UFC Fight Night 89 Betting News and Notes

UFC Fight Night 89 Preview
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

The Octagon will land at TD Place Arena in Ottawa, Canada, on Saturday night for UFC Fight Night 89. This is a 13-fight card that’ll be headlined by a crucial welterweight contest between Rory MacDonald and Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson. The winner will most likely get a title shot against the winner of the UFC 201 main event between current champ Robbie Lawler and third-ranked Tyron Woodley.

As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had the main event as a pick ‘em (bet either fighter at a -110 price) with a total of 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -170, ‘under’ +150).

MacDonald (18-3 MMA, 9-3 UFC) is returning to the cage for the first time since waging the 2015 Fight of the Year with Robbie Lawler at UFC 189. Without a doubt, it was one of the top-five fights in the history of mixed martial arts. It featured everything – will, heart, skill, toughness, grit and determination – from both fighters.

Lawler broke MacDonald’s nose late in the first round, leaving it leaking like a sieve for the rest of the fight. MacDonald fought through it, however, and nearly finished Lawler in Round 3 after landing a headkick and subsequent punches that had Lawler staggering against the cage.

Going in the fifth and final round, MacDonald led 3-1 on all three judges’ scorecards. Nobody knew that at the time, though. Both men looked like they had already gone 15 rounds. Lawler had a grotesque cut at the top of his lip and both fighters’ shorts were drenched with each others’ blood.

One minute into the stanza, Lawler landed a straight left to MacDonald’s broken nose. The ‘Red King’ seemed to initially absorb the punch ok, only to have his entire body give out a moment later as he fell backward to the canvas to end the fight.

Prior to the bloodbath in his second fight against Lawler, MacDonald had won three in a row to earn his title shot. The 26-year-old Canadian knocked off Demian Maia by unanimous decision in a Fight of the Night at UFC 170. He routed Woodley by UD at UFC 174 and then knocked out Tarec Saffiedine in the third round at UFC Fight Night 54 to win a Performance of the Night bonus.

MacDonald lost a split decision to Lawler at UFC 167 before his three-fight winning streak. Prior to the first setback against Lawler, he rolled off fight consecutive victories over Nate Diaz, Mike Pyle, Che Mills, B.J. Penn and Jake Ellenberger.

His only other career loss to someone not named Lawler came against Carlos Condit, who scored a third-round KO over MacDonald with only seven seconds remaining in the fight. MacDonald had dominated the bout and was on his way to a decision victory before getting hurt and finished in the final minute.

Thompson (12-1 MMA, 7-1 UFC) is riding a six-fight winning streak that has propelled him to the No. 2 ranking in the 170-pound loop. The Greenville, South Carolina, native might be the most dynamic striker on the entire UFC roster.

Thompson comes from a kickboxing and karate background. His kicks come from all angles and he has no hesitation to go for KO kicks or punches. He has spent time at Tristar Gym helping Georges St. Pierre train for fights in the past. This is where MacDonald has trained for years, so they have sparred together. But to imply that they were ever teammates would be a stretch.

After winning his first five MMA fights for regional promotions in the South, Wonderboy made his Octagon debut at UFC 143 in Las Vegas. He earned KO of the Night honors by beating Dan Stittgen with a head kick in the opening round.

In Thompson’s second fight at UFC 145 at Philips Arena in Atlanta, his inferior wrestling was exposed as Matt Brown dominated en route to a UD (30-27 twice, 29-27 once). Since then, however, Thompson hasn’t tasted defeat.

Following wins over Nah-Shon Burrell (UD) and Chris Clements (second-round KO), Thompson scored a first-round KO over Robert Whittaker to earn a Performance of the Night bonus at UFC 170. We should note that Whittaker has won five straight fights, including the last four in the middleweight division, since falling to Thompson.

Thompson added a UD win over Patrick Cote at UFC 178 and then bagged another Performance of the Night bonus with a spinning-hook-kick KO win over Jake Ellenberger in the first round. Then in February, Thompson took on former welterweight kingpin Johny Hendricks, who had never been finished in 20 previous career fights. Hendricks’s only prior defeats (three of them) had come by decision, including a pair of split decisions.

