UFC Odds and Picks
By: Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS – UFC Fight Night comes to us Saturday from Tokyo, Japan with an entertaining fight in the heavyweight division between two hard-hitting veterans in 6th ranked Mark "Super Samoan" Hunt and No. 8 Roy "Big Country" Nelson (UFC Fight Pass, 3 a.m. ET). Hunt is a -145 favorite, with Nelson getting +125 odds as the underdog. This fight has all the makings of a classic stand-up brawl, as both guys love to throw big punches with bad intentions.
Hunt's record of 9-8-1 doesn't necessarily tell his story. He's much better than a .500 fighter, as he has only one loss in his last six fights since starting his career 5-7. His only loss in that stretch was a third-round knockout at the hands, or should I say feet, of Junior dos Santos, as Hunt was finished with a beautiful spinning kick.
Nelson (20-9) also has a loss to dos Santos, but he too gave a good account of himself in that fight, taking Junior to a decision.
The Super Samoan's last fight was an absolute classic five-round war against Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva in what is considered to be one of the greatest fights in UFC history. In that bout, both fighters were in trouble several times and were able to press on until the final bell in a historic stand-up battle that ended in a draw.
When I made my number on Saturday's fight, I actually made Nelson a short favorite, as he's been slightly more reliable on getting wins. Nelson seems to beat the guys he should beat on paper and loses only to top-level fighters. He has first-round knockouts over mid-level heavyweights like Antonio Nogueira, Dave Herman, Matt Mitrione and Cheick Kongo. However, Nelson did lose last year to highly-ranked light heavyweight Daniel Cormier in a heavyweight bout. Nevertheless, Big Country proved to be a tough customer to finish and lost in a decision.
There is one particular edge I give Nelson in this matchup. Even though he usually tries to get a knockout, he has really skilled wrestling to fall back on. If this fight slows down and grappling becomes a factor, look for Nelson to get the better of those situations.
I’m not expecting this fight to go the distance. If it does, Nelson's boxing appears to be a little tighter than Hunt's, giving him the ability to control the center of the octagon. I’m going to take the small underdog price with Nelson to beat Hunt in what should be a very entertaining fight for as long as it lasts.