UFC heads to Sweden
By Sportsbook.ag
Alexander Gustafsson (16-2) vs. Anthony Johnson (18-4)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Gustafsson -270, Johnson +212
Alexander Gustafsson gets to fight in his hometown of Stockholm, Sweden on Saturday night, as he takes on Anthony Johnson in a battle of two of the top contenders in the light heavyweight division.
The winner of this matchup should be getting the next title fight against Jon Jones, and for Gustafsson, that is something he has wanted since losing an extremely competitive fight to Jones on September 21, 2013. In that fight, he was able to hit Jones like he had never been hit before, and had the champ in big trouble until the final two rounds. However, that loss did not linger, as Gustafsson delivered a vicious knockout in his most recent fight against Jimi Manuwa on March 8, 2014. The 28-year-old from Sweden enters this bout extremely fresh, and he will need that against a fighter who is also coming off a dominating performance in Johnson. “Rumble” was out of the UFC from January of 2012 to April 26, 2014, but the 30-year-old from Georgia who fights out of Boca Raton, FL is riding an eight-fight win streak and has been dominant in his past two fights. He has defeated Phil Davis, and most recently Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, with the latter coming in just 44 seconds on July 26. UFC analyst Joe Rogan said Johnson is as scary of fighter as there is in the sport, and he has a golden opportunity in this bout. For Johnson, this is the biggest test of his career, as a championship fight would be next with a win. However, the fact that it is in Gustafsson’s home country will be too much to overcome, as GUSTAFSSON will do just enough to earn another title fight against Jones.
"The Mauler" Gustafsson has 16 victories in his career, with 10 of them coming by way of knockout. He also has three wins by both submission and decision, and eight of his finishes have come in the first round. While the 6-foot-5 Gustafsson is three inches taller than Johnson, he will not have the normal reach advantage that he is accustomed to (Gustafsson 79" reach, Johnson 78" reach). The Swedish fighter’s biggest advantage will be when it comes to landing significant strikes, as he averages almost one more per minute than Johnson (4.05 to 3.07). One of Johnson’s biggest weaknesses in the octagon has been his cardio, which has doomed him in a couple of his losses in the sport. That will be a big key in this fight, as Gustafsson showed in the fight against Jones that he could go five rounds with anybody in the sport. If this matchup occurred two years ago, it would be a no-brainer on who was going to get the win. However, Johnson has come back to the UFC a new fighter, and is more than ready to show he can be a champion.
"Rumble" Johnson has 18 career victories, with 12 of them coming by way of knockout. All but two of his UFC wins have come by knockout. Johnson also has six wins by decision, including the unanimous decision victory against Phil Davis last April. Davis is a terrific athlete who is considered to be one of the best-conditioned athletes in the sport, and for Johnson to win a fight in that style showed he had put in the time to get in much better shape. While he does not land as many strikes as Gustafsson, he is much more accurate when attempting his punches (44% for Johnson, compared to 37% for Gustafsson). Johnson is an extremely talented wrestler, who was a junior college national wrestling champion at Lassen Community College, but taking Gustafsson to the ground will be difficult, as Gustafsson defends 87% of his opponent’s takedown attempts. Johnson possesses as much power as anybody in the sport, but he will have to be ready from the beginning. The electricity and excitement in the building on Saturday night will give Gustafsson a huge advantage, so Johnson will have to overcome that.
Middleweight Bout - Gegard Mousasi (35-5-2) vs. Dan Henderson (30-12)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Mousasi -500, Henderson +375
Gegard Mousasi looks for a win against one of the best fighters of all-time as he takes on Dan Henderson at UFC on FOX in Sweden on Saturday night.
