UFC Odds and Picks – Edgar, Swanson clash in Texas
By: Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS – UFC Fight Night comes to us Saturday night from Austin, Texas, with a great fight in the featherweight division between third-ranked Frankie "The Answer" Edgar and second-ranked Cub Swanson (10 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1). Edgar is a -240 favorite, with Swanson getting about 2-1 odds as the underdog. This line is up from the openers, which had Edgar about -180.
Edgar (17-4-1), the higher-profile fighter, is a legend in the lighter weight divisions of MMA. The former UFC lightweight champion has had some of the classic battles in all of UFC. Who will ever forget the two classics he had with B.J. Penn? In the first fight, he took the title from Penn as a big underdog. In the second fight, he defended his title and beat the former champion again. Those fights were followed by two more great ones with Gray Maynard. The first ended in a controversial draw, while the second was a more decisive victory, as Edgar finished Gray with a fourth-round KO.
Edgar then lost his title in his next fight to Benson Henderson in a very close unanimous decision. In the rematch, he came up short again in a split decision. "The Answer" then dropped down to the featherweight division and was immediately given a title shot against the great Jose Aldo. Edgar lost a decision, but the fight was much closer than most expected, and Edgar proved he was going to be a major player in the 145-pound division. Edgar's last fight was an easy third-round KO over Penn, essentially ending Penn's long and storied career.
Swanson (21-5-0) has been under the radar for the last few years, but is on a nice six-fight win streak. In those fights, he has some impressive wins, including KOs over Charles Oliveira, Ross Pearson and Dennis Siver. Swanson has lost to Aldo, but that was back in the WEC promotion. Today, Swanson is a much different and much better fighter.
Betting is about value. Remember to look at betting as an investment and think long term. As the outstanding handicappers here at The Linemakers on Sporting News often say, the recreational bettor wants to bet on who they feel is better regardless of the line, whereas the sharp or professional bettor looks for the better value.
This line made more sense when it was -180, which was the opening price, as Edgar always gives a solid performance and has slightly better chance of winning. However, the current price of -240 is just too high in a fight that can go either way. If these two great featherweights fought five times, Edgar would likely win three of them.
Strictly as value play, let’s go with Cub Swanson at +200 Saturday night to get the win over Frankie Edgar in what should be a great fight to watch no matter the outcome.