounds over the 186-allowance for non-title fights in the middleweight loop.
Most books had Hendricks (18-6 MMA, 13-6 UFC) favored in the -230 range in the weeks leading into the fight. After missing weight, however, the number dropped down into the -170 neighborhood, leaving Boetsch as the +145 underdog. The total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -175, ‘under’ +145).
By missing weight yet again, Hendricks is almost certainly facing a pink slip if he loses Sunday night. The former welterweight champ hasn’t been the same since spending 50 minutes inside of a cage with ‘Ruthless’ Robbie Lawler. He won the first fight with Lawler by a razor-thin unanimous decision (48-47 times three), only to drop the rematch by split decision when Lawler won the final round as Hendricks gassed out.
Since then, Hendricks is 2-3. He sandwiched a pair of decision wins over Matt Brown and Hector Lombard around a three-fight losing streak. The 33-year-old former wrestler out of Oklahoma State was knocked out by Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson to start his slide after the win over Brown. Then Hendricks lost consecutive UDs to Kelvin Gastelum and Neil Magny after missing weight before both contests.
Hendricks owns other notable career wins over the likes of Jon Fitch, Josh Koscheck, Martin Kampmann, Carlos Condit and Mike Pierce. His other defeats came to Rick Story and Georges St-Pierre, albeit in a controversial split decision vs. GSP.
Boetsch (20-11 MMA, 11-10 UFC) is poised to make his 22nd career walk to the Octagon. He won four fights in a row in 2011 and ’12, but he’s limped to a 4-7 record since then. With that said, the 36-year-old Boetsch registered back-to-back knockouts over Josh Samman and Rafael Natal in ’16. In his last outing, though, he was submitted by Jacare Souza in the first round at UFC 208.
Boetsch has six knockouts on his UFC resume. He pulled off one of the greatest comebacks in UFC history when he dropped Yushin Okami, who had dominated the first two stanzas, by KO in the first minute of Round 3 at UFC 144 in Japan.
Prediction: If not for the loss of underdog value on Boetsch, I would’ve been a little more aggressive here. But with +150 as the best price available, I’ll keep it to just one unit on Boetsch. Both men have dangerous knockout power, so I’ll also put one unit on the line for the ‘under’ to get a +145 payout. In this scenario, we pocket a slight profit with a split and earn a nice payout with a sweep.
The rest of the main card looks like this: Felice Herrig -110 vs. Justine Kish -120 (women’s strawweight), Dominick Reyes -340 vs. Joachim Christensen +270 (LHW), Tim Means -245 vs. Alex Garcia +195 (welterweight) and Dennis Siver -205 vs. B.J. Penn +165 (featherweight).
I only have one more play. That’s one unit on Clay Guida to upset Erik Koch as a +270 underdog (5Dimes.eu). Koch is fighting for only the second time in more than three years due to various injuries.
Although Guida is aging (35) and on the downside of his career, he looked outstanding in his last fight in the summer of 2016. He took the first two rounds against still-undefeated prospect Brian ‘T-City’ Ortega. Guida, who has incredible heart, cardio, toughness and fighting passion, was one minute away from a decision victory when Ortega landed a perfect flying knee to earn a third-round KO. Guida immediately contested the stoppage, but it was all for naught.
In conclusion, why on earth is Hall of Famer B.J. Penn still fighting? He hasn’t won since knocking out Matt Hughes in 2010, and that was the next-to-last fight of Hughes’s 54-fight career. Although I find it doubtful to occur, IF some late money comes in on ‘The Prodigy’ and we see the price on Siver come down to -160 or less expensive, then I recommend one unit on Siver, the veteran German kickboxer.
Finally, since we mentioned Hughes, nothing but best wishes to him and his family as he recovers from a crash last weekend when the truck he was driving in Illinois was struck by a train on the passenger’s side. At last report, Hughes’s family was planning on transporting him from Chicago to Atlanta’s Sheperd Center that specializes in rehabilitation from brain and spinal-cord injuries.