Rafael dos Anjos ready to go
By Sportsbook.ag
Rafael dos Anjos (24-7-0) vs. Eddie Alvarez (27-4-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line: dos Anjos -400, Alvarez +300
Rafael dos Anjos defends his lightweight belt against Eddie Alvarez at UFC Fight Night 90.
Rafael dos Anjos is the current UFC Lightweight Champion, having won the title against Anthony Pettis in March 2015 and successfully defended it against Donald Cerrone in December of the same year.
Overall, the Brazilian has won five straight fights, with three Performance of the Night awards in that stretch. Unlike many other fighters, dos Anjos has competed many times in recent years, and he should be prepared to defend his belt once again.
Eddie Alvarez is himself a decorated fighter, and is a two-time Bellator Lightweight Champion. He has proven to be capable against the top fighters, and he defeated Anthony Pettis in his most recent outing via split decision. The Philadelphia native will be the underdog against dos Anjos, but a win is not out of the question.
Dos Anjos lands 3.06 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 41.14 percent. He absorbs 2.37 such strikes per minute and defends them at a 69.39 percent clip.
The 31-year-old averages 2.64 takedown attempts per 15 minutes at a 44.83 percent rate, and successfully defends takedowns 66.04 percent of the time. Throughout his career, dos Anjos has averaged 0.81 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
Alvarez has similar striking statistics to those of his opponent, landing 3.27 significant strikes per minute at a 41.72 percent clip. He does absorbs more significant strikes per minute than does dos Anjos at 3.22 per minute, and he has a mediocre defense rate of 58.28 percent.
The 32-year-old averages an impressive 3.90 takedown attempts per 15 minutes at an accuracy of 41.51 percent. He also defends takedowns at a high rate of 91.67 percent, and averages 0.53 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
Other UFC Fight Night 90 Bouts & Odds
Heayweight Bout
Roy Nelson -145
Derrick Lewis +115
UFC Fight Night 90
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Eddie Alvarez will challenge Rafael dos Anjos for the Brazilian’s lightweight championship in the headliner of UFC Fight Night 90 at MGM Grand Garden Arena on Thursday, July 7. This 12-fight card can be seen on UFC Fight Pass only.
As of Wednesday, most betting shops had Dos Anjos (25-7 MMA, 14-5 UFC) listed as a -350 favorite, leaving Alvarez at +285 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $285). The total was 3.5 rounds (‘under’ -135, ‘over’ +115).
RDA made his Octagon debut at UFC 91 in November of 2008, getting knocked out by Jeremy Stephens 39 seconds into the third round. Dos Anjos fell to 0-2 in the UFC when he dropped a unanimous decision to Tyson Griffin in a Fight of the Night performance.
Dos Anjos bounced back, however, with three straight victories over Rob Emerson, Kyle Bradley and Terry Etim, garnering Submission of the Night honors with his armbar of Etim at UFC 112. In his next outing against Clay Guida, RDA was forced to tap due to a broken jaw 1:51 into the third stanza.
The injury would keep RDA out of the cage for nearly 11 months, but he returned with authority. George Sotiropoulous was riding an 11-2 run, including a 7-1 mark inside the UFC, going into his UFC 132 showdown with Dos Anjos.
RDA made quick work of the Aussie, scoring a first-round knockout in only 59 seconds. Then in November of 2011 at UFC 139 in San Jose, Dos Anjos came out on the wrong end of a split-decision defeat to Gleison Tibau.
Since the setback against Tibau, Dos Anjos has put together a pair of five-fight winning streaks. The only hiccup in between came in a unanimous-decision loss to still-unbeaten Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC on FOX 11 in April of 2014. During his 10-1 roll, RDA has posted victories over the likes of Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone, Evan Dunham, former lightweight champ Benson Henderson and Nate Diaz.
The win over Diaz earned Dos Anjos a shot at the 155-pound strap against Anthony ‘Showtime’ Pettis at UFC 185. RDA was a huge +375 underdog, yet he took it to Pettis for 25 minutes. From start to finish, Dos Anjos was dominant in all phases en route to a UD win by three scores of 50-45 from the judges.
In his first title defense at UFC Orlando last December, RDA brought a rapid halt to Cerrone’s eight-fight winning streak by finishing him in 66 seconds. A thunderous body kick hurt Cerrone early and Dos Anjos pounced on him. As Cerrone attempted to recover, RDA would have none of it, launching a violent assault of punches and kicks that sent his opponent down and out.
Alvarez (27-4 MMA, 2-1 UFC) is the former two-time Bellator lightweight champ and also held the welterweight title in a pair of small promotions in 2004 and 2006. The 32-year-old Philadelphia native made his Octagon debut against Cerrone at UFC 178 in September of 2014.
Cerrone captured a unanimous-decision win (29-28 three times) as a short -130 ‘chalk.’ Since then, though, Alvarez has posted back-to-back wins over Gilbert Melendez and Pettis.
He collected a split-decision triumph (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) over Melendez, the former Strikeforce lightweight champ, as a +135 underdog at UFC 188 in Mexico City last June. Then in January at UFC Boston, Alvarez captured another split-decision victory (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) over Pettis as a +280 underdog.
