Spieth made Texas 'chalk'
By Sportsbook.ag
Tournament: Valero Texas Open
Date: Mar. 26 - Mar. 29
Venue: TPC San Antonio
Location: San Antonio, TX
The tour heads to San Antonio Thursday, as the players gear up for the Valero Texas Open. With the “Florida Swing” over after a group of extremely exciting tournaments, the members turn their mindset to the Masters as they have just two Texas events before going to Augusta. The first of the two is this tournament, a mainstay on the tour which was originally named the Texas Open when it was first established back in 1922. They haven’t played too long at TPC San Antonio though, with the first tourney there coming in 2010 where scores in the single-digits have earned a victory over the five seasons.
Last year, Australian Steven Bowditch was able to outlast the field with a score of eight-under despite a final round 76 and was the second player from down under (Adam Scott) to win since the move to this course. The field will remain quite tough this week, being led by Valspar Championship winner, Jordan Spieth, and includes one other top-10 player in Dustin Johnson. There will also be another 11 players from the top-30 in the Official World Golf Rankings; including current FedEx Cup leader Jimmy Walker.
Let’s now highlight some players who could make an impact this week.
Golfers to Bet:
Jordan Spieth (15/2): Spieth will be playing in his home state of Texas once again, a place where he has yet to finish in the top-five, but he should be considered a front-runner to take home the trophy this week after his masterful performance at the Valspar Championship. Last year he carded a 10th-place here, earning most of his scoring on the weekend when he shot four-under despite hitting fewer than 60% of GIR and fairways. His putting is what earned him his win two weeks ago and he has a mark of 0.568 strokes gained putting (23rd on tour) as he ranks third on tour in total strokes gained on the field (1.854). Spieth will win someday in the Lone Star State and his recent play could very well get him there this week.
Zach Johnson (26/1): It seems as if Johnson loves playing in the Texas Open despite where it is being played as he was the victor in back-to-back years (2008, 2009) before the move to this course where he has played twice and earned a sixth-place in last season’s installment. He managed to shoot par or better in each round and was in red numbers (-1) on the short holes throughout the week. This year has not been too outstanding for him with more missed cuts (3) in eight events than he had all of last year, but he is riding the momentum of a 68-66 weekend at Bay Hill and currently has one of the more accurate drivers (68.5%, 18th on tour) this year. The 11-time PGA tour victor is a strong candidate to have a tremendous showing in San Antonio.
Matt Jones (45/1): It seems like Aussies like this course and with Jones’ recent strong play he could be in line for his second straight year with a win in Texas after taking the Shell Houston Open last season. He’s been hot this season with nine cuts made in 10 outings and has a top-15 finish in each of his past three events with the best being last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he got third behind rounds of 65-67-68 to finish out the event. His short game has aided him in getting these solid results as he ranks in the top-50 in strokes gained putting (0.54, 24th on tour), sand save percentage (60.53%, 30th on tour) and scrambling (62.66%, 46th on tour). Jones is streaking and it would be smart to grab him while he is playing at the top of his game.
Daniel Summerhays (65/1): Summerhays has never been much of a threat and has yet to earn his first PGA win, but is playing some strong golf this year with just two missed cuts in his 13 events; including playing on the weekend in each of the past five. He is a very solid putter (0.578 strokes gained putting, 22nd on tour) and has been great on par-4’s this year (3.99 average, 22nd on tour), both of which should play well at TPC San Antonio. That is evident with his past three showings here, each being a top-30 and improving each season as last year he was able to throw up a score of seven-under and rank second behind Steven Bowditch. This is the perfect venue for the 31-year-old to earn his first career win on the biggest stage in the game.
