UFC Fight Night 63 Preview
By Sportsbook.ag
Event: UFC Fight Night 63
Date: Saturday, Apr. 4, 2015
TV/Time: FS1, 1:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Patriot Center
City: Fairfax, Virginia
Featherweight Bout: Chad Mendes (16-2-0) vs. Ricardo Lamas (15-3-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Mendes -500 Lamas +375
Chad “Money” Mendes looks to shake off another failed attempt at grabbing the featherweight belt when he takes on Ricardo “The Bully” Lamas at UFC Fight Night 63.
Mendes has had no issues beating all of his opponents, besides one, Jose Aldo, who has given him both his losses in title fights. Most recently he took on Aldo in another attempt at the belt and the battle lasted the entire five rounds before Mendes lost by decision in what was a very tight fight; eventually being named the fight of the year. Besides Aldo, Mendes has come away victorious in his other 16 fights, getting most of his wins by decision (8), grabbing another six by knockout and also has two by submission. He has leaned more towards the knockout lately, with punches being the end of his opponent in four of his past five wins; doing so in the first round three times.
Lamas should be a strong competitor in this one as the former wrestler and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighter has won in six of his past seven times in the octagon with the only loss coming at the hands of Jose Aldo. The loss to Aldo was for the featherweight title back in February of last year and since then he has fought twice, earning two victories, one by unanimous decision and most recently by submission (guillotine choke) against Dennis Bermudez at UFC 180. The recent submission was his fourth win by that approach as he primarily has won in a decision (7) and also owns four career knockouts.
Mendes has been borderline dominant in his career if it weren’t for Aldo giving him the two losses in title fights and he lands 2.54 significant strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 47%. He is a master of the takedown, though, getting 4.18 every 15 minutes and had seven in his last win over Nik Lentz. “Money” actually landed a better percentage of his significant strikes when he fought Aldo back in October, but just took on a barrage of hits, getting 80 blows to the head compared to the 50 that he dished out.
Where Mendes typically wins fights is with defense as he deflects 70% of significant strikes attempted by his opponent and parlays that into his signature takedowns. He also does not allow the opposition to put him on the mat as no fighter he has faced has successfully completed a takedown against him. Mendes will certainly have the advantage in this aspect and will just need to keep putting Lamas on the ground until he can finish him off.
Lamas is a similar offensive fighter to his opponent in this one as he lands 2.31 significant strikes per minute on a much lower accuracy (39%). He also struggles with the takedowns compared to Mendes and gets opponents on the mat an average of 1.72 times per 15 minutes in the octagon. One advantage that could certainly work out for him if the cards fall into place is his ability to get a submission as he has won via this tactic twice in the past six fights and has averaged 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
What may prove to be his demise is his defense, and while he still is able to deflect 61% of significant strikes, he only manages to defend against the takedown 48% of the time, and against a fighter like Mendes, he will need to do this a ton in a five-round match if it goes the distance. This will be a tough matchup for Lamas to win given that he has a disadvantage in nearly every aspect of the fight, but if he can somehow become the first person to get Mendes on the mat, it could be an upset win.
Sportsbook.ag Odds - Other UFC Fight Night 63 Bouts
Middleweight Bout
Justin Jones -145
Ron Stallings +115
Heavyweight Bout
Shamil Abdurahimov -285
Timothy Johnson +220
Lightweight Bout
Alexander Yakovlev -145
Gray Maynard +115
Womens Bantamweight Bout
Liz Carmouche -125
Lauren Murphy -105
Lightweight Bout
Dustin Poirier -195
Carlos Diego Ferreira +160
Featherweight Bout
Clay Guida -275
Robbie Peralta +215
Womens Bantamweight
Julianna Pena -300
Milana Dudieva +235
Lightweight Bout
Michael Chiesa -350
Mitch Clarke +270
Lightweight Bout
Jorge Masvidal -130
Al Iaquinta --Even
UFC Odds and Picks
By Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS -- UFC Fight Night comes to us Saturday from Fairfax, Virginia (6 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1) with an important fight in the featherweight division between No. 1 contender Chad "Money" Mendes and 4th-ranked Ricardo Lamas. Mendes, whose only career losses have been to current featherweight champion José Aldo, is a -450 favorite, with Lamas getting odds of about +325 as the underdog.
In his most recent fight in October, Mendes (17-2) came up short in a title match against Aldo, but he did well in most rounds. He even floored the champ in the first round in what garnered Fight of the Night honors.
Mendes hails from the always-loaded Team Alpha Male camp, which is on quite a roll right now, and sometimes that kind of momentum carries over from fighter to fighter. Team Alpha Male also features current bantamweight champion T.J. Dillashaw and Urijah Faber.
"Money," who has a tremendous wrestling base, has also developed a solid striking game, making him a difficult opponent to train for.
Lamas (15-3) will probably try to make this a striking match, avoiding Mendes' superior wrestling and ground game.
The Linemakers' lean: The lean here is based strictly on value. Despite the feeling Mendes should win this fight, it seems way too close to lay a price as high as -450 and maybe -500. Lately, the dogs have done well in the UFC, and this line just appears too high for these fighters. The rounds could be hard to score if this turns into a grappling contest. Make a small play on Lamas at the generous price of +325 or maybe higher by Saturday.
Undercard
The undercard features a women's bantamweight fight between 9th-ranked Liz Carmouche and Lauren Murphy. Carmouche is surprisingly only a slight -120 favorite, with Murphy getting even-money as the underdog.
Carmouche (9-5) has lost three of her last four fights, but those were to the highest-level fighters in the division, including Ronda Rousey. Carmouche actually had Rousey in trouble, securing her back and locking in a standing rear naked choke. Rousey escaped, and then finished Carmouche in that same first round, but it marked the only time Rousey has ever been in trouble in a fight.
Murphy (8-1) has only one loss on her record, in a split-decision in her first UFC fight to Sara McMann.
The Linemakers' lean: Murphy might be giving away too much experience to Carmouche in this fight. The price to lay the favorite seems very reasonable in this spot. Take Liz Carmouche and lay the small -120 over Lauren Murphy.
Also on the undercard, Clay "The Carpenter" Guida takes on Robbie Peralta in a featherweight bout. Guida (31-15) has provided UFC fans with some of the most entertaining fights of all time and is only a -250 favorite to get back in the win column. Despite losing four of his last six fights, "The Carpenter" always comes ready and usually dominates lesser competition.
Even in his losses to top level fighters, Guida almost always gives a good account of himself. Guida comes into this fight off a first-round loss to Thiago Tavares. Look for Guida's relentless pressure to be too much for Peralta (18-5).
The Linemakers lean: Laying -250 is reasonable here, as Guida has the edge in every facet of the fight. Take Clay Guida at -250 to get the win here over Robbie Peralta