UFC Odds and Picks
By Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com
UFC Fight Night comes to us Saturday from Krakow, Poland (prelims 11:45 a.m. ET, main card 3 p.m. ET, UFC Fight Pass) with a heavyweight bout between two veterans. Former Pride Fighting legend, Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic and Gabriel Gonzaga, will go at it.
Gonzaga, who challenged Randy Couture for the UFC heavyweight title back in 2007, is listed at -170 to end his two-fight losing streak. Cro Cop, who gets +150 odds as the underdog, finished his most-recent run in the UFC with three consecutive losses, the last probably his worst performance: a KO by Roy Nelson in October 2011. Now at age 40, Cro Cop starts his third stint with the UFC.
Since leaving the UFC after his loss to Nelson, Mirko has done some kick boxing and fought in smaller MMA promotions in Japan.
This marks the second meeting between Gonzaga and Cro Cop . In April 2007, during Cro Cop's first stint in the UFC, he was finished in the first round with a highlight-reel head kick by Gonzaga.
Cro Cop (30-11-2) has always been a one-dimensional fighter with great leg kicks. His left kick to the body can be vicious, and it would be wise for Gonzaga to stay away from those brutal shots. If he can do that, there's not much more to Cro Cop's overall game he has to worry about.
Gonzaga (16-9) was finished in his last fight by Matt Mitrione and hasn't been on much of a roll lately, either. Gonzaga probably has more fights left in his career (at age 35) than does Cro Cop and has shown in the past to have a pretty well-rounded MMA game.
The Linemakers lean: Cro Cop will get a lift from the Eastern European crowd, but that will last for only so long. If Gonzaga gets by the first barrage of strikes from Cro Cop, look for the fight to turn in his favor. We're not exactly excited to run to the windows to bet Gonzaga, and our play is more of a fade against Cro Cop. But take Gabriel Gonzaga and lay the -170 in the main event Saturday.
Undercard
Before the main event, 9th-ranked light heavyweight Jimi Manuwa takes on Jan Blachowicz. Manuwa (14-1) opened as a -120 favorite and has been bet up to -160 in most books.
Manuwa saw his 14-fight undefeated streak end in his last outing at the hands of Alexander Gustafsson in March 2014. Manuwa was finished in the second round and looked to be out of his league against the highly-ranked Gustafsson.
Blachowicz (18-3), who hails from Cieszyn, Poland, has done most of his work in the KSW fighting promotion in his home country. Should the fight go a decision, as most of his bouts do, his huge home advantage becomes even bigger.
The Linemakers lean: The early money is giving too much respect to Manuwa for his 14-1 record. He really hasn't beaten any top light heavyweights, and he was easily finished when he stepped up in competition against Gustafsson. Blachowicz, who has only one fight in the UFC (a first-round KO win over Ilir Latifi) might be a little undervalued by the betting market here. This could be a hard spot for Manuwa, and the oddsmakers, in fact, have it wrong. Take Blachowicz fighting in his homeland to upset Manuwa at the generous price of +140.
UFC Fight Night 64 Preview
MMAOddsBreaker.com
Ultimate Fighting Championships (UFC) is back once more with a free event tomorrow morning/afternoon (Saturday, April 11th, 2015) in Krakow, Poland, which is headlined by a heavyweight rematch between a pair of longtime veterans. Here's the outline for tomorrow's show:
Main Card
265 lbs: Gabriel Gonzaga (16-9) vs. Mirko Cro Cop Filipovic (30-11-2)
205 lbs: Jimi Manuwa (14-1) vs. Jan Blachowicz (18-3)
170 lbs: Pawel Pawlak (10-1) vs. Sheldon Westcott (8-2)
115 lbs: Joanne Calderwood (9-0) vs. Maryna Moroz (5-0)
Preliminary Card
170 lbs: Seth Baczynski (19-12) vs. Leon Edwards (8-2)
185 lbs: Bartosz Fabinski (11-2) vs. Garreth McLellan (12-2)
170 lbs: Sergio Moraes (8-2) vs. Mickael Lebout (13-3-1)
145 lbs: Damian Stasiak (8-2) vs. Yaotzin Meza (20-9)
265 lbs: Daniel Omielanczuk (16-4) vs. Anthony Hamilton (13-4)
115 lbs: Izabela Badurek (5-2) vs. Alexandra Abu (5-0)
155 lbs: Marcin Bandel (13-3) vs. Stevie Ray (16-5)
145 lbs: Taylor Lapilus (8-1) vs. Rocky Lee (3-0)
This event is special because of the main event of the evening, which features a rematch of one of the most iconic knockouts in UFC history. In their first meeting, Mirko Cro Cop was on a huge wave of hype, but ended up eating a huge right head kick and was brutally knocked out. Gonzaga would up taking Cro Cop's title shot (which he would lose against then-champion Randy Couture). Now, eight years later, both men are nearing the ends of their career, both have been on the receiving end of several knockouts and this one could end very quickly.
