Wimbledon Picks, Odds & Predictions
By T. Wilkinson
Bangthebook.com
Wimbledon begins on Monday with Roger Federer favored on the men’s side, while Karolina Pliskova is favored on the women’s side. It is all about the big four with the men, with Federer the favorite, defending champion and No. 1 seed Andy Murray the second choice, French Open winner Rafael Nadal the third choice, and three-time winner Novak Djokovic the fourth choice. It is wide open on the women’s side with Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova not playing. Pliskova is the 4-1 favorite but there are 11 players listed with odds of 20-1 or less.
Wimbledon begins on Monday, July 3 at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in London, England and runs through Sunday, July 16 with Roger Federer favored on the men’s side and Karolina Pliskova favored on the women’s side.
Men’s Wimbledon Odds
Roger Federer 9-5
Andy Murray 3.5-1
Rafael Nadal 4-1
Novak Djokovic 6-1
Milos Raonic 16-1
Alexander Zverev 16-1
Marin Cilic 16-1
Nick Kyrgios 25-1
Stan Wawrinka 25-1
Grigor Dimitrov 33-1
Dominic Thiem 33-1
Juan Martin del Potro 50-1
Feliciano Lopez 50-1
Kei Nishikori 66-1
Jo-Wilfred Tsonga 66-1
Tomas Berdych 66-1
Lucas Pouille 66-1
Top Contenders
The men’s side is all about the big four. Murray is the top seed but he is not the favorite. Murray won this event in 2013 and last year but he hasn’t really played that well in 2017. He did make the semifinals of the French Open but he didn’t play well at Queen’s. He is overvalued at odds of 3.5-1 but he still has the talent to win.
The second seed is Djokovic which shows you just how screwed up the seedings are at Wimbledon as they don’t have to follow the current rankings; they can do what they want. Djokovic has won this event three times but he has not played well in 2017, as he is in the worst slump of his career. There is no reason to think he turns things around at Wimbledon.
The third seed is Federer and he is the betting favorite. He has won Wimbledon seven times and he is in very good form. He didn’t play the French Open but looked really good in winning Halle. There is no reason to think Federer won’t win this year.
Nadal is the fourth seed and he is coming off his French Open win. He won Wimbledon in 2008 and in 2010 and he is a real threat to win again, as his form is better than either Murray or Djokovic’s.
There are no other real threats to the big four, as it is hard to see Stan Wawrinka, Alexander Zverev, Dominic Thiem, Milos Raonic or Marin Cilic winning Wimbledon this year.
Women’s Wimbledon Odds
Karolina Pliskova 4-1
Petra Kvitova 6-1
Garbine Muguruza 10-1
Johanna Konta 11-1
Venus Williams 12-1
Jelena Ostapenko 14-1
Angelique Kerber 16-1
Victoria Azarenka 16-1
Coco Vandeweghe 18-1
Simona Halep 18-1
Madison Keys 20-1
Elina Svitolina 25-1
Kristina Mladenovic 28-1
Agnieszka Radwanska 33-1
Anett Kontaveit 33-1
Ashleigh Barty 33-1
Caroline Wozniacki 33-1
Dominika Cibulkova 40-1
Ana Konjuh 50-1
Darya Kasatkina 50-1
Eugenie Bouchard 50-1
Lucie Safarova 50-1
Timea Bacsinszky 50-1
A Pavlyuchenkova 70-1
Belinda Bencic 70-1
Caroline Garcia 70-1
Ekaterina Makarova 70-1
Sabine Lisicki 70-1
Sloane Stephens 70-1
Elena Vesnina 75-1
Kristyna Pliskova 75-1
Svetlana Kuznetsova 75-1
Kiki Bertens 85-1
Top Contenders
The only two players listed at single-digit odds are Pliskov and Kvitova but it is hard to get that excited about taking either of them. Kvitova is a two-time Wimbledon champion but she said recently to the Times of India that she should not be one of the favorites. “Maybe the last tournament changed something in people’s minds but not in mine. I’m really enjoying every match but, still, I think I do have lot of things to improve.” “I showed myself that I can play five matches in six days, but now I need a bit to relax to be ready. I know how tough it is to win a grand slam, so I’m not really seeing myself as one of the favorites right now.” Kvitova is seeded No. 11 but she has the ability to win Wimbledon if she is fully healthy.
Pliskova is seeded No. 3 and she is the current betting favorite. The problem with taking her is that her best result at Wimbledon is a second round finish. Perhaps this will be her year with Williams and Sharapova not playing.
Angelique Kerber is the top-ranked player in the world but she is getting no respect in the betting at odds of 16-1. She finished second last year at Wimbledon but this year she has done nothing. Simona Halep is ranked second in the world but her best result at Wimbledon was making the semis in 2014.
You can make a decent case for a longshot to win including Venus Williams, Johanna Konta, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Jelena Ostapenko, Garbine Muguruza, and Victoria Azarenka.
