Almeida, Garbrandt clash
By Sportsbook.ag
Thomas Almeida (20-0-0) vs. Cody Garbrandt (8-0-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Almeida -155, Garbrandt +135
Undefeated bantamweights Thomas Almeida and Cody Garbrandt meet in Las Vegas at UFC Fight Night 88.
Thomas Almeida is just 24 years of age, but he has already racked up an impressive MMA record of 20 wins with zero defeats.
The Brazilian won all of his first fifteen bouts in the first round, and although he has not continued that remarkable streak against better competition, he is still without a blemish on his record.
Cody Garbrandt is also undefeated with eight victories and no defeats, seven of which have come via knockout or TKO. This will be the American’s toughest test to date, and he is a slight underdog heading into the matchup.
Almeida lands an incredible 6.82 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 50.13 percent. He does absorb a high 4.59 significant strikes per minute as a result of his fighting style, but he has a solid defense rate of 65.73 percent.
The Brazilian has yet to attempt a takedown or submission in his MMA career, but he does defend takedowns at an 83.33 percent clip.
Garbrandt averages 3.63 significant strikes per minute, but his accuracy is low at 37.24 percent. He absorbs 2.61 such strikes per minute with a defense rate of 67.75 percent.
The Ohio native averages 1.76 takedown attempts per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 44.44 percent, and he has yet to have a takedown attempt to defend or have a submission attempt of his own.
UFC Fight Night 88 Bouts & Odds
Featherweight Bout:
Renan Barão -185
Jeremy Stephens +165
Welterweight Bout:
Tarec Saffiedine -125
Rick Story +105
Middleweight Bout:
Chris Camozzi +190
Vitor Miranda -220
Welterweight Bout:
Jorge Masvidal +115
Lorenz Larkin -135
Lightweight Bout:
Josh Burkman +250
Paul Felder -300
Women's Bantamweight Bout:
Sara McMann -145
Jessica Eye +125
Lightweight Bout:
Abel Trujillo -280
Jordan Rinaldi +240
Middleweight Bout:
Jake Collier +115
Alberto Uda -135
Lightweight Bout:
Erik Koch +150
Shane Campbell -170
Bantamweight Bout:
Aljamain Sterling -420
Bryan Caraway +350
Heavyweight Bout:
Chris De La Rocha +200
Adam Milstead -240
UFC Fight Night 88
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
The MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas will host UFC Fight Night 88, a 12-fight card Sunday night headlined by a pair of unbeaten 24-year-old bantamweights on the rise. Thomas Almeida, the No. 7 ranked 135-pounder, will take on unranked Cody ‘No Love’ Garbrandt in a five-round scrap to cap the holiday show on Fox Sports 1.
The four-fight set of prelims will get started at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. The main card has six fights, including Renan Barao vs. Jeremy Stephens in the former bantamweight champion’s featherweight debut. There are a pair of bouts on Fight Pass, including a key bantamweight showdown between fourth-ranked Aljamain Sterling and eighth-ranked Bryan Caraway.
We’re going to go way out on a limb here and say that this will be the first of several meetings between Almeida and Garbrandt, who told ESPN.com’s Brett Okamoto that while walking alone at Mandalay Bay on Thursday he almost got into it with Almeida and members of his team before security stepped in to separate him from his opponent’s group.
As of Saturday afternoon, most books had Almeida (21-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC) listed as a -165 favorite with Garbrandt as the +145 underdog. The total is 1.5 rounds (-155 ‘over,’ +135 ‘under’). If you like the fight to go the distance, a nice +350 payout can be had in a proposition wagers at 5Dimes. Garbrandt (8-0 MMA, 3-0 UFC) is a wrestler who won a state title in Ohio as a freshman in high school. At the age of 15, he began training in boxing with his uncle, who was an Olympian alternate in the sport. Garbrandt joined Team Alpha Male out of Sacramento in 2012.
After winning his first five professional fights on regional circuits in Ohio and the Pittsburgh area, Garbrandt made his promotional debut at UFC 182 on Jan. 3 of last year. He scored a victory over Marcus Brimmage by third-round knockout.
Garbrandt was back in the Octagon at UFC 189 last July, earning a unanimous-decision win over Henry Briones with 30-27 scores from the judges. In his last outing at UFC Pittsburgh in February, Garbrandt finished Augusto Mendes with a first-round KO.
Almeida fights out of Chute Box Academy in Sao Paulo, Brazil. He has a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a black belt in Muay Thai. Almeida won the bantamweight title in the MMASH and Legacy FC promotions before signing with the UFC.
He made his Octagon debut on Nov. 8 of 2014 by earning Fight of the Night honors with a UD win over Tim Gorman. Next, Almeida captured a first-round KO win over Yves Jabouin at UFC 186, garnering a Performance of the Night bonus in the process. His next two wins – a flying-knee KO over Brad Pickett at UFC 189 and a one-punch first-round KO vs. Anthony Birchak in Sao Paulo this past November – provided him with Performance of the Night bonuses as well. Therefore, he’s 4-for-4 in the Fight-Night-Bonuses Dept.
