UFC Fight Night Odds and Picks
By: Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS – UFC Fight Night comes to us this Sunday night from Boston with a big fight in the featherweight division between 5th-ranked Conor McGregor and 10th-ranked Dennis Siver (10 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1). McGregor, a rising star in the MMA world, is a prohibitive 11-to-1 favorite to get the win over Siver, who gets about 7-to-1 odds as the underdog.
Though McGregor (16-2-0) is ranked fifth in the division, he will be looking at a title shot later this year once he gets past Siver (22-9-0). That fight will likely take place in his homeland of Ireland.
McGregor looked especially good in his last two fights with first-round KO wins over Diego Brandao and Dustin Poirier. Both fights earned him performance of the night bonuses.
McGregor has been able to use his striking ability in most of his recent fights, and has had little to worry about with his opponents. Siver, however, could pose a bit of a problem, as he has very solid wrestling skills and will surely test Conor's ability to defend a takedown.
McGregor, 26, is in his prime and on a roll, winning his last 12 fights since starting his career 4-2. If he can keep this fight standing, he should have little problem taking out Siver. At 36, Siver could be looking at his last shot to make a title run and could really use an upset win to keep himself relevant in the highly-competitive featherweight division.
Siver has been in with some high-level competition throughout his career but often comes out on the short end of the decisions. Back in 2013, he earned fight of the night honors in a loss to tough Cub Swanson, who was able to finish Siver in the third round.
McGregor, a Dublin, Ireland native, has become very popular with MMA fans and will surely have plenty of people on his side Sunday night in Boston.
For betting purposes, laying anything remotely close to 10-1 makes little sense. As we've said in the past here at The Linemakers on Sporting News, don't bet the orchard to win an apple. On the other hand, we won't argue with anyone who puts a few bucks on Siver at 7-1 or even higher in some books. Hopefully, he can get a few takedowns and pull off a big upset, but don’t rush to the window to bet this one.
The undercard
The undercard features a huge fight in the lightweight division between Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone and former champion Benson Henderson. Cerrone took this fight on short notice, after he easily defeated Myles Jury in a unanimous decision on Jan. 3. Cerrone replaces injured Eddie Alvarez and might be getting too much respect on the betting line for his recent six-fight win streak over much weaker competition than he'll face in Henderson. Henderson is a -140 favorite to get back to his winning ways here, with "Cowboy" getting +120 odds as the underdog.
Henderson (21-4) did lose his last fight, getting KO'ed in the first round by Rafael dos Anjos. But don't forget, the former champ has beaten the likes of Nate Diaz, Gilbert Melendez and former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar twice.
This line is way too low for a great fighter like Henderson, who already beat Cerrone (26-6) twice back in his WEC days. Surely "Cowboy" will be full of confidence, but a short training camp and a big jump up in competition could be a little too much to overcome. Seems like a good chance to take advantage of a short-priced favorite.
Lay the -140 with Benson Henderson to get the win over Donald Cerrone.
UFC Fight Night 59 Preview
By Sportsbook.ag
Event: UFC Fight Night 59
Date: Sun. January 18, 2015
TV/Time: (FS1, 10:00 p.m. ET)
Venue: TD Garden
City: Boston, Massachusetts, United States
Middleweight Fight - Uriah Hall (10-4) vs. Ron Stallings (12-6)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Hall -800, Stallings +550
Uriah Hall looks to pick up his third consecutive victory as he takes on Ron Stallings at UFC Fight Night in Boston on Sunday.
Hall entered the UFC with high expectations after delivering one of the most vicious knockouts in the history of the sport on The Ultimate Fighter when he delivered a spinning hook kick knockout of Adam Cella. However, he struggled early in his career and was potentially on his way to being fired. But Hall has bounced back nicely in his past two fights, including a unanimous decision victory against Thiago Santos at UFC 175 on July 5. Hall is an explosive athlete who has all of the talent in the world, but is not always focused when he is in the octagon. However, these past two matches have shown he may be back to reaching his great potential. Ron Stallings is entering the UFC octagon for the first time in his career, and he will be looking to bounce back from an MMA loss to Tim Williams on November 1, 2014. For the heavily-favored HALL, this is the type of match that he has to come out and take care of business in, and that is exactly he will do.
