Waste Management Phoenix Open
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
Justin Thomas will be going for his third PGA TOUR victory of the year at the Waste Management Phoenix Open on Thursday. Thomas has shocked the world with his start to the year, as he won both the SBS Tournament of Champions and the Sony Open in Hawaii earlier in January. Thomas skipped last week’s Famers Insurance Open, but he has done plenty to make a name for himself early on. Once known strictly for being Jordan Spieth’s good friend, Thomas is currently first in the FedExCup standings. Spieth will be joining him in this field, though. So will Hideki Matsuyama, who won last year’s tournament. Matsuyama shot a 14-under to win this last year, defeating runner-up Rickie Fowler in a playoff. Other noteworthy members of this tournament field would be John Rahm, Ryan Moore, Rickie Fowler, Brooks Koepka, Bubba Watson, Patrick Reed and Phil Mickelson. Mickelson is tied for the most ever career wins in this tournament with three, and will be hoping to earn that coveted fourth victory on Sunday. For those looking for Tiger Woods, he'll be playing in the Dubai Desert Classic this week. With that being said, let’s now take a look at some of the best values for this weekend’s event:
Justin Thomas (9-to-1) - As previously mentioned, Thomas has already won two TOUR events this season. Not only did he win those events, but he absolutely dominated them as well. Thomas shattered records in those two tournaments, and it’s just very difficult to go against the hot hand this weekend. Thomas is swinging the club better than any of his competitors right now, and he’s receiving some very favorable odds heading into Thursday. Putting a unit on him at 9-to-1 would pay out very nicely, and there’s a very good chance he’s at least near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Hideki Matsuyama (10-to-1) - Matsuyama won the Hero World Challenge in early December and followed that tournament up with a second place finish at the SBS Tournament of Champions in early January. He has, however, struggled the past two tournaments, finishing worse than top-25 in both of those events. Still, Matsuyama seems like he is ready to bounce back and compete this weekend. He won this event a year ago, and that should give him the confidence to play at a high level. The 10-to-1 odds he is getting are also rather intriguing.
Phil Mickelson (30-to-1) - Mickelson has played some solid golf in recent weeks, combining to shoot a score of -18 at the CareerBuilder Challenge and the Farmers Insurance Open. The fact that he has looked sharp coming into this event is only a plus, as he was already going to be one of the more confident players out here this weekend. Mickelson has won the Waste Management Phoenix Open three times in his career, and he knows that he still has what it takes to win here. Mickelson is not around simply to play golf. He wants to win tournaments, and this one represents one of his best opportunities of the year.
Keegan Bradley (50-to-1) - When looking for a dark horse for this event, Bradley is definitely a guy that sticks out. He was excellent at last week’s Farmers Insurance Open, shooting a nine-under to finish the tournament tied for fourth place. Bradley has always been a very talented player, so perhaps this is the confidence boost he needed to really take off this season. Putting a half-unit on him could be one of the better decisions you’ll make this year.
Waste Management Phoenix Open Preview
BY Matt Fargo
Covers.com
The PGA Tour leaves California and heads to Arizona for the Waste Management Phoenix Open, played at TPC Scottsdale. This is the eighth year for sponsor Waste Management and the goal remains to be the "Greatest Show on Grass". This is the most attended event on tour with the par three 16th hole rivaling some of the best parties around and it has become very popular among the players. Last year, the tournament set three attendance records, including a total of 618,365 spectators for the week.
TPC Scottsdale is not an overly tough test as it is a fair layout that presents little trouble but precision is of the utmost importance. Winning scores have been between -14 and -18 in eight of the last nine years with the lone exception being in 2013 when Phil Mickelson won with a 256 (-28). 10 players finished -17 or better as the course played remarkably easy and ironically, it was the year that the course was lengthened to try and make it more difficult.
As each year goes on, the field gets stronger and that is the case again this year. 13 of the top 30 players in the world are teeing it up highlighted by defending champion Hideki Matsuyama (5) and Jordan Spieth (6). The other 11 players inside the top 30 are Justin Thomas (8 ), Patrick Reed (9), Bubba Watson (12), Rickie Fowler (14), Russell Knox (18 ), Brooks Koepka (19), Phil Mickelson (20), Matt Kuchar (21), Emiliano Grillo (27), Ryan Moore (28 ), and Louis Oosthuizen (29).
Course history is a big factor to look at as there are many players in the field that have had success here over numerous starts. Those players have a lot in common as most are exceptional ball strikers which brings us back to the precision needed. Hitting greens is the top priority because the green complexes are very challenging as misses will bring in some tough bunkers, thick rough and false front runoffs making scrambling another key statistic going into the week.
While the winning score by Mickelson in 2013 was an aberration, so was his four shot win over Brandt Snedeker. In the other nine years since 2007, the winner won by just one stroke including four being decided by a playoff. This includes Matsuyama winning in a playoff over Rickie Fowler last year with the others being J.B. Holmes over Mickelson in 2008, Kenny Perry over Charley Hoffman in 2009 and Mark Wilson over Jason Dufner in 2011.
Despite being the defending champion and dominating this course in three starts, Hideki Matsuyama (+1,000) is not the favorite this week as that distinction goes to Jordan Spieth (+860). Justin Thomas, who has won his last two starts, is next at +1,200 followed by the winner from last week at the Famers Insurance Open, John Rahm at +2,000. It is a crowded bunch after that with Patrick Reed, Phil Mickelson, Ryan Moore, Brooks Koepka, Bubba Watson and Rickie Fowler priced between +2,500 and +3,000.