UFC Odds and Picks
By: Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS -- This Saturday night from San Antonio, Tex., the UFC gives us a key fight in the featherweight division between Cub Swanson and Jeremy Stephens (coverage starts at 7 p.m. ET, main event at 10 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1). Swanson is about a -260 favorite to get his sixth straight win, with Stephens catching around +210 odds as the underdog.
Swanson (20-5) with a win here could line himself up with a title shot later this year against Jose Aldo. Surely Swanson would love a chance to avenge a 2009 loss to Aldo in WEC, where he was KOed early in the first round.
Cub's last performance, in July 2013, might have been one of his best, as he was able to get a third-round stoppage over always-tough Dennis Siver in a fight that garnered fight of the night honors. A KO win over highly-regarded Ross Pearson is also among his five-bout winning streak.
For Stephens (23-9), this is another shot to get back into the picture in the loaded 145-pound division. Stephens is on a three-fight winning streak of his own after suffering three losses in a row before that.
But don’t put too much into those losses – they came against very tough lightweights, including champion Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone. While the drop to 145 pounds has seemed to make all the difference for Stephens, his wins haven’t exactly been against the best in the division.
The Linemakers' lean: At this weight, rounds are usually very close and hard to score, which makes laying a big price a risky proposition, but the lean here is toward Swanson. He's just the better of the two fighters at this moment.
Look for a fight that might not go the distance, as both fighters – win or lose – will want to impress in this main event as a guys who bring the action. If that’s the way the fight goes, look for Swanson to take Stephens out somewhere around the third round.
Laying the favorite looks like the way to go Saturday night.
UFC Fight Night 44
By Sportsbook.ag
Event: UFC Fight Night 44
Date: June, 28, 2014
Venue: AT&T Center
City: San Antonio, Texas
Featherweight Bout: Cub Swanson (20-5) vs. Jeremy Stephens (23-9)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Swanson -260, Stephens +207
Cub Swanson and Jeremy Stephens are in search of a huge victory in the featherweight class when they meet on Saturday in San Antonio.
Swanson enters this fight against Stephens on a five-match winning streak. In his last match against Dennis Siver at UFC 162, he ended the fight with a vicious set of punches in a second-round knockout. Swanson is an explosive athlete that has shown in his young career that he can win a match in many different ways. He has emerged as a fan favorite in large part because of his ability to put on a show for the crowd. During his five straight wins, four of the victories have come by way of knockout. He will have a difficult match though, going up against a dangerous fighter in Jeremy Stephens.
Like Swanson, Stephens comes into this match with a three-fight winning streak. In his last win against Darren Elkins, he showed terrific cardio by winning the match by way of unanimous decision. Both of these fighters have a big opportunity to move up the ladder in the featherweight class.
Of his 20 career victories, Swanson has eight wins by way of knockout. He also has seven wins by submission, as well as five wins by decision. He is extremely explosive with his punches, and has a rare combination of speed and power that very few fighters possess in the featherweight class. He has a big advantage on Stephens when it comes to landing significant strikes per minute, as he averaged 3.41, compared to only 2.69 by Stephens.
The combatants are nearly identical when it comes to striking percentage (46 percent for Swanson and 45 percent for Stephens), but Swanson is much more persistent to throwing his punches. While he is a terrific striker, Stephens has shown in his career that he has the ability to knock his opponent out.
Stephens has 23 victories in his career, with 17 of those wins coming by way of knockout. He also has four wins by decision, and two by way of submission. When he is in the octagon, he is looking to end the match with his punches.
This is the type of match where both guys will utilize a very similar game plan, and that could provide for a very exciting fight. Stephens does a very good job of defending against the takedown (61.4 percent). If this turns into a striking contest, Stephens will definitely feel comfortable in participating in that style of fight.
Ohter UFC Fight Night 44 Bouts
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag:
Heavyweight Matchup
Oleksiy Oliynyk -140
Anthony Hamilton +110
Flyweight Matchup
Ray Borg -425
Shane Howell +315
Middleweight Matchup
Andy Enz -175
Marcelo Guimaraes +145
Bantamweight Matchup
Johnny Bedford -230
Cody Gibson +185
Lightweight Matchup
Carlos Diego Ferreira -230
Colton Smith +185
Lightweight Matchup
Joe Ellenberger -220
James Moontasri +177
Middleweight Matchup
Antonio Braga Neto -150
Clint Hester +120
Featherweight Matchup
Ricardo Lamas -200
Hacran Dias +165
Middleweight Matchup
Cezar Ferreira -185
Andrew Craig +150
Welterweight Matchup
Kelvin Gastelum -400
Nico Musoke +300
Featherweight Matchup
Cub Swanson -260
Jeremy Stephens +207
Check out more UFC Fight Night 44 Betting Odds at Sportsbook.ag!