The Ultimate Fighter Finale Odds and Pick
By: Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS – The Ultimate Fighter Finale comes to us Friday night from Las Vegas, Nevada, with an interesting fight in the featherweight division between 10th-ranked Jeremy Stephens and 14th-ranked Charles Oliveira (10 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1). Stephens is a slight -120 favorite, with Oliveira getting even-money as the underdog.
At 28, Stephens (23-10-0) has taken on many of the top fighters in the lighter divisions of MMA. However, he has never been able to get that one big win that could vault him into title contention. He had a chance to take the leap in June when he fought highly-rated Cub Swanson, but did very little in a lopsided unanimous-decision loss.
Friday night’s fight is another chance for Stephens to get back in the top ten. Although Oliveira is ranked 14th, he has been regarded as a top prospect for a long time. Stephens has been in with some top lighter-weight fighters, holding his own in most of them. The most notable was a split-decision loss to current lightweight champion Anthony Pettis.
Stephens is a tough fighter who has been finished by strikes only once is his career, by veteran Yves Edwards back in 2012. Look for Stephens to press the action against the more passive and technical Oliveira.
Oliveira (18-4-0) won his first 14 fights, and was one of the rising stars in the UFC when he was submitted by Jim Miller back in 2010. Losses to Swanson, Donald Cerrone and Frankie Edgar, all top fighters, have taken some of the luster off Oliveira. A loss Friday night could drop him even further down the ladder in the competitive featherweight division.
Oliveira does have two nice submission wins this year, but those were against much weaker competition than he'll face in Stephens. Oliveira has lots of potential, and has time to right the ship since he's only 25 years old. However, there seems to be a lack of aggressiveness in his fights against top guys.
Usually, we favor the fighter with a wider variety of skills, like Oliveira. That's just not the case here. This price is pretty low on Stephens, and Oliveira might be getting a little too much respect by the betting market, as he often has in the past. Remember, Stephens was on a nice three-fight win streak of his own before his loss to Swanson, but we'll give him a pass on that one.
Look for Jeremy Stephens to get the win and maybe even a finish over Charles Oliveira on Friday night.