Will Barcelona get upset?
By Bodog
UEFA Champions League Semifinals
The newest celebrity in European club soccer is named Eyjafjallajokull – better known in these parts as “the Icelandic volcano” that’s wreaking havoc on air travel across the continent.
Roughly seven million passengers have been stranded by delayed flights, including the members of F.C. Barcelona, the heavy 2-3 favorites to win the 2010 Champions League on the soccer futures market. They had to travel to Italy by bus to face Inter Milan (4-1) on Tuesday in the first leg of their semifinal. As we went to press, it was believed Lyon (7-1) would also travel by road to take on Bayern Munich (9-2) in the other semifinal on Wednesday.
Most Barcelona officials are downplaying the effects of having to travel from Spain to Italy – with an overnight stop in Cannes. The press did find one man, technical secretary Txiki Begiristain, who was willing to call a spade a spade. “Something should have been done not to give this advantage to the home team,” Begiristain told reporters even as he denied the players were fatigued from their journey.
This volcanic intrusion definitely hands some soccer betting value to the home side in both semifinals. Inter needs all the help it can get to defeat Barcelona, preferably without allowing the defending champions to score a valuable away goal – the key tiebreaker in the event of an even score after both legs are complete. Here’s a look at the four remaining teams in the Champions League and their recent form. Note that betting the draw straight across the board would have made you a profit on all four teams over the past three games.
Barcelona
26 wins, one loss, six draws in the Spanish Primera Division (first place)
April 17: Barcelona 0, Espanyol 0 (draw: +400)
April 14: Deportivo LaCoruna 0, Barcelona 3 (home: -800)
April 10: Barcelona 2, Real Madrid 0 (away: +170)
The three-time Champions League champions are enjoying tremendous success in their second year under coach Josep Guardiola, who led Barca to a rare “sextuple” title run in 2009 (including the Copa del Rey, the UEFA Super Cup and the FIFA Club World Cup). This team is stacked with prodigious talents like midfielder Lionel Messi (27 goals in 30 games) and striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic (15 goals in 25 games). Barcelona are +130 to defeat Inter on the “three outcomes” betting line and –150 when removing the draw from the equation.
Inter Milan
20-4-10 in the Italian Serie A (second place)
April 16: Juventus 0, Inter 2 (home: -175)
April 10: Inter 2, Fiorentina 2 (draw: +220)
April 6: Inter 1, CSKA Moskow 0 (away: +125)
The key to Inter’s recent success is coach Jose Mourinho’s decision to switch to a 4-2-1-3 alignment to emphasize the attack of former Barca striker Samuel Eto’o from the outside. Inter have won 10 of 14 matches with this formation, but may prefer the more conservative 4-3-1-2 at home, where Inter have allowed just one goal (to Chelsea) in nine games dating back to the end of January. The Nerazzurri (literally “The Black and Blues”) are +210 to defeat Barcelona with the draw at +220.
Lyon
16-6-11 in the French Ligue 1 (third place)
April 17: Lyon 2, Bordeaux 2 (draw: +220)
April 11: Lille 1, Lyon 1 (draw: +230)
April 7: Lyon 0, Bordeaux 1 (home: +110)
The Cinderella team of this year’s Final Four has won the Ligue 1 title seven years running, and they were somewhat fortunate to face a familiar domestic foe in the Champions League quarterfinals, beating Bordeaux 3-2 on aggregate. But Lyon earned its way into this position by upsetting Real Madrid in the Round of 16. This is an underrated side at +400 to earn the victory over Bayern.
Bayern Munich
18-4-9 in the German Bundesliga (first place)
April 17: Hannover 96 0, Bayern Munich 7 (home: -600)
April 10: Bayern Munich 1, Bayer Leverkusen 1 (draw: +250)
April 7: Bayern Munich 2, Manchester United 3 (home: -140)
Beating Manchester United in the quarterfinals was a feat in and of itself, as Bayern Munich scored twice at Old Trafford to advance on the away goals rule. But it’s even more impressive considering where Bayern were this fall, looking very much out of sorts in their second season under coach Louis van Gaal. But just like last year, Bayern have enjoyed a very strong second half and are heavy –145 favorites to win this match at the Allianz Arena. The draw is priced at +260.