Prediction: I like Garbrandt for three units at +145. Also, give me 1.5 units on ‘under 1.5 rounds for a +135 return. Both fighters are dynamic strikers with excellent power. In other words, I could see either men scoring a spectacular finish, though I believe Garbrandt has the better chin. This should be a great fight. If you’re going to be out partying for the holidays, make sure you hit the DVR for the event (and the ensuing show on FS1 because you don’t want to get hosed like I did for Frankie Edgar vs. Urijah Faber because the headliner ran past the scheduled end time).
In the co-main event, Stephens (24-12 MMA, 11-11 UFC) is poised to welcome Barao into the 145-pound loop when he makes his 23rd career walk to the Octagon. The 30-year-old Stephens has lost three of his last four fights, dropping unanimous decisions to Cub Swanson, Charles Oliveira and Max Holloway. He beat Dennis Bermudez by scoring a third-round KO win with a flying knee and subsequent punches at UFC 189.
Stephens owns a 4-3 record since going down to 145 after competing at lightweight for the first 15 fights of his UFC tenure. The best win of Stephens’ career came at UFC 91 where he earned KO of the Night honors with his third-round finish of current 155-pound champ Rafael dos Anjos. He also owns notable scalps over Cole Miller, Sam Stout, Marcus Davis and Darren Elkins.
Eight of Stephens’s 12 defeats have come by decisions, including split-decision setbacks against Melvin Guillard and former lightweight kingpin Anthony ‘Showtime’ Pettis. He has only been knocked out once (Yves Edwards) and he’s been submitted on three occasions.
Barao (33-3-1 MMA, 8-2 UFC) is returning to the cage for the first time in more than 10 months. The 29-year-old Brazilian was once considered by some to be the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. However, he has come upon hard times the last two years. First, Barao lost his bantamweight strap when T.J. Dillashaw dominated him the entire way before finishing him by KO at UFC 173. Then Barao missed weight for the immediate rematch that had been scheduled. He bounced back by bagging a Performance of the Night bonus with his third-round KO win over Mitch Gagnon in December of 2014. This victory earned him another shot at Dillashaw at UFC on Fox in Chicago last summer. Unfortunately for the Brazilian, nothing had changed between the two fighters. Dillashaw dominated Barao again before getting another finish by KO early in the fourth round.
Before running into Dillashaw, Barao won his first seven UFC fights and went more than 10 years without a loss. He raced out to a 7-0 record in the UFC, winning the interim bantamweight strap vacated by then-injured Dominick Cruz with a UF win over Faber at UFC 149. Barao defended his belt with a fourth-round submission win over Michael McDonald in February of 2013.
He successfully defended the belt twice more with TKO wins over Eddie Wineland and Faber for a second time, only to run into his nemesis in Dillashaw next.
Just before the weigh-ins on Friday, most books had Barao installed as a -190 favorite. Stephens was +160 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $160). The total is 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -125, ‘under’ +105).
Prediction: I’m tempted to go with a really small one-half unit play on Stephens and a I might do so if the underdog odds get a little better on Saturday (I’d say +180 is my buy price). Stephens has a great chin and no fighter not named T.J. has finished Barao in the last decade and change. Therefore, I’ll go with one unit on the ‘over’ (2.5 rounds at -125 price).
The rest of the main card looks like this:
Rick Story (-115) vs. Tarec Saffiedine (-115)
Vitor Miranda -175 vs. Chris Camozzi (+155)
Lorenz Larkin (-125) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+105)
Paul Felder (-310) vs. Josh Burkman (+255)
MORE PLAYS:
I’ll go with Lorenz Larkin at -125 over Masvidal for two units. Also, give me one unit on Sterling-Caraway ‘under’ 2.5 rounds (+158 at 5Dimes).
B.E.’s Octagon Nuggets
Sterling has nine finishes in his 13 career MMA fights.
Larkin owns a 2-1 UFC record since dropping down from middleweight to 170. His only loss was a split-decision defeat to Albert Tumenov. Meanwhile, Masvidal is 1-1 at welterweight since moving up from 155 pounds. I think Larkin’s size advantage will be the key.
B.J. Penn has been yanked off of the UFC 199 card after being flagged for a potential doping violation. Penn admitted to USADA officials that he used an IV that is now banned, but wasn’t banned when he last fought in 2014. Penn, who is 0-3-1 in his last four fights and hasn’t won since knocking out Matt Hughes at UFC 123 in November of 2010, had been training at Jackson-Wink MMA in Albuquerque. He was originally scheduled to fight Dennis Siver until the German kickboxer pulled out due to an injury. Siver was replaced by veteran Cole Miller, who will now take on ‘Bruce Leeroy.’
Stipe Miocic will defend his heavyweight title for the first time when he takes on Alistair Overeem at UFC 203 at Quicken Loans Arena. This will be the UFC’s debut in Miocic’s hometown of Cleveland. 5Dimes opened Miocic as a -170 ‘chalk,’ leaving Overeem at +140 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $140). The number has dropped to -165 with ‘The Reem’ now at +135. The total is 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -140, ‘under’ +100).
Matt Brown vs. Jake Ellenberger has been added to the UFC 201 card at Philips Arena in Atlanta. There’s no line out yet, but I like Brown to win this one by KO in the first round or early second. I expect Brown will be favored too heavily to bet on the straight price, but a prop for Brown to win inside the distance and/or ‘under’ 1.5 rounds could present numbers to our liking.