But as a +240 underdog, Thompson was in control from the get-go. He had Hendricks all out of sorts by aggressively pressing the action with all sorts of creative kicks. With Hendricks worried about the kicks, Thompson landed a combination to floor Hendricks and more punches led to a stoppage at the 3:31 mark of Round 1.

The ‘under’ is 4-1 in Wonderboy’s last five fights, which has included three first-round KOs. The ‘over’ has hit in six of MacDonald’s last seven bouts.

This is the last fight on MacDonald’s contract. He admitted earlier in the week that “millions” are on the line for him in terms of his future earnings.

Prediction: In a pre-Lawler-MacDonald II world, this would be an automatic play for me on MacDonald. However, I’m always hesitant to back a fighter coming off such a violent loss. Yes, MacDonald has had 11 months off, which is the longest break of his career. And yes, I think the fact that he’s sparred with Thompson is advantageous to him because of Wonderboy’s unique style. MacDonald brought in world-class kickboxer Raymond Daniels to help prep for Thompson. But I just can’t support MacDonald here due to the beating he’s coming off of and the hot streak that Thompson is on. Remember, Thompson compiled a 57-0 career record in pro and amateur kickboxing events before beginning his MMA career with a 12-1 mark. That’s a lot of fights with only one defeat. I slightly lean to Thompson and might take him if the number gets adjusted and I can get him at plus odds. But I like the chance to get nice plus money with the ‘under.’ Therefore, I’m on ‘under’ 2.5 rounds for the +150 payout for two units.

In the co-main event, Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone will take on Patrick Cote in a welterweight showdown. Cerrone (29-7, 1 NC MMA, 16-4 UFC) will be fighting at 170 for the second straight time after submitting Alex Oliveira in his welterweight debut at UFC Pittsburgh this past February.

The Budweiser-Loving Cerrone took an eight-fight winning streak into UFC Orlando this past December for a shot at Rafael dos Anjos’s lightweight strap. RDA needed only 66 seconds to finish Cowboy with a body kick and punches.

With two losses to Dos Anjos on his resume, Cerrone realized he wasn’t going to be in the title mix at 155 pounds as long as RDA remained champ. Therefore, he agreed to face Tim Means at welterweight in the Steel City. Means was forced out of the bout due to a USADA violation, prompting Oliveira to take the fight on short notice.

Cerrone doesn’t consider himself at 170 to stay. He’s just going on a fight-to-fight basis at this point. Cowboy owns notable career wins over the likes of Jamie Varner, Charles Oliveira, Dennis Siver, Jeremy Stephens, Melvin Guillard, Evan Dunham, Edson Barboza, Jim Miller, Eddie Alvarez, Myles Jury, Benson Henderson and John Makdessi.

Cerrone has collected 11 fight-night bonuses in 20 career UFC appearances. In his last eight World Extreme Cagefighting bouts, he participated in the Fight of the Night five times.

Cote (23-9 MMA, 10-9 UFC) will enjoy a size advantage in this contest. The Canadian owns a 5-1 record since dropping down to 170 from middleweight. He is 6-1 in his last seven fights with the only loss coming by decision against Wonderboy.

The 36-year-old Canadian made his Octagon debut as a light heavyweight at UFC 50, going the distance with UFC Hall of Famer and former 205-pound kingpin Tito Ortiz before losing a UD. Cote won five fights in a row in 2007 and ’08, including KO of the Night wins over Kendall Grove and Drew McFedries, to earn at shot at Anderson Silva’s middleweight strap at UFC 90.

Many felt Cote was extremely competitive in the first two rounds, but he blew out his knee 39 seconds into the third round to bring the fight to an end. He was out for more than 18 months before returning at UFC 113, where he lost by second-round decision to Alan Belcher. After dropping a UD to Tom Lawlor at UFC 121, the promotion cut Cote.