At 29 years old, Mousasi is in the prime of his career, but he needs to turn things around, as he has lost two of his past three fights. A loss to Lyoto Machida last Feb. 15 is nothing to be ashamed of, especially in a fight that went the five-round distance. However, falling to Ronaldo Souza on Sept. 5 is much more disappointing, as Mousasi was forced to tap due to a guillotine choke with only 30 seconds remaining in the fight. Mousasi is a highly-skilled, versatile fighter that can win a fight by any method. He has great knockout power, but that will be tested against a fighter who has shown in his career that he is tough to beat.
The 44-year-old Henderson is not the fighter that he was once, but he is still very tough and gives maximum effort whenever he steps into the Octagon. Henderson enters Saturday losing four of his past five fights, but has done so versus top-notch competition. The California native has losses to Machida, Rashad Evans, Vitor Belfort and most recently, Daniel Cormier on May 24.
Despite being only 29 years old, the Iranian-born Mousasi enters this fight with 35 career victories, with 20 of them coming by way of knockout. However, he has shown that he has the ability to win a fight in many different ways, with 10 coming by submission (6 RNC, 2 triangle, 1 guillotine and 1 kimura) and the other five by decision. His biggest advantage will be landing significant strikes as Mousasi averages 3.41 per minute, while Henderson averages only 2.38.
Not only does Mousasi do a great job of landing punches, but he is also very accurate when throwing those punches (50% striking accuracy). Striking is the biggest part of Henderson’s arsenal that has declined, and if this fight turns into a brawl, then Mousasi, whose 6-foot-1 frame is two inches taller than Henderson, will be in great shape to get the win.
Henderson enters this fight with 30 wins in his career, with 14 of them coming by both knockout and decision. "Hendo" also has two wins by submission (guillotine choke and knee to the ribs), while four of his career losses have been by submission. He has never been one to back down from a challenge, as Henderson has fought 10 current or former UFC champions in his career.
Neither of these two fighters is averaging a lot of takedowns (1.62 for Henderson, and 1.41 for Mousasi), but Henderson’s biggest advantage in this matchup will be his grit and determination, as this may be the final fight in his career. For someone like Henderson, the last thing he wants to do is end his career with a loss, so look for Henderson to bring a lot of energy into the Octagon on Saturday night.
Light Heavyweight Bout - Phil Davis (13-2) vs. Ryan Bader (18-4)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Davis -265, Bader +210
Phil Davis looks to build off a big win as he takes on Ryan Bader with a chance to move up the light heavyweight ladder on Saturday night in Stockholm, Sweden.
Davis is considered one of the best athletes in the sport, and he showed that in a unanimous decision victory against Glover Teixeira on Oct. 25. That win was huge for the 30-year-old from Pennsylvania, as he was coming off a tough decision loss to Anthony Johnson. That win got Johnson in a match where the winner will get a title fight, so Davis is very close to earning one of his own. He only has only two losses in his career, and both of them have been by decision.
Davis' speed and quickness make it very difficult for his opponents to deliver the big knockout punch. His Saturday opponent, Ryan Bader, has won his past three fights, including a victory against Ovince St. Preux. The 31-year-old from Arizona is one of the stronger fighters in this weight class, and he will have a strength advantage against Davis.
Davis enters this fight with 13 wins his career, with seven of them being by decision. He also has four wins by submission, with the other two coming by knockout. While Bader is more known for his knockouts than Davis, "Mr. Wonderful" will actually have an advantage over his opponent when it comes to landing significant strikes (2.93 for Davis, 2.64 for Bader).
When Davis throws his punches, he is doing it more to wear out his opponent, as very few fighters in this class can keep up with him in the latter rounds. If he is able to pick his spots, Davis should be able to get the win. However, if it turns into a striking battle, then Bader has a great chance for the victory.
"Darth" Bader enters the Octagon with 19 wins, nine of them coming by way of decision. He also has seven wins by knockout, with the other three coming by submission. While Bader will have a takedown advantage in this fight with a 3.84 takedown average, compared to 3.02 for Davis, he is looking more to try and wear his opponents out with the takedown.