Wimbledon Predictions
I think Federer is the clear choice on the men’s side even at odds of 9-5, although I do think Nadal has some value at odds of 4-1. The women’s side is a mess, as you could make a case for 15 or 20 players. Kvitova is probably the best choice at odds of 6-1 but I will take two longshots and go with Muguruza at odds of 10-1 and Azarenka at odds of 16-1.
Wimbledon Betting Preview: Men to Watch And Wager On
Covers.com
The last time Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal shared the first two major tournaments of the season was way back in 2010. Roger Federer is the favorite to take his eighth Wimbledon crown and with his main opposition in disarray, it seems foolish to oppose the 35-year-old Swiss maestro.
Covers Experts’ Tennis Insiders break down the candidates chasing the title in SW19.
Favorite: Roger Federer (+225)
This price has already shot in from +300 less than a week ago, and while Federer has regained his grass court pedigree with his ninth title in Halle last week, this price is quite short for a 35 year old contesting a major. Much will depend on the form and fitness of Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, with both players reeling from an exhausting 2016 season.
Federer will be No.3 seed at this event and he should come through the first week unscathed. Two key elements led to his Australian Open victory: Serve and backhand. These two elements had let him down in three consecutive Grand Slam final defeats to Novak Djokovic across 2014 and 2015 before a revitalised, ultra-aggressive gameplan yielded major rewards this season.
Grass courts have plenty of uneven and skidding bounces so one-handed backhands can struggle on the surface, but Federer must continue to attack and neutralise the weakness opponents will aim to target.
Underdog to watch: Andy Murray (+333)
This might not seem like a great price for an underdog, but this is Murray’s home event and a rekindling of form has to be anticipated. Losing in the first round at Queen’s last week was a blow, but if he comes into the tournament fresh and injury free, he’ll have time to settle into rhythm like he did in Paris, where he reached the semifinal without playing his peak level.
Ivan Lendl is in the coaching corner and their partnership has blossomed at this event. Murray has played much better tennis since capturing his first Wimbledon title, taking some of the relentless home crowd pressure off his shoulders.
He’s a two-time champion here and his game suits the grass, going 20-1 on the surface in the past two seasons. He’ll be top seed courtesy of Wimbledon’s different seeding system and the potential draw could see him avoiding Djokovic and Federer until the final.
Live long shot: Nick Kyrgios (+1,400)
Again, this price may seem a little short considering the enigma that is Nick Kyrgios. But if he turns up mentally and physically ready, he has the game to win the title. He’s served Novak Djokovic off the court twice this season and was a point away from beating Roger Federer in Miami.
His serve works beautifully with a low-skidding grass court. Flat serving and groundstrokes are crucial on this surface, and his game has no real technical weaknesses to be exposed on such a quick surface. His mind set is always questionable though, and perhaps waiting to see if he comes through the first week without any setbacks might be the wisest way to play the futures market.
Wimbledon Betting Preview: Women to Watch And Wager On
Covers.com
Just like the French Open, the women’s draw is completely open due to the continued absence of both Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova.
Covers Experts’ resident tennis capper Tennis Insiders, break down the candidates to lift the Venus Rosewater Dish
Favorite: Karolina Pliskova +450
The oddsmakers haven’t done much homework here. Karolina Pliskova has the height and power to hit through the grass, but this surface doesn’t allow her to move comfortably. She’s 6-foot-1 and this low-skidding surface makes it difficult for taller players to dominate, with balls constantly bouncing under their hitting range. She prefers a high-bouncing hard court, which allows her to crush forehands and backhands comfortably in the longer exchanges.
She’s never advanced past the second round at SW19 in five attempts and she’s definitely fade material in the early rounds. Don’t fall for the bookmakers’ trap – there’s no value here.
Underdog to watch: Petra Kvitova +500
The two-time champion is returning from an injury layoff that almost finished her career. Kvitova is making up for lost time as she’s already won a title on her favourite surface. Kvitova was the champion in Birmingham last week and is the WTA equivalent of Stan Wawrinka when it comes to performances both inside and outside of majors. She has the ability to get red-hot and crush anything in her path, or crash out early in a string of unforced errors.
Victories against Maria Sharapova, Venus Williams, Victoria Azarenka and Lucie Safarova on the way to winning twice at this venue shows her elite-level ball striking is unbeatable when she’s on. She’s spoken of her new “outlook on life” having being victim of a serious stabbing incident in late 2016, and lifting a third title at Wimbledon would be the fairytale story to cap off a memorable comeback. Expect money to pour in and it would be very surprising if she doesn’t open the tournament as favourite.
Live long shot: Coco Vandeweghe +1,600
We recommended Vandeweghe at +3,300 ahead of last season’s tournament, and she reached the fourth round before a tame exit to Pavlyuchenkova. She’s another player with the ability to get hot on this surface and her overall game has improved. She was a semifinalist in the 2017 Australian Open, where the quicker courts handed her a significant advantage, knocking out reigning champion Angelique Kerber.
She’s added former Wimbledon champion Pat Cash to the backroom team and she’ll prove a valuable ticket