"Prime Time" Hall has 10 wins in his career, with seven of them coming by way of knockout. He also has two wins by decision and one by submission (heel hook). Hall has a good average when it comes to landing significant strikes (2.94 landed per minute), and he is also extremely accurate when it comes to landing his attempts (49.33%). Hall averages 1.5 takedowns with a 42% accuracy mark. He's a solid defender too with a 60% striking defense and 64% takedown defense. When it comes to athletes in the UFC, Hall is as good as there is in the sport. The 30-year-old who fights out of New York City does a nice job of using that athleticism, and he will have to be prepared against a fighter who can end a fight quickly by knockout.
Stallings has 12 wins in his career, with six of them coming by knockout, and the other six by submission. He is able to submit his opponent in a variety of ways with victories coming by two RNC, two triangle, one guillotine and one armbar submission. Of his dozen victories, five have been won in the first round. The guy they call “ChoirBoy” (because he plays the keyboard at church) is a very similar athlete to his Sunday opponent, which is something that Hall does not usually have to deal with in the sport. Another key thing to look for in this matchup is that this is the first UFC fight for the 31-year-old Stallings, so Hall will have to be 100 percent focused and not overlook his opponent. Stallings is 6-feet, 185 pounds and has very good strength for this weight class as well, and a golden opportunity to go out there and show he belongs in the UFC with a victory against Hall, who is also 6-feet, 185 pounds.
Lightweight Fight - Benson Henderson (21-4) vs. Donald Cerrone (26-6)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Henderson -135, Cerrone +105
Donald Cerrone looks for his second victory in 15 days as he takes on Benson Henderson at UFC Fight Night in Boston on Sunday.
If it seems like Cerrone was just in a match, it is because he was. “Cowboy” picked up a unanimous decision victory against Myles Jury on January 3 at UFC 182. Cerrone is the most active fighter in the sport right now, as Sunday will mark his seventh fight since Nov. 16, 2013, and he has won each of those six bouts. But none of those fights are as big as the opportunity he has in Boston that could earn him a championship opportunity. It will not be easy though, as he is going up against a fighter who has beaten him twice in his career (2009 and 2010), both in championship bouts. While the first fight went the full five rounds with significant striking nearly equal (34-28), the rematch was completely dominated by Henderson, who held a 15-1 striking advantage before winning on a first-round submission. Henderson is an extremely talented fighter who is looking to bounce back from a bad loss against Rafael dos Anjos on Aug. 23 where he was knocked out only 2:31 into the fight. The winner of Sunday's matchup will be in great position to potentially earn a title fight, and despite a fight just 15 days ago, CERRONE will finally figure out Henderson for the victory.
"Cowboy" Cerrone has 26 victories in his career, with 15 of them coming by way of submission, broken down by seven triangle chokes, five RNC and three armbars. He also has seven wins by decision and four by knockout. Because both fighters have different strengths, the very beginning of this match is extremely important. Cerrone has a big advantage when it comes to landing significant strikes (3.87 for Cerrone and 2.72 for Henderson). While he has knockouts on his resume, he is landing those strikes to wear out his opponent, and set up the opportunity for a submission victory. For the 31-year-old who fights out of Albuquerque, there really isn’t any kind of game plan in a match so soon after his previous fight. That plays to his biggest strength, just going out there and letting it fly. While both fighters weigh 155 pounds, the 6-foo-1 Cerrone has a four-inch height advantage over the 5-foot-9 Henderson.
"Smooth" Henderson enters this fight with 21 victories in his career, with 10 of his wins coming by way of decision. He also has seven wins by submission (four guillotine, three RNC), with the other four coming by way of knockout. Even with his loss last August, Henderson has still won nine of his past 11 fights. Henderson will have a big advantage when it comes to grappling with a 2.6 takedown average (1.41 for Cerrone), and he will try and use that against Cerrone. The first time these fighters collided, Henderson held an 8-1 takedown advantage. The problem with Henderson's strategy is that if he is not careful, then he can be playing right into the strength of Cerrone. In his past two losses, he has gotten careless and ended up losing very quickly, falling in a first-round submission to Anthony Pettis on Aug. 31, 2013. If the 31-year-old who fights out of Glendale, AZ is able to get off to a fast start, he will be in great shape to get the win. Cerrone will try to win this fight early, so Henderson must be able to withstand the pressure.