Jon Curran (350/1): The rookie class this year has been exceptional with 10 different first-year players ranking amongst the top-100 of the FedEx Cup standings and Curran is in that group as he is 67th with three top-10 finishes to his name. Two of those came in his past five outings and included a tie for second in Puerto Rico. He is a big risk with seven cuts through 13 tournaments, but he has maintained an accurate driver (67.6%, 26th on tour) and can scramble (64%, 30th on tour) with the best of them. Nick Taylor was the first rookie to earn a win this year, but Curran has one in his future and could come up firing in Texas.
Valero Texas Open Betting Odds - Provided by Sportsbook.ag
Jordan Spieth 15/2
Dustin Johnson 17/2
Jim Furyk 22/1
Jimmy Walker 22/1
Matt Kuchar 23/1
Zach Johnson 26/1
Martin Kaymer 28/1
Phil Mickelson 30/1
Ryan Palmer 30/1
Harris English 35/1
Kevin Na 35/1
Martin Laird 35/1
Billy Horschel 40/1
Brendan Steele 40/1
Brendon Todd 40/1
Jason Kokrak 40/1
Charley Hoffman 45/1
Matt Jones 45/1
Matt Every 50/1
Daniel Berger 55/1
Sean O' Hair 55/1
Jason Dufner 60/1
Charles Howell III 65/1
Daniel Summerhays 65/1
Gary Woodland 65/1
Graeme McDowell 65/1
Justin Thomas 65/1
Shane Lowry 65/1
Chris Kirk 70/1
Nick Watney 70/1
Russell Knox 70/1
Graham Delaet 75/1
Will MacKenzie 80/1
Shawn Stefani 90/1
Freddie Jacobson 95/1
Francesco Molinari 100/1
Brian Harman 120/1
Cameron Tringale 120/1
Camilo Villegas 120/1
Pat Perez 120/1
Kevin Chappell 130/1
Scott Piercy 140/1
Danny Lee 150/1
Sangmoon Bae 150/1
Alex Cejka 160/1
Carlos Ortiz 160/1
John Huh 160/1
Marc Warren 160/1
Boo Weekley 180/1
Bryce Molder 180/1
David Lingmerth 180/1
George McNeill 180/1
James Hahn 180/1
Retief Goosen 180/1
Seung yul Noh 180/1
Steven Bowditch 180/1
Geoff Ogilvy 190/1
John Peterson 200/1
John Senden 200/1
K.J. Choi 200/1
Martin Flores 200/1
Scott Stallings 200/1
William McGirt 200/1
Aaron Baddeley 220/1
Bo Van Pelt 220/1
Chris Stroud 220/1
Hudson Swafford 220/1
Jeff Overton 220/1
Luke Guthrie 220/1
Robert Garrigus 220/1
Zac Blair 220/1
Scott Brown 240/1
Andres Gonzales 250/1
Andrew Loupe 250/1
Ben Curtis 250/1
Carl Pettersson 250/1
Jhonattan Vegas 250/1
Lucas Glover 250/1
Michael Putnam 250/1
Nicholas Thompson 250/1
Tony Finau 250/1
Chesson Hadley 300/1
D.A. Points 300/1
Michael Thompson 300/1
Spencer Levin 300/1
Troy Merritt 300/1
Alex Prugh 350/1
Andrew Svoboda 350/1
Billy Hurley III 350/1
Blayne Barber 350/1
Brian Davis 350/1
Chad Campbell 350/1
J.J. Henry 350/1
Johnson Wagner 350/1
Jon Curran 350/1
Ken Duke 350/1
Kevin Kisner 350/1
Kyle Reifers 350/1
Ricky Barnes 350/1
Scott Pinckney 350/1
Andres Romero 400/1
Max Homa 400/1
Steve Wheatcroft 400/1
Chad Collins 450/1
Derek Ernst 450/1
Derek Fathauer 450/1
Jim Herman 450/1
Justin Leonard 450/1
S.J. Park 450/1
Justin Hicks 500/1
Valero Texas Open Preview and Picks
By Matt Fargo
Playbook.com
The tour leaves the Florida swing following Matt Every's second consecutive win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and heads to Texas at another difficult venue. The Valero Texas Open takes place this week from the AT&T Oaks Course in San Antonio. This is the sixth year that the Oaks will host this event and the second straight year that it falls into the same part of the schedule following Bay Hill and preceding the Shell Houston Open.