Alvarez has avenged two of his four career losses by beating Michael Chandler and Shinya Aoki in rematches. His only other career loss (besides Cerrone) came against Nick Thompson way back in 2007.
Prediction: Dos Anjos is on a serious roll, but the price seems a bit expensive here. Alvarez is such a grinder, a quality wrestler and grappler who can make this fight an ugly one. I think he’s got a decent chance, so I’ll go one unit on Alvarez for the +285 return.
In the co-main event, Roy ‘Big Country’ Nelson will take on Derrick ‘The Black Beast’ Lewis in a heavyweight scrap. As of Wednesday, most spots had Nelson installed as a -130 ‘chalk,’ with Lewis as the +110 underdog. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘under’ -175, ‘over’ +155).
The 40-year-old Nelson (21-12 MMA, 8-8 UFC) has lost five of his last seven fights, but six of his eight defeats in the Octagon have come against the current (Stipe Miocic) or former UFC heavyweight champions. The other two L’s? Those came against Mark Hunt, who recent fought Fabrico Werdum for the title, and Alistair Overeem, who will take on Miocic for his strap at UFC 203.
We should also note that Hunt is the only fighter who has finished (by second-round KO) Nelson during his 16 UFC appearances. During his 33-fight career, he’s been finished just twice, with the other KO loss coming to another former UFC heavyweight champion (Andrei Arlovski) in the second round of 2008 bout under the EliteXC banner.
Nelson, who won Season 10 of The Ultimate Fighter, owns notable career wins over the likes of Brendan Schaub, Stefan Struve, Mirko Cro Cop, Matt Mitrione, Cheick Kongo and Antonio ‘Big Nog’ Rodrigo Nogueira. All six of those victories came by knockouts with five of them coming in the opening round.
Nelson’s walk-off KO of Big Nog sent the former UFC champ and Brazilian legend into retirement. Nelson has six career fight-night bonuses to his credit, including five KO of the Night honors. He is known of his iron chin and powerful overhand right. Although he doesn’t use it much, he also has an underrated ground game.
Lewis (15-4, 1 NC MMA, 6-2 UFC) is a New Orleans product who has won three consecutive fights, including a first-round KO over Gabriel Gonzaga in April that earned him a Performance of the Night bonus.
The win over Gonzaga was the best of ‘The Black Beast’s career. In his other two spots against top-tier competition, Lewis took KO losses to Mitrione and Shawn Jordan. He owns UFC wins over Damian Grabowski, Viktor Pesta, Ruan Potts, Guto Inocente and Jack May.
Prediction: This one shouldn’t last long. None of Lewis’s eight UFC fights have gone the distance and five of them have ended in the opening stanza. Although Nelson’s skills might be fading a bit and youth (age of 31) is on Lewis’s side, Big Country’s chin and overhand right remain his best assets and those two traits are among the best in the division. I like Nelson at the -130 price for 2.5 units. Also, give me one unit on the prop bet that Round 2 does NOT start (-135 price).
In a welterweight contest, Alan Jouban (13-4 MMA, 4-2 UFC) will take on Belal Muhammad. As of Wednesday, most books had Jouban installed as a -140 favorite, leaving Muhammad at +120 on the comeback. The total is 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -155, ‘under’ +135).
Jouban owns UFC wins over Seth Baczynski, Richard Walsh, Matt Dwyer and Brendan O’Reilly. His two UFC defeats have come against Warley Alves and Albert Tumenov.
Muhammad is unbeaten in nine career fights and is making his UFC debut. He is the former Titan FC welterweight champ.
Prediction: I haven’t seen Muhammad fight, so I have to pass here.
In the opener of the main card, Joe Duffy and Mitch Clarke will collide in a 155-pound strap. As of Wednesday, most betting shops had Duffy (14-2 MMA, 2-1 UFC) installed as a -410 ‘chalk,’ while Clarke is the +330 underdog.
Duffy owns victories by first-round submissions over both Conor McGregor and Norman Parke, but both of those triumphs came in 2010. He beat Jake Lindsey in his Octagon debut at UFC 185 before submitting Ivan Jorge last summer to earn a Performance of the Night bonus. In his last outing, however, Duffy lost a UD to Dustin Poirier.
Clarke (11-3 MMA, 2-3 UFC) lost his first two UFC fights before earning a UD win over John Maguire at UFC 161. Then at UFC 173 last summer, the 30-year-old Canadian bagged a Performance of the Night bonus by submitting Al Iaquinta with a D’Arce choke in Round 2. However, he lost a UD to Michael Chiesa in his last bout last April.
Prediction: I’ll take a shot with Clarke for the monster +330 payout for one-half unit.
I only have one play on the prelims portion of the card. I’ll go one unit on John Makdessi at a -140 price vs. Mehdi Baghdad.
Makdessi is looking to avoid a three-fight losing streak, but there’s no shame in either of his recent setbacks. He lost a split decision to Yancy Medeiros his last time out and prior to that, Makdessi took a fifght with Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone on short notice. He was competitive with Cerrone throughout before getting finished by a head-kick KO late in the second stanza.
Makdessi was 4-1 in his five previous outings before the loss to Cerrone.