US Open betting trends: Tiger's price has value
By Frank Doyle
There’s an unusual look to this weekend’s US Open. Normally, in events where Tiger Woods is playing, he’s a prohibitively short price and then the field is maybe 10 points back.
This year, Tiger is the clear favorite at +175, then there’s separation to Phil Mickelson at +1200 and then another gap to the field at +2000 or better. In the first few days of the week we saw some early support for Jim Furyk and had to drop his price to +1800 as a result. Other than that the pattern is the same – Tiger, then Mickelson then the rest.
The money we’ve taken on Mickelson is easy enough to understand. He’s always been popular and he’s shown he can win on the big stage. People like to root for him, especially with the battle his wife is going through, so putting a few bucks on him to win the US Open is a way that bettors can show their support.
The current pattern of Tiger then Phil and then the field is unusual and perhaps a reflection of the two players’ popularity and ability. The odds reflect the public’s support of these two well-known golfers. People are people, not machines. We have to allow for that.
Tiger’s short price is a little surprising. Of course, +175 was an unheard of price before Woods joined the tour, but this price as low for we’ve listed him in past events. He isn’t attracting support because of press coverage saying he hasn’t been the same since his knee operation last year.
I don’t know what it is these critics expect him to do, apart from walk on water maybe, but I do know +175 is a big price for Tiger.
We’re seeing some bets for Retief Goosen at +4000. Goosen is a previous winner and experience counts. Harrington is +4000 also but the Irishman is having a rotten year. His countryman, Rory McIlroy, made the cover of Sports Illustrated earlier this year, but he isn’t attracting the action he once did.
Because the Bethpage course is so large and punishing, the winner will probably be decided by who makes the fewest mistakes. Nobody in golf has more intestinal fortitude than Tiger. I expect him to be US Open champion again on Sunday.