He promptly responded with a four-fight winning streak in smaller promotions and was brought back to face Cung Le at UFC 148 in July of 2012. Cote lost to Le by UD but has gone 6-1 his last seven times out. He has thrived at 170 with victories over Bobby Voelker, Kyle Noke, Joe Riggs, Josh Burkman and Ben Saunders. He scored KO wins over Burkman and Saunders in his last two fights.

As of Friday afternoon, most spots had Cerrone installed as a -165 ‘chalk’ with Cote at +140 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $140). The total is 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -130, ‘under’ +110).

Prediction: Cowboy presents all sorts of problems for every opponent. His cardio is endless, his kicks are nasty and his submission skills are slick. He’s had trouble dealing with body shots, however. Examples include his KO defeats against Anthony Pettis and most recently, RDA. I believe Cote’s size and power are going to present issues. With that said, I don’t fade Cowboy Cerrone – ever. I’ll go with one unit on ‘under’ 2.5 rounds for the +110 return.

In a light-heavyweight matchup, Steve Bosse will face Sean O’Connell. Most spots had Bosse as a -135 favorite late Friday afternoon. That’s down from -160, where the number has been for most of the week. O’Connell is a short +115 underdog, while the total is 1.5 rounds (‘under’ -240, ‘over’ +200).

Bosse (11-2 MMA, 1-1 UFC) is off a first-round KO win over James Te Huna in only 52 seconds at UFC FN 85 in March. The 34-year-old Canadian lost by a head-kick KO to Thiago Santos in only 29 seconds in his UFC debut last June. Nine of his 11 career wins have come by KO, with one win apiece by submission and decision. Ten of his 13 career fights have ended in Round 1, hence the expensive odds to take the ‘under.’

O’Connell (17-7 MMA, 2-3 UFC) lost by KO to Ilir Latifi in just 29 seconds at UFC Boston on Jan. 17. Prior to that defeat, he won back-to-back contests over Anthony Perosh by first-round KO and Matt Van Buren by third-round KO. His fight with Van Buren earned Fight of the Night honors, as did his split-decision loss to Gian Villante in June of 2014.

Prediction: I’ll go with Bosse for one unit at the -135 price.

Two other fights are on the main card: Olivier Aubin-Mercier (-400) vs. Thibault Gouti (+325) and Valerie Letourneau (-170) vs. Joanne Calderwood (+150). I don’t have a play on either.

My final plays are for the Fight Pass headliner between ‘Smilin’ Sam Alvey and Elias Theodorou. Alvey has won three of his last four fights, including three wins by first-round KO. He is in bounce-back mode after losing by first-round KO to Derek Brunson last August. I like Alvey as a +240 ‘dog for one unit and I also like one unit on ‘under’ 2.5 rounds for a sweet +175 return.

B.E.’s Octagon Nuggets

Alexander ‘The Mauler’ Gustafsson will return to the cage at UFC Hamburg on Sept. 3 to face Jan Blachowicz. The Swedish light heavyweight will be an expensive ‘chalk’ in that spot.

On FS1’s Jay and Dan Show last night, middleweight champ Michael Bisping said Georges St. Pierre’s camp has reached out to him expressing an interest in taking on ‘The Count’ for his 185-pound strap.

Former lightweight champ Anthony ‘Showtime’ Pettis is dropping down to 145 pounds and will face Charles ‘Do Bronx’ Oliveira at UFC Vancouver on Aug. 27. Since defending his lightweight strap with a second-round submission win over Gilbert Melendez, Pettis has lost three in a row. RDA took his belt with a blowout decision win and since then, Pettis has dropped decisions to Alvarez and Barboza.

Jason Floyd of The MMA Report told me earlier this week that there won’t be a 13th fight added to the UFC 200 card. Therefore, barring injuries, the 12-fight show is all set. There had been speculation that Anderson Silva might face Uriah Hall at T-Mobile Center on July 9. The two middleweights were scheduled to scrap at UFC 198 in Brazil, but Silva had to pull out the week of the fight to have his gallbladder removed.