UFC Odds and Picks
By: Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS -- UFC Fight Night comes to us this Friday from Mashantucket, Conn. with a key fight in the middleweight division between 4th-ranked Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza and No. 7 Gegard Mousasi.
Souza is a -300 favorite, with Mousasi getting about +250 odds as the underdog. Souza, now 34, seems to be finding his peak form lately, as he is on a six-fight win streak with impressive wins over Yushin Okami and Ed Herman in that stretch.
A win for Souza (20-3) could easily put him in the conversation for a title shot some time next year. His last loss was to Luke Rockhold back in 2011, when he relinquished his Strikeforce middleweight title. However, that defeat doesn't look bad at all now, as Rockhold, also in the UFC middleweight division, is really on the move.
Although Souza and Mousasi have met before back in the Dream fighting promotion, too much emphasis shouldn’t be put on that fight. Mousasi won with a lucky upkick from his back even though Souza was winning at the time.
Mousasi (35-4-2) has won two of his three fights in the UFC, the last an easy first-round submission over Mark Munoz. Mousasi also lost a unanimous decision to the always-tough Lyoto Machida. While Mousasi lost most of the very close rounds, he gave a stellar account of himself in that bout.
Souza is the more "now" fighter and should be able to win a close, tough fight. However, I made this line a lot lower than what is being offered right now at sports books in Vegas, making it hard to play on the favorite. I also can't argue with anyone making a play on a solid fighter like Mousasi at a generous +250 price.
The undercard
Preceding the main event is a heavyweight bout between Alistair Overeem and Ben Rothwell. Overeem is a -500 favorite, with Rothwell getting +400 odds on the take back.
You never know which Overeem (37-13) will show up. Will it be the superstar who took out Brock Lesnar in the first round or the out-of-shape Overeem who tired and lost to Travis Browne in the first round?
Rothwell (33-9) clearly isn't in the same league as Overeem at his best, but he is a cagey veteran who will likely try to withstand the early barrage Overeem usually comes with. If he can do that and take this fight past the first round, anything is possible. Getting 4-to-1 is pretty enticing against an unpredictable fighter like Overeem.
The lean here is towards Rothwell and the +400 odds to take down Overeem.