UFC Odds and Picks
By: Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS -- UFC Fight Night, Wednesday from Atlantic City (9 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1), brings us a key bout in the lightweight division between sixth-ranked Donald Cerrone and seventh-ranked Jim Miller. Cerrone is a -250 favorite around Las Vegas, with Miller getting about 2-to-1 odds on the takeback.
Cerrone (23-6) has won his last three fights and has fought most of the top fighters in the division. A win here over Miller might just vault him into the title picture in the loaded 155-pound division.
His last fight, probably his most impressive, was a submission win over always-tough Edson Barboza in April. Despite being in trouble early in the first round, Cerrone was able to rally later in the round, knocking Edson down with a perfect jab and then finishing him with a rear-naked choke to earn Performance of the Night honors. In January, the "Cowboy" earned KO of the Night with a beautiful head kick to finish Adriano Martins.
Also on his resume are some nice wins over top guys like Jamie Varner (September 2010), Dennis Siver (October 2011) and Evan Dunham (November 2013), to mention just a few. He's also shown well in losses to top fighters like Nate Diaz (December 2011) and Benson Henderson (April 2010).
Cerrone has always been a popular fighter with fans with his come-forward and aggressive style, which usually makes for exciting fights.
Miller (24-4), meanwhile, has long been one of the toughest customers in the lightweight division. He is on a little two-fight win streak of his own and can make a jump up in the division with a win here. Losses to Diaz (May 2012), Henderson (August 2011) and Gray Maynard (May 2009) have stopped Miller in the past from making a big move in the loaded division.
This should be an action-packed fight with two guys who both come forward and bring the action. Cerrone figures to want to keep this fight standing, as he has the edge in striking; if it becomes a wrestling match, the edge goes to Miller.
Miller also has something of a home-court advantage, as the fight is being contested in his home state of New Jersey, which certainly can’t hurt if it goes to the cards.
The Linemakers’ lean: I make this fight pretty even with only a slight edge to the "Cowboy," but not enough to merit laying -250. I'm going to take a shot with Miller and the fairly nice price of 2-to-1 to pull off a minor upset and get the win Wednesday night.