Bader is definitely in great shape, but he has not yet faced someone like Davis. For Bader to have a great chance at getting the win, he will need to set the tone early by throwing a flurry of punches at Davis.
Other UFC of FOX 14 Bouts
Flyweight Matchup
Chris Beal -185
Neil Seery +150
Featherweight Matchup
Mirsad Bektic -550
Paul Redmond +400
Heavyweight Matchup
Konstantin Erokhin -300
Viktor Pesta +235
Lightweight Matchup
Mairbek Taisumov -600
Anthony Christodoulou +425
Light Heavyweight Matchup
Nikita Krylov -140
Stanislav Nedkov +110
Featherweight Matchup
Andy Ogle -150
Makwan Amirkhani +120
Welterweight Matchup
Kenny Robertson -110
Sultan Aliev -120
Welterweight Matchup
Albert Tumenov -145
Nico Musoke +115
Featherweight Matchup
Akira Corassani -125
Sam Sicilia -105
Check out more UFC Fight Night 59 Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!
UFC Fight Night Odds and Picks
By: Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS – UFC Fight Night comes to us Saturday night from Stockholm, Sweden, with a huge fight in the light heavyweight division between No. 1 Alexander Gustafsson and No. 3 Anthony "Rumble" Johnson (8 p.m. ET, Fox). Gustafsson is a -280 favorite, with Johnson getting about +240 odds as the underdog. This line is up from the openers, which had Gustafsson as a -220 favorite. With a win in this fight, Gustafsson will almost certainly be the next contender for a title shot against current champion Jon Jones.
Gustafsson (16-2-0) exploded on the scene back in 2013 with a close decision loss to Jones as a big underdog. He was winning going into the last two rounds but came up short on the decision after fading late. After taking out Jimi Manuwa in the second round in March last year, Gustafsson was given a rematch with Jones. Unfortunately, a torn meniscus forced him to pull out of the fight, which was scheduled to take place back in September.
At age 30, Johnson (18-4-0) has had quite an eventful career filled with highs and lows. Johnson left the UFC back in 2012 after having major problems making weight for his fights. However, he has reinvented himself, and has never looked as good as he does coming into this huge bout.
Johnson has reeled off eight straight victories, including wins in Titan FC, the World Series of Fighting and his last two back in the UFC. Those two wins were over very tough opponents. The first was a decision over highly-ranked Phil Davis and the second was a first-round stoppage of Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.
We like Gustafsson to get the win here in his homeland of Sweden. But this is no easy spot. If the line keeps drifting higher, which it might by fight time, the value will have completely vanished.
We’re taking Gustafsson, but if this number goes over 3-to-1, it might be better to pass.
The undercard
The undercard features another big fight in the light heavyweight division between Phil Davis and Ryan Bader. Davis is a -250 favorite, with Bader getting 2-to-1 odds as the underdog.
Davis (13-2-0), ranked fifth in the division, is coming off a nice win over the always-tough Glover Teixeira and has performed better than Bader against tough opponents. Bader (19-4-0), ranked seventh, is on a three-fight win streak, but against much weaker competition.
Look for Davis to get the win in a battle of two solid wrestlers.
Also on the undercard is a middleweight fight between Gegard Mousasi and veteran Dan Henderson. Mousasi opened about a -300 favorite, but has taken the early money and is now -500. Henderson is getting +400 as the underdog.
Mousasi (35-5-2) has been around quite a while but is only 29 and very much in his prime. Henderson (30-12-0), however, has lost four of his last five fights and is nearing the end of his great career at age 44.
We like Mousasi in this fight, but the value has dried up to the point where Henderson might be worth a shot. He possesses tremendous power in his right hand, and if he can land a shot like the one that finished Mauricio "Shogun" Rua back in March of last year, he could pull the upset.
We like Mousasi but won't argue with someone making a play on Henderson, especially if this line keeps going higher.
