What Bettors Need to Know: Germany vs. Spain
By MICHAEL DA SILVA
Before the World Cup, Spain would have been such hot favourites going into a clash with Germany that there would be little point backing them. What a difference three weeks makes.
The Germans are now considered as tournament favourites in many quarters, and rightly so. As coach Joachim Low said on the weekend, Spain’s style of play is “a celebration of football”. But, as we’ve seen already, style doesn’t always win over substance...
Game strategy
The major blow to the Germans is the loss of the unstoppable young forward Thomas Muller, who is suspended after picking up a yellow card against Argentina, meaning Mario Gomez, Cacau and Piotr Trochowski are all in the frame to replace Muller, the wunderkind on the right side of attack.
Muller leads the Germans not just in goals but also assists with four apiece and will be a big miss. However, Germany have a number of capable understudies.
Spain are likely to field the same side that edged past Paraguay in Saturday’s quarter-final, but their display was far from convincing. Despite having a squad so strong that the likes of Fabregas and Navas are bench warmers, they are yet to hit the fluid top form that saw them crowned European Champions spectacularly in 2008.
Spain will no doubt control possession but, given how devastating Germany have been on the counter attack, they will neglect their defensive responsibilities at their peril. A side that can tear apart teams like England and Argentina with such ease, are more than able to rip to shreds the side they lost to in the final of the European Championships with the same ruthless simplicity.
Germany coach Joachim Low has given an insight this week into how he hopes to dismantle Spain as they have England and Argentina.
"Spain make almost no mistakes but we have to force them into making errors. We have to keep them under constant pressure. Spain are very strong as a unit, both in attack and in defence, and have several players who can decide games,” Low told reporters.
“Tactically they are very good. Their passing game is a celebration of football and how easy they make it look is a model for me. But, at the moment, we are capable of beating everyone."
Meanwhile, Spain’s David Villa is in confident mood ahead of the clash.
"We beat Germany two years ago in the final, and I wouldn't have thought they'd be happy to meet us again," Villa said. "But we have to forget about that game. Without a World Cup (win), it's like we've achieved nothing."
Players to watch
Germany – Miroslav Klose
Klose’s role, simply, is to be as deadly as possible in front of goal. At three World Cups he’s found the net 14 times – putting him one goal short of Ronaldo’s all-time record. In Germany’s current system, Klose benefits from having the service of Muller on the right, Podolski on the left and Ozil just behind him, meaning his clinical finishing ability it utilised – even against teams as revered as the Spanish. Klose is as deadly as they come and should always be backed to score.
Spain – Xavi
Germany are yet to face a playmaker as intelligent, patient and supremely accurate as Xavi. The Barcelona midfielder may be expected to sit in a deeper position, protecting Spain against those blistering Germany breakaways but in possession, few players at this World Cup are capable of having such a profound influence on a game. Should be backed for an assist.
Know your enemy
These two last met in the final of the European Championships in 2008, when Spain were the better side and celebrated a deserved 1-0 victory thanks to a neat finish from Fernando Torres. Two years on, Torres in misfiring and Germany are a different team.
Just five players remain from the first choice XI of just two years ago compared to Spain’s eight, with Germany having replaced the deadwood with their blossoming youngsters.
Stat attack
All 14 of Miroslav Klose's World Cup goals have come in open play and been scored from inside the box. Half of them have been headers.
Spain had scored all 14 of their penalties (excluding shootouts) at the World Cup before this tournament, but have missed both in 2010.
Paul the Octopus, the psychic sensation of this World Cup, has picked Spain to win on Wednesday and reach their first World Cup final. However, before you all go placing bets on the Spanish it should be noted that Paul has only ever predicted one result incorrectly – Germany’s 1-0 defeat to, yes Spain, in the final of Euro 2008.