UFC on FOX 15 Preview
By Sportsbook.ag
Event: UFC on FOX 15
Date: Sat. April, 18, 2015
TV/Time: (FOX, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Venue: Prudential Center
City: Newark, New Jersey
Middleweight Bout: Luke Rockhold (13-2-0) vs. Lyoto Machida (22-5-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Rockhold -155 Machida +125
Luke Rockhold looks to win his fourth consecutive fight on Apr. 18 when he takes on Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida in Newark.
Rockhold has had a fantastic start to his UFC career, winning his past three fights after losing his debut against Vitor Belfort via knockout back in mid-2013. Since then he has a knockout and two submissions, getting the knockout of the night in the win over Costas Philippou and then two amazing submissions; one being named the best of the year while the other earned him performance of the night honors. Overall in his career as an MMA fighter, Rockhold has leaned towards the submission, earning eight of his 13 career wins with this strategy and has used the rear-naked chokehold four times. In 10 of those 13 victories, he won in the first round and has shown he has the dominance to compete at this level moving forward.
Machida has been around for quite some time and the 36-year-old is coming off a quick knockout of C.B. Dollaway in just over a minute, but has also lost twice in his past five times in the octagon. Both of the defeats came in a decision and 11 of his 22 career wins have also come after the full amount of time has gone by. The former light heavyweight champion can also get it done with knockouts as he has won with this method on nine different occasions.
Rockhold has been one of the more aggressive fighters in the UFC recently, landing 3.60 significant strikes per minute despite an accuracy of 42% on those attempts. They have obviously gotten his opponents off-guard with him winning each of the past three fights in fewer than six minutes as he’s only taken a total of 21 significant strikes in that time. He parlays those solid punches and kicks into an average of 1.4 submissions attempted per 15 minutes and that is his go-to move when he is looking to finish off a match.
He gets into these situations due to phenomenal defense, taking a mere 1.86 significant strikes against him per minute as he fends off 65% of the attempts. He also is a nuisance to get on the mat, defending successfully against the takedown in 72% of opportunities and has never lost by a submission in his career. His last fight was against Michael Bisping and he did a great job on defense, allowing Bisping to land a meager 16-of-65 strike attempts (24%) before performing a guillotine choke early in the second round.
“The Dragon” has been fighting in the UFC since early 2007 and he can credit plenty of his success to the multitude of fighting styles that he has learned over the years. He takes pieces of shotokan karate, Brazilian jiu-jitsu, sumo, muay thai and wrestling to prepare for any given situation thrown his way. He’s used those methods to land 53% of his significant strike attempts at a rate of 2.65 per minute as he has also done a solid job at deflecting 63% of strikes against him. He didn’t even allow C.B. Dalloway to get in a landed strike in December, ending the match quickly with 12-of-19 strikes landing and a final kick to the body which ended it.
All of Machida’s fighting styles have allowed him plenty of opportunities to takedown his opponent and he has done so to the tune of 1.41 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 65% accuracy. He tends to stay upright as well, with opponents being successful at dropping him just 23% of the time. It is tough to go against this veteran due to his numerous strategies and experience and it will be interesting to see how Rockhold approaches the situation.
Other UFC on FOX 15 Bouts - Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
Middleweight Matchup
Eddie Gordon -500
Chris Dempsey +375
Featherweight Matchup
Diego Brandao -160
Jimy Hettes +130
Welterweight Matchup
Tim Means -145
George Sullivan +115
Bantamweight Matchup
Aljamain Sterling -260
Takeya Mizugaki +207
Light Heavyweight Matchup
Corey Anderson -285
Gian Villante +220
Light Heavyweight Matchup
Patrick Cummins -145
Ovince Saint Preux +115
Lightweight Matchup
Beneil Dariush -170
Jim Miller +140
Women's Strawweight Matchup
Paige VanZant -145
Felice Herrig +115
Featherweight Matchup
Cub Swanson -165
Max Holloway +135
Middleweight Matchup
Ronaldo Souza -1400
Chris Camozzi +800
UFC Odds and Picks
By Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com
UFC on Fox 15 comes to us Saturday night from Newark, New Jersey with a huge fight in the middleweight division between 2nd-ranked Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida and 4th-ranked Luke Rockhold (8 p.m. ET). Rockhold opened at about -130, and money has shown for the favorite, pushing Rockhold's odds to -160. Machida gets about +140 as the underdog.
Machida-Rockhold is the headliner of one of the best cards, from top to bottom, the UFC has ever put on.
Since debuting in the UFC back in 2013 with a KO-loss to Vitor Belfort, Rockhold (the former Strikeforce middleweight champion) has been on quite a roll, reeling off three straight wins all by stoppage. The last was an impressive submission win over always-tough veteran Michael Bisping.
Rockhold (13-2) has an aggressive style but will need to be a little more cautious against the dangerous striker Machida. It is difficult to get inside The Dragon's karate stance without taking some punishment.
Machida (22-5) is the former UFC light heavyweight champion and rarely has a bad performance. His last fight was an easy TKO-win over C.B. Dollaway that took just over a minute.
