UFC Odds and Picks
By: Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS – UFC Fight Night comes to us Friday Nov. 7th from Sydney, Australia (10 p.m. ET, UFC Fight Pass), with a key fight in the middleweight division between fifth-ranked Luke Rockhold and ninth-ranked Michael "The Count" Bisping. Rockhold, the former Strikeforce promotion middleweight champion, is a -450 favorite at Caesars in this matchup, with Bisping getting +375 odds as the underdog.
This should be a great fight between two guys who genuinely don't like each other. So far, the press conferences have been entertaining, with the war of words continuing to heat up. It will certainly be interesting to see the stare down at the weigh-in.
As for the fight itself, this should be a lot closer than the line indicates. Both fighters have been top middleweights for a long time, and both need a win here to get closer to a title shot.
Rockhold (12-2-0) has now had three fights in the UFC, winning two of them easily and losing the other by KO to Vitor Belfort in his first UFC fight. He will surely be full of confidence entering the octagon in Sydney after coming off those two first-round finishes. Rockhold figures to come out early in this fight and really press the action against "The Count".
Bisping (26-6-0) has been a mainstay in the UFC middleweight division for quite a while but never seems to get that one win that vaults him into a title shot. At the age of 35, time may be running out for "The Count".
Bisping is one of the most polarizing figures in MMA, with most fans not really liking "The Count". Back in 2013, Bisping was really moving up the ladder before an eye injury set him back and kept him out of action for a year. His comeback fight earlier this year left a lot to be desired, as he lost a one-sided decision to Tim Kennedy as a big favorite. Bisping came back this August, though, with a solid showing against Cung Le, who he stopped in the fourth round. That should be a good tuneup for his matchup with Rockhold.
Although either fighter could have his hand raised in this fight, sometimes betting is all about value. Rockhold at -450 here just doesn't make any sense, as this line should be much lower. Look for Bisping to give a good account of himself and out-fight the odds.
Take Michael "The Count" Bisping and the generous +375 to upset Luke Rockhold and move up the middleweight ladder.
UFC Odds and Picks
By: Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS – UFC Fight Night comes to us this Saturday with a light heavyweight fight between 9th ranked Mauricio "Shogun" Rua and 10th ranked Ovince St. Preux (10:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1). Shogun is a -190 favorite in his homeland of Uberlandia, Brazil. St. Preux gets +160 odds as the underdog.
This number on the favorite is slightly higher than the -160 that I projected, as oddsmakers tend to overvalue favorites in MMA. This, however, works to the bettors' advantage, as we always look for live underdogs here at The Linemakers on Sporting News.
Shogun (22-9-0), only 32, seems to have been around forever, and who can forget some of his classic fights from back in the Pride Fighting promotion. To add, Shogun is still one of the most popular fighters in MMA. However, that doesn't always reflect his true ability at this time in his career. Shogun has only one win in his last four fights. His last fight was a real disappointment, as he controlled the first two rounds easily against veteran Dan Henderson but left his hands down and got caught with a KO punch. The blow broke his nose, and he needed surgery.
Shogun does have a few wins over great fighters on his resume, like Chuck Liddell and Lyoto Machida. However, he also has lost to Forrest Griffin and Chael Sonnen. The win over Machida, probably the best performance of his UFC career, did garner him the light heavyweight title, which he lost in his first defense to current champion Jon Jones.
St. Preux (16-6-0) was on a nice five-fight winning streak when he was defeated in his last fight by Ryan Bader. In that bout, St. Preux had a big chance to establish himself as a contender in the light heavyweight division. To his disappointment, Bader's wrestling and takedown threats were enough to keep St. Preux out of sync and off balance the whole fight, as he lost a one-sided decision.
A positive for St. Preux in on Saturday is that Shogun likely won’t be looking for many takedowns. As a result, this should turn into a good striking match. When striking becomes the theme of a fight, anything can happen. That bodes well for underdog bettors who like St. Preux here. It's always a tall order to try and beat another fighter in his homeland, where a decision might be hard to get. Yet, this could be a good spot for the dog.
Remember, St. Preux is a late replacement for Jimi Manuwa, who pulled out of this fight only a week ago. Surely, Shogun has had to quickly change his game plan and that could work to our advantage. Look for this number to drift higher closer to fight time, as most bettors will back Shogun in his home country.
We'll go with St. Preux to get the upset win here as the underdog.