Another fight to keep an eye on is the co-main event of the evening, which features a light heavyweight battle between contenders Jimi Manuwa and Jan Blachowicz. Both men are solid strikers and are looking to get in the title mix. Blachowicz will be fighting in his home country so he'll be highly motivated to put on a good performance, but Manuwa is incredibly powerful and dangerous as well. This could be the most entertaining bout on the card.
There are a whopping 10 fighters overall making their UFC debuts on this card, with nearly all of them hailing from Europe. They'll be quickly sorting out the contenders from the pretenders, but one fighter to potentially keep an eye on is the debuting women's strawweight Alexandra Albu, who enters the promotion on a wave of hype despite limited overall mixed martial arts experience.
Remember, the fights will start Saturday morning at about 11:15 am Eastern time due to the event taking place in Poland.
UFC Fight Night 64 Preview
By Adam Martin
MMAOddsbreaker.com
The main event of UFC Fight Night 64 is a five-round heavyweight bout between Gabriel Gonzaga and Mirko Cro Cop.
Gonzaga (16-9) is one of the longest-tenured heavyweight fighters on the UFC roster. The 35-year-old Brazilian is 11-8 in the UFC with wins over the likes of Cro Cop, Shawn Jordan, and Ben Rothwell, with his losses all coming against top-15 talent like Stipe Miocic, Travis Browne, and Matt Mitrione. Gonzaga is a BJJ black belt and he has some of the best submissions in the UFC and has eight tapout wins overall. He is also incredibly powerful on the feet and has eight knockout wins to his credit.
His problems are his speed, as he’s quite slow for a heavyweight, and also his chin, as he’s been knocked out seven times in his career. He is a finisher, though, and not an easy guy to beat.
He is coming into this fight against Cro Cop on a two-fight losing streak, and he desperately needs a win here, but it’s a winnable fight against a guy with a suspect chin who he has been before and that’s why he is the favorite.
Cro Cop (30-11-2, 1 NC) is making his return to the UFC for a third stint in the promotion overall. The 40-year-old Croatian is 4-6 in the UFC overall with wins over the likes of Pat Barry and Anthony Perosh. He also has wins over the likes of Josh Barnett (x3), Wanderlei Silva, Mark Coleman and Kazushi Sakuraba during his illustrious career in MMA.
A kickboxer by trade, Cro Cop is known for his dangerous high kicks and has won 22 fights via T/KO during his career. He is incredibly dangerous on the feet and has won his last two fights by knockout. He is not known for his grappling, but later in his career he started to improve his submissions and overall has five victories by tapout.
Like Gonzaga, though, Cro Cop’s problem is his chin. He has been knocked out five times in his career, including three-straight KO losses that ended his last run in the UFC. He has also been submitted three times. No doubt Cro Cop is an offensive talent, but defensively he is very flawed and while he always has that kicker’s chance, there are too many things going against him to be confident in him against a top-15 heavyweight like Gonzaga, and that’s why he’s the underdog in this fight despite coming into this bout riding a two-fight winning streak.
There is no way this fight is going five rounds. No way. Both men possess finishing ability on the feet and on the mat and with boys guys having suspect chins, I’d be shocked if this went 25 minutes. That being said, I favor Gonzaga to win this fight in devastating fashion. First off, he won the pair’s initial encounter back at UFC 70, and if anything, he’s the fighter who has improved more in the eight years since. Cro Cop was cut from the UFC the last time because he simply can’t hang with top-15 heavyweights anymore. And while Gonzaga isn’t great, he is a top-15 fighter as far as I’m concerned. He has a ton of power and if this fight hits the mat he will have a huge advantage.
Cro Cop’s only chance to win is to catch Gonzaga on the feet, and while I can’t completely rule that out because this is a heavyweight bout and anything can happen, I think more times than not Gonzaga catches Cro Cop and finishes him. I’m leaning towards a knockout, but a submission is possible.
I don’t typically bet on heavyweight fights because the “puncher’s chance” factor is higher, but in this case I have to lean heavyweight towards Gonzaga. I just feel like he has more ways to win this fight and at -170, I think there is value on him for a bet. I feel like Gonzaga should be around -250 in this spot, and believe the line is lower because there is always hype behind Cro Cop, and I have to take advantage of it.