UFC Fight Night 61
By Sportsbook.ag
Event: UFC Fight Night 61
Date: Sunday, Feb. 22, 2015
TV/Time: (FS1, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Venue: Ginásio Gigantinho
City: Porto Alegre, Brazil
Heavyweight Bout: Antonio Silva (18-6) vs. Frank Mir (16-9)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Silva -240, Mir +200
Frank Mir gets a chance to redeem himself after four consecutive losses when he takes on the 264-pound Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva at UFC Fight Night 61 in Brazil.
Silva has fought four times in the past two years and has not fared well with his last win coming back in February of 2013 when he won by TKO with a series of brutal punches after being dominated in the early parts of the match. Since then he has lost three straight fights with two coming by way of a knockout punch in the first three minutes of the first round. He has done little in those fights to suggest that his 35-year-old body is able to compete at a high level anymore.
His opponent, Frank Mir, has had an even tougher time of late and has not won since late 2011 (4 fights). It hasn’t even been close in those matches as he has landed a meager 53 significant strikes during the losing streak while his opponents have laid into him to the tune of 206 significant strikes in the same period of time. Twice he was knocked out in those fights, once by punches and once by a knee, and twice he lost by a unanimous decision where he had no chance.
Silva has a worse defense than his opponent and over his career has defended just 52% of strikes aimed at him compared to 37% that Mir deters, but with 13 of his 18 career victories coming from TKO, you know that “Bigfoot” will be going for an early knockout of Mir.
Silva may look to be at a disadvantage when you examine his career stats against his Mir’s, but it is frequently referenced that he has intangible parts of his game that allow him to continue fighting when he is seemingly down. This was evident in his last win, as he took a barrage of punches to the body, but concentrated on Alistair Overeem’s head, landing 85% of his significant strikes there and eventually got in the right series of punches to take down the 6’4” heavyweight.
Silva will need to use his 80” reach to keep his distance from Mir in this one as he looks for a TKO in the early parts of the fight. If he is unable to get it early he will need to let Mir tire himself out and go for a combo of punches in one of the later rounds.
Mir has recently expressed his gratitude towards the UFC for letting him even fight in this one after four straight matches where he was absolutely dominated. Mir typically goes for the takedown, averaging 2.23 per fight over his career as he’s parlayed that into a submission win in nine of his 16 victories. Unfortunately, he typically takes a beating, absorbing 4.01 significant strikes per minute and will in all likelihood lose any match that goes the full time limit.
In his last bout, he took on the aforementioned Overeem and was also dominated like his opponent, but did not have the power to get a knockout or submission in the loss. He landed just three significant strikes out of 23 hits (13%) as he failed to get Overeem’s head once. Mir will likely take some blows in this one but will need to protect his head and look to get a win by submission at some point in the middle rounds. If he doesn’t do that, expect him to be knocked out or lose by unanimous decision.
Other UFC Fight Night 61 Bouts
Lightweight Bout:
Edson Barboza -160
Michael Johnson +130
Middleweight Bout:
Cezar Ferreira -340
Sam Alvey +260
Lightweight Bout:
Rustam Khabilov -425
Adriano Martins +315
Bantamweight Bout:
Iuri Alcântara -550
Frankie Saenz +400
Welterweight Bout:
Santiago Ponzinibbio +145
Sean Strickland -175
Women's Bantamweight Bout:
Jéssica Andrade -250
Marion Reneau +200
Welterweight Bout:
William Macário -300
Matt Dwyer +235
Featherweight Bout:
Tiago Trator -200
Mike de la Torre +165
Welterweight Bout:
Wendell Oliveira -125
TJ Waldburger -105
Bantamweight Bout:
Douglas Silva de Andrade +190
Cody Gibson -235
Lightweight Bout:
Ivan Jorge -245
Josh Shockley +197
UFC Fight Night Odds and Picks
By: Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS -- UFC Fight Night comes to us Sunday (prelims 6 p.m. ET, main event 8 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1) from Porto Alegre, Brazil, with a heavyweight bout between 8th-ranked Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva and 13th-ranked Frank Mir. Silva is about a -300 favorite to win this fight in his homeland, with Mir getting about +240 odds as the underdog.
Silva (18-4) hasn't won a fight in over two years, and his last loss, in September 2014, was a first-round KO to veteran Andrei Arlovski in one of the poorest outings of his career. Before that, in December 2013, "Bigfoot" was involved in one of the most classic stand-up battles of all time against Mark Hunt in a fight that ended in a draw. Both fighters were in big trouble several times in that fight, but it went to the final bell. In May 2013, Silva fought Cain Velasquez for the heavyweight title, but failed to make an impression, losing a few minutes into the fight.
Silva does have knockout power of his own, with KO wins over tough opponents like Travis Browne and Alistair Overeem. Silva would like to keep this fight against Mir standing and avoid his opponent's tremendous ground game.
Mir (16-9) has had a tough time in the world rankings, sliding down the list continuously because of his lack of wins. He's lost four straight fights, and his last win was in 2011 via a perfect kimura submission against Antonio Nogueira, snapping his opponent's arm in the process.
Since that win, losses to Junior dos Santos, Daniel Cormier, Josh Barnett and a bad loss to Overeem have left Frank really needing a win Sunday night to keep himself relevant in the heavyweight division.
The Linemakers' lean: This fight is a lot closer than the betting line indicates and either fighter could get his hand raised, so getting odds of +240 or higher represents real value. Take Frank Mir to post a mild upset in Sunday night's main event over "Bigfoot" Silva in an evenly-matched fight between two 35-year-old veterans.
Undercard
On the undercard, odds on a a couple fights also represent good betting value.
A lightweight contest between Rustam Khabilov (17-2) and Adriano Martins (26-7) opens the night. Khabilov opened as a 2-to-1 favorite, and early money moved him to -450 or higher in some spots.
When significant early money shows for the favorite on the undercard fights, oddsmakers tend to overreact, leaving value on the underdog for those willing to play against the "sharp" money. While significant early money should always be taken seriously when handicapping fights further down the card, this is MMA -- not boxing -- and there are a lot of ways to win, meaning better chances for upsets.
A similar situation exists in a bantamweight fight between favorite Iuri Alcantara (31-5) and underdog Frankie Saenz (9-2). This fight opened with Alcantara about -300, but early money has driven this price up over -600 in most spots.
The Linemakers' lean: UFC always tries to make competitive fights, which gives you another reason to have confidence when betting on an underdog. We're taking both of these underdogs -- Martins and Saenz -- with the inflated prices on the undercard.
Very impressive main event bout being showcased by this veteran heavyweight. I won't get into details on who won with respect to the people who wasn't able to watch it live but all I can say is that it is indeed a show of brute force backed up by an excellent MMA experience. Looking forward to see him in the octagon for more..