UFC on FOX 24 Best Bets
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
The Octagon will land in the state of Missouri for the very first time Saturday night for UFC on FOX 24, a 13-fight card at Sprint Center in Kansas City. The main event will feature the promotion’s only featherweight champion since the division was created, Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson, who will take aim at his 10th title defense against Wilson Reis.
As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Johnson (25-2-1 MMA, 13-1-1 UFC) installed as a -800 favorite, leaving the challenger at +550 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $550). The total was 3.5 rounds (‘over’ -175, ‘under’ +150).
The 30-year-old Johnson is considered by most to be the best pound-for-pound mixed martial artists in the world. He hasn’t tasted defeat since dropping a unanimous decision to former bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz on Oct. 1 of 2011. That fight was contested at 135 pounds. In 2012, the flyweight division was started and Johnson hasn’t been beaten at 125 pounds yet.
Reis (22-6 MMA, 6-2 UFC) is a 32-year-old Brazilian with a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He brings a three-fight winning streak into this contest.
In the co-main event, women’s strawweight contenders Rose ‘Thug’ Namajunas and Michelle ‘The Karate Hottie’ Waterson will collide. As of late Friday afternoon, Namajunas was listed as the -135 ‘chalk,’ leaving Waterson as the +105 underdog. The total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -170, ‘under’ +145).
The two other fights on the main card include a middleweight showdown between Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza (-235) and Robert Whittaker (+190), in addition to a featherweight scrap between Jeremy ‘Little Heathen’ Stephens and Renato Moicano.
All 26 fighters made weight on Friday. The main card will start at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on FOX, while the prelims will begin at 6:00 p.m. Eastern on Fox Sports 1. The early prelims will consist of five fights on UFC Fight Pass starting at 4:00 p.m. Eastern.
Let’s get to **MY PICKS**
3 units on UNDER 1.5 rounds at +115 odds for Souza vs. Whittaker: Seven of Jacare’s last nine wins have come by first-round finishes, while 11 of Whittaker’s 17 career wins have come via first-round finishes. Either Jacare gets a submission in Round 1 or Whittaker gets a KO.
1.5 units on Roy ‘Big Country’ Nelson at +130 odds to defeat Alexander Volkov: I was at Nelson’s fight vs. Derrick Lewis in Las Vegas last summer. I felt Nelson had won the fight, but Lewis was given the split-decision nod. If not for what I feel like was mistake on the part of the judges, ‘Big Country’ would be on a three-fight winning streak. Although Nelson has a lot of L’s over the last few years, all of them have come against the world’s best heavyweights. Volkov is fighting in the UFC for only the second time after winning his debut.
1 unit on Michelle Waterson at +105 odds to defeat Rose Namajunas: I was very impressed with Waterson in her win over Paige Van Zant. I think she’ll win by decision.
Half unit on Bobby Green as a +300 underdog to defeat Rashid Magomedov
Finally, if we have a nice night with plenty of profit heading into the main event, maybe drop one-half unit on Reis if you’re feeling aggressive? It’s worth a shot, especially if you can get a +600 price or better like I’m seeing at a few offshores (as of late Friday afternoon).