UFC On FOX 14 Picks
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Alexander 'The Mauler' Gustafsson and Anthony 'Rumble' Johnson are set to collide Saturday night in the main event of the UFC on FOX 14 show at the Tele2 Arena in Stockholm, Sweden. The winner will get the next shot at Jon Jones's light-heavyweight belt at some point this summer.
As of Thursday, most betting shops had Gustafsson installed as a -270 favorite against Johnson, who is +220 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $220). The 'over/under' is 2.5 rounds ('under' +125, 'over' -155). The bout is scheduled for five rounds.
Gustafsson (16-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC) is best known for giving Jones the toughest fight of his career, an epic five-round scrap that the champ pulled out by winning the fourth and fifth rounds after the 28-year-old Swede dominated the second and third. Since then, Gustafsson handed Jimi Manuwa his first career loss by second-round knockout in the main event at UFC Fight Night 37 in London.
After earning the win over Manuwa, 'The Mauler' was scheduled for a rematch with Jones. However, he had to pull out due to an injury. Now he must take on Johnson, who has opened eyes in his second UFC stint with a pair of easy wins over Phil Davis and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.
Johnson (18-4 MMA, 9-4 UFC) has won eight in a row and hasn't tasted defeat since January of 2012 when he was submitted by Vitor Belfort at UFC 142. Johnson fought at welterweight in his first tour of duty with the promotion. But after missing weight again against Belfort in a middleweight clash, the UFC released him.
That wakeup call has Johnson at his best and with a win over Gustafsson, 'Rumble' will one win away from capturing UFC gold.
Prediction: I think this will be Fight of the Night so if you can find a prop with decent odds, why not? This has all the makings of a stand-up war. I think Gustafsson wins, but I'm not confident enough to lay the expensive odds. Instead, I'll go 'under' 2.5 rounds for a +125 payout.
In the co-main event, Dan Henderson (30-12 MMA, 7-6 UFC) drops down to 185 to take on Gegard Mousasi, who has been tabbed as a -525 favorite. 'Hendo' is +410 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $410).
Henderson has lost four of his last five fights, but we should note that two of those defeats came by split decision. However, he was completely overmatched in his last Octagon appearance when he was choked out by Daniel Cormier in a lopsided affair. Two fights ago, Henderson beat Shogun Rua by third-round knockout. The veteran mixed martial artist is now 44 years old and needs a strong performance in this spot. Mousasi (35-5-2 MMA, 2-2 UFC) is coming off a third-round submission loss to Jacare Souza. He owns UFC wins over Mark Munoz and Ilir Latifi.
Prediction: I like Mousasi to win but he's way too expensive. I'll pass.
In a crucial light-heavyweight showdown, wrestlers Ryan 'Darth' Bader and Phil 'Mr. Wonderful' Davis will square off. Davis is a -235 favorite, while Bader is a +195 underdog.
Bader (18-4 MMA, 11-4 UFC) has won three in a row and four of his last five. The lone defeat in this stretch came in a KO loss to Glover Teixeira. The perennial Top-10 fighter is in dire need of a quality victory if he ever wants to entertain thoughts of a serious push toward a title shot.
But when Bader has faced top-tier opponents, he has come up short like in losses to Jon Jones and Lyoto Machida. His best career wins have come over Ovince St. Preux, Little Nog and Rampage Jackson.
Davis (13-2-0-1 MMA, 9-2-0-1 UFC) also needs this victory in the worst way. He is closer to a potential title shot than Bader. The former Penn St. wrestler is off a unanimous-decision win over Teixeira at UFC 179.
Davis's two career setbacks came at the hands of Rashad Evans and Anthony Johnson, who dominated Davis at UFC 172.
Prediction: The 'over' is the play but there's a -275 price tag attached to it, making it unplayable for me. I'm not against a small play on Bader if the underdog odds remain as generous as +190 or better. Both fighters are great wrestlers, but I have to give Davis a slight edge in that department. But I think Bader is (by far) the better striker, so he has that potential way to win that's not in Davis's repertoire.