5-Round Featherweight Fight - Conor McGregor (16-2) vs. Dennis Siver (22-9)
Sportsbook.ag Line: McGregor -900, Siver +600
Conor McGregor looks to continue his movement up the featherweight ladder as he takes on Dennis Siver at UFC Fight Night in Boston on Sunday.
McGregor promised to make his presence felt when he came to the UFC, and he has absolutely kept his promise with 12 straight victories. Three of his four matches in the UFC have ended in the first round, including his last match against Dustin Poirier on Sept. 27, a fight that lasted only 1:46. McGregor is the type of fighter that the fans love, because he is going to go out there and make the bout very exciting. Siver has a different fighting style than McGregor, but he is 7-3 in his past 10 fights, including a victory against Charles Rosa by way of unanimous decision on Oct. 4. At 36 years old, Siver is not going to get many opportunities to fight a guy like McGregor. He will have to come out prepared and not let his opponent's aggressiveness get to him. However, that will not make a difference against McGREGOR, who is on a mission to win the featherweight title, and he will inch closer to that fight with a dominating victory against Siver.
"The Notorious" McGregor has 16 wins on his resume, with the majority of them (14) coming by way of knockout. He also has one win by both decision and submission (RNC), and has totaled 12 first-round finishes in his career. McGregor will have many advantages in this fight, but his biggest strength is the ability to knock out his opponent. The 26-year-old from Dublin averages 4.6 significant strikes landed per minute, while Siver averages 3.8. McGregor's grappling (3.41 takedown average) is also much better than Siver’s 1.04 takedown average, which is going to make it very difficult for Siver to get the victory. If McGregor comes out and is focused, the heavy underdog has little change of pulling off the mammoth upset.
For Siver, this is a very difficult matchup because he doesn’t appear to have any strengths over McGregor. He does have much more experience of the two combatants, and enters this fight with 22 victories in his career. Siver, who hails from Russia but currently fights out of Germany, has shown he can win in many different ways. He has eight wins by decision, with seven victories by both knockout and submission. Seven of these wins have been first-round finishes, and he has won by five different submission techniques (2 RNC, 2 armbar, 1 guillotine, 1 heel hook and 1 choke) For Siver to have a chance to win this fight, he is needs to be the aggressor and never let up. The odds are definitely stacked against him, but the thing about the UFC, is it takes just one second for a match to be over.
Other UFC Fight Night 59 Bouts - Odds per Sportsbook.ag
Light Heavyweight Bout:
Sean O'Connell -170
Matt Van Buren +140
Flyweight Bout:
Joby Sanchez -175
Tateki Matsuda +145
Welterweight Bout:
Sean Spencer -170
Cathal Pendred +140
Welterweight Bout:
Lorenz Larkin -170
John Howard +140
Lightweight Bout:
Chris Wade -500
Zhang Lipeng +375
Flyweight Bout:
Patrick Holohan -290
Shane Howell +225
Lightweight Bout:
Johnny Case -185
Frankie Perez +150
Featherweight Bout:
Charles Rosa -145
Sean Soriano +115
Lightweight Bout:
Gleison Tibau -145
Norman Parke +115
Check out more UFC Fight Night 59 Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!
UFC Fight Night 59 Picks
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
The Conor McGregor Show will resume Sunday night in Boston, where the featherweight contender will take on Dennis Siver in the main event of UFC Fight Night 59. McGregor (14-2 MMA, 4-0 UFC) will get a title shot versus long-time champion Jose Aldo if he can defeat the veteran German kickboxer.
As of late Saturday afternoon, most betting shops had 'The Notorious' installed as a -1200 favorite, while Siver is available for an attractive +800 payout on the comeback (risk $100 to win $800). The 'over/under' is 1.5 rounds (-180 for the 'under,' +150 for the 'over'). If you're extremely bullish on McGregor but want to find a less expensive price, you can take the Irish legend at -600 to win inside the distance or -500 to win by TKO (at 5Dimes).