Before that fight, Lyoto fought UFC middleweight champion Chris Weidman back in July 2014 and lost a unanimous decision. Despite the loss, he was able to make the bout -- which earned Fight of the Night honors -- much closer than most experts anticipated.
The Linemakers lean: Rockhold is getting a little too much credit on the betting line here for beating lesser competition than he'll face in Machida. This is a very tough fight to handicap, as Rockhold seems to be primed for a big effort and has the chance to put himself right into the mix for a title shot later this year.
Sometimes when handicapping a close fight, though, the bettor has to look for value, and Machida at +140 represents value. He's a high-level fighter who has won the big events before. We like Machida +140 in what should be a great fight between two evenly-matched mixed martial artists.
Picks on the undercard
Picks on the undercard
Match No. 6: Ovince Saint-Preux vs. Pat Cummins
Cummins, surprisingly, is a -130 favorite in this light heavyweight fight, with Saint-Preux getting +110 odds as the dog.
Cummins is a highly-accomplished wrestler who has a nice 7-1 MMA record, but he's never beaten a top-level fighter. In fact, the only time Cummins stepped up against a high-level opponent, he was finished in just over a minute by Daniel Cormier and appeared to be out of his league.
Saint-Preux (17-6), who is coming off a quick 34-second KO over Maurício "Shogun" Rua, looks to be the much more talented fighter in this matchup.
The line is tilted in Cummins favor because the last time Saint-Preux faced a good wrestler, he had a difficult time and lost a one-sided decision to Ryan Bader. I have to believe that Saint-Preux has focused on defending takedowns. If he can keep this fight standing, he should be able to out-strike Cummins with ease. Take Ovince Saint-Preux +110 to defeat Pat Cummins.
Match 7: Jim Miller vs. Beneil Dariush
New Jersey's own Jim Miller is a +145 underdog against up-and-comer Beneil Dariush (10-1) in a lightweight fight. Miller (24-5) always brings the fight to his opponent and should get a big lift from the fans in his home state.
Take Miller and the generous price of +145 to upset Beneil Dariush.
Match 9: Cub Swanson vs. Max Holloway
Max Holloway (12-3) gets odds of about +130 as the dog against veteran Cub Swanson (21-6).
Take Holloway at +130 to pull the upset, as he's shown massive potential in some of his fights at only 23 years of age. He has much more upside than Swanson, who didn't look good losing his last fight to Frankie Edgar.
UFC on Fox 15 Preview
MMAOddsBreaker..com
Ultimate Fighting Championships (UFC) is back once more with a free event tomorrow night (Saturday, April 18th, 2015) in Newark, New Jersey, which is headlined by a pivotal middleweight bout between a pair of top contenders. Here's the outline for tomorrow's show:
Main Card
Lyoto Machida (22-5) vs. Luke Rockhold (13-2)
Jacare Souza (21-3) vs. Chris Camozzi (21-9)
Cub Swanson (21-6) vs. Max Holloway (12-3)
Felice Herrig (10-5) vs. Paige VanZant (4-1)
Preliminary Card
Jim Miller (24-5, 1 NC) vs. Beneil Dariush (10-1)
Ovince Saint Preux (17-6) vs. Patrick Cummins (7-1)
Corey Anderson (4-0) vs. Gian Villante (12-5)
Takeya Mizugaki (20-8-2) vs. Aljamain Sterling (10-0)
George Sullivan (16-3) vs. Tim Means (23-6-1)
Diego Brandao (18-10) vs. Jimy Hettes (11-2)
Eddie Gordon (7-2) vs. Chris Dempsey (10-2)
This event is special because of the main event of the evening, which features two former champions. Luke Rockhold entered the UFC as the reigning Strikeforce middleweight champion, and has quickly burst onto the scene, having won his last three fights in devastating fashion. Lyoto Machida was the former UFC light heavyweight champion and while he came up short in his last bid to win the middleweight crown, it was one of the best fights of 2014. Both men are vicious strikers with excellent ground games, so this fight is expected to be a very entertaining stand-up affair with the winner potentially earning a shot at the title.
Another fight to keep an eye on is the featherweight bout between Cub Swanson and Max Holloway. Swanson had his six-fight winning streak snapped by Frankie Edgar a few months ago, while the upstart Holloway has won five straight entering this bout. If Holloway is victorious, he'll be right in the mix among the top contenders at 145 pounds while if Swanson wins, he'll be right back on track in the division. Both men are very entertaining strikers and this fight has the potential to be a barnburner should it stay on the feet.
Several top prospects in the promotion will also be on display. Former Ultimate Fighter season 19 winner Corey Anderson looks to prove he's the real deal at light heavyweight while unbeaten bantamweight prospect Aljamain Sterling will face his toughest test yet against Takeya Mizugaki as he begins his climb up the 135-pound ladder. The main card will also feature a women's strawweight fight between Felice Herrig and Paige Vanzant. VanZant is just 21 years old and is looking for a statement win as she looks to enter the title mix.