Last year, the Oaks was the fourth difficult in non-majors for a second straight year, was the toughest venue to hit greens and tied for toughest in par five scoring and the 7,435-yard layout is expected to play difficult again this year. This is a shotmakers course and that is proven with the way the par fives are played. The scoring average on those holes last year came in at just under par for the third straight year and when players can't score on par fives, they aren't going to score much of anywhere else.
With just five years played here, it is difficult to look at how players have fared in this event and that means a lot of the past history prior to that from La Cantera can be tossed away. However, this is still in Texas and Texas golf is still in effect so those who can hit through wind and keep the ball low will be rewarded. Temperatures will be moderate and lots of sun for the weekend is forecasted. This Greg Norman designed layout emphasizes ball striking while distance is a plus as well.
OWGR No. 6 Jordan Spieth and No. 9 Dustin Johnson head a lineup that features 13 of the top 30 players in the world playing this week. Spieth and Johnson are the big favorites this week at +750 and +850 respectively but looking at recent history shows big names do not always win here. Case in point, Steven Bowditch last year as he survived a Sunday 76 to win by one shot over Will McKenzie for his first ever PGA Tour win. Bowditch is +24,500 this year.
With Spieth and Johnson huge favorites, we get value down the line including Jimmy Walker (+2,300). He has made just one start over the last month and his best start over his last three events is a T21. This after a T2 at the Hyundai and a win at the Sony. He is from Texas so he knows the territory and has a solid track record here including a T3 in 2010 when he was not nearly as good as he is now.
Ryan Palmer (+3,300) is another Texan who can get around here. He is having a very solid season as with the exception of a missed cut at Pebble Beach, he has placed in the top 25 in every other start. He finished T12 at the Cadillac in his last start which came three starts after a playoff loss in Phoenix. His T56 here last year was skewed by an 82 on Sunday and he has just one missed cut in five starts at the Oaks.
Brendan Steele (+4,500) has been playing very well of late as he has made the weekend in 14 straight starts and while his T35 last week was average, a Sunday 76 was the problem. He has gotten progressively worse here the last four years at the Oaks but going from a win in 2011 to a T4 in 2012, that isn't that bad. He did miss the cut last year but has been a lot more consistent this season.
Jason Kokrak (+5,500) was very impressive again last week as he was in contention at Bay Hill but could nothing going Sunday, finishing with 12 straight pars to close T6. This came after a T7 at the Valspar so he is playing his best golf of the year and he has done pretty well his in his last two starts with a T15 and a T31 the last two years, the latter marred by a Saturday 77. His Sunday 70 was tied for third lowest.
Charley Hoffman (+6,000) has not been in his best form after a great start to the season that included a win and a runner-up but we can not pass on him here. He is one of three players in the field that has made the cut in all five years at the Oaks and he has the lowest scoring average of them all at 70.45. His worst finish here is a T13 and he has a pair of top 3's so this is the best place for a bounce back.
We are making it a six-pack this week as we have to add another longshot with Freddie Jacobson (+11,000). Like Hoffman, he is one of three players to have made the cut the last five years and he hasn't finished lower than 18th since the tournament moved to TPC San Antonio in 2010. His form coming in is spotty but the odds reflect that and what a win it would be for his second career PGA Tour title.
Recommended Tournament Win Six Pack at the Valero Texas Open - All for 1 Unit
Jimmy Walker (+2,300)
Ryan Palmer (+3,300)
Brendan Steele (+4,500)
Jason Kokrak (+5,500)
Charley Hoffman (+6,000)
Freddie Jacobson (+11,000)
2015 Record to date after 10 events: +36.5 Units