McGregor (16-2 MMA, 4-0 UFC) is the promotion's biggest rising star, one who has the talent, moxy and fan support to become the UFC's most popular and money-making fighter. Obviously, that's a lot to say about a guy who has yet to even fight for UFC gold, but the doubters are disappearing rapidly and his domination in his first four trips into the Octagon can't be denied.
McGregor made his organizational debut against Marcus Brimmage in April of 2013. He needed only 67 seconds to dispose of Brimmage by TKO in Sweden. For doing so, McGregor collected a Performance of the Night bonus, one that he requested after the victory by telling Joe Rogan on the microphone, "Yeah Dana! 60G's baby!!!"
His second UFC fight came in August of 2013 in Boston, where he walked out to a standing ovation and then beat Max Holloway by unanimous decision. Late in the first round as the fighters battled for position on the ground, McGregor passed Holloway's guard into side control. However, as he attempted to pass guard, his knee got caught and his MCL and ACL were torn.
'The Notorious' wasn't aware of the extent of the injury at the time, but he knew he was in pain. Therefore, he got early takedowns in Rounds 2 and 3, maintained dominant position and cruised to a UD victory.
After a quick recovery, McGregor returned to the Octagon to face Diego Brandao in the main event in his home country of Ireland in Dublin. The 145-pound sensation got the victory via TKO at the 4:05 mark of the first round.
At that point, McGregor was talking loads of smack, while other 145-pounders expressed doubt about his skills because of the competition he had faced. Well, Dana White took care of that as he matched the Irishman up with fifth-ranked Dustin 'Diamond' Poirier, who is from Louisiana and fights out of South Florida.
McGregor had his shit-talking game at full force leading into this contest. He was clearly under Poirier's skin for weeks before they arrived in Las Vegas for UFC 178. If you talk the talk, you must walk the walk. And that's exactly what McGregor did, earning the early KO in less than two minutes.
In his next performance, McGregor will face Siver, who used to fight rather successfully in the lightweight division. Siver (22-9 MMA, 11-6 UFC) went 8-4 in the 155-pound loop but after getting choked out by Donald 'Cowboy' Cerrone in the first round at UFC 137, he decided to drop down 145.
Since then, the German has compiled a 3-1 record with one no-contest in a fight he originally won but was taken away after a failed drug test. Siver has earned a pair of Fight of the Night bonuses in his five-fight stay at featherweight.
Prediction: Obviously, the price on McGregor is way too expensive to consider for a second. In my opinion, if you are bullish on McGregor like I am, you go 'under' 1.5 rounds (although the 180 price is 'chalky,' it's the best rate you can find to win on McGregor) if you believe he'll win by first-round KO like I do.
In the co-main event, Donald 'Cowboy' Cerrone will face Benson Henderson on just a 15-day turnaround. Cerrone (26-6 MMA, 13-3 UFC) has won six consecutive fights and took zero punishment in a unanimous-decision win (30-27 three time) over Myles Jury two weeks ago. Henderson was scheduled to face former Bellator lightweight champ Eddie Alvarez, who was forced to withdraw after injuring himself during training camp.
Cerrone gladly accepted the invite to face Henderson, who twice beat 'Cowboy' during their pre-UFC days fighting for the World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) promotion. Henderson (21-4 MMA, 9-2 UFC) lost his belt after being forced to tap via armbar from Anthony 'Showtime' Pettis at UFC 164.
The former lightweight kingpin responded with back-to-back victories over Josh Thomson and Rustam Khahilov. However, in his last outing in August, Henderson fell victim to a KO for the first time inside the Octagon, as he was knocked out by current No. 1 contender Rafael dos Anjos.
Henderson considered moving up to welterweight, but passed on that notion when offered Alvarez. Now he gets Cerrone instead.
Prediction: I like Cerrone here. I don't see the 15-day turnaround to be a negative. And the last time I recall this fast of a return to the Octagon, Chris Leben delivered one of his best career performances. 'Cowboy's skills have evolved immensely since he last got in the cage with Henderson, who I think is going to taste defeat this time around. I'm on Cerrone for a +115 return!