UFC Fight Night Odds and Picks
By: Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS – UFC Fight Night comes to us Saturday night from Phoenix, Ariz., with a key fight in the heavyweight division between second-ranked former champion Junior dos Santos and fourth-ranked Stipe Miocic (8 p.m. ET, Fox). dos Santos is a -415 favorite, with Miocic getting +340 odds as the underdog.
dos Santos (16-3-0) exploded on the scene with a KO over current heavyweight title holder Cain Velasquez in the first round back in 2011 to become champion. dos Santos was able to defend his title just once, in an easy, second-round finish over veteran Frank Mir. A rematch with Velasquez didn't work out so well, as dos Santos was dominated from start to finish before losing a lopsided unanimous decision. After a win over Mark Hunt, dos Santos was paired with Velasquez in the rubber match. Once again, Velasquez dominated the entire fight, this time finishing dos Santos in the fifth round.
That loss to Velasquez in 2013 was the last time dos Santos has fought. He will have been off for almost 14 months when he steps into the octagon Saturday night. Ring rust could be a real issue.
Although dos Santos is a very dangerous striker, he has been slightly overrated, especially on the betting lines. That might be the case again in this bout against up-and-comer Miocic (12-1-0).
A second-round defeat to Stefan Struve back in 2012 is the only loss of Miocic’s career and earned Fight of the Night honors. Since that defeat, Miocic has gone on a nice three-fight win streak, including victories over veterans Roy Nelson and Gabriel Gonzaga. His last fight was an impressive 35-second KO over Fabio Maldonado.
dos Santos-Miocic was supposed to take place back in May, but a hand injury to dos Santos forced him to pull out. Instead, Miocic fought Maldonado.
It seems hard to back dos Santos at such a big price on Saturday, especially since he has become a more one-dimensional stand-up striker. Even though Miocic also likes to strike, he brings a solid wrestling base into this contest. Surely dos Santos will want to keep this fight on the feet and use his boxing to keep Miocic off balance. However, that might be easier said than done, as Miocic has proved a very tough customer to land punches against.
The value is on Miocic at +340 or more, so we’re playing him to upset Junior dos Santos in Saturday night’s main event.
Before the main event ....
There's more heavyweight action on the undercard, including a fight between veteran Alistair Overeem as a -300 favorite against Stefan Struve, the +250 dog. This might be one of the better chances for a good price on the card, as Overeem has proved unreliable lately by losing three of his last four fights. He has also had cardio issues in the past. Look for Struve to upset Overeem.
Also, take Matt Mitrione as a small -130 favorite to defeat Gabriel Gonzaga in another heavyweight battle.
All in all, this is a great card from top to bottom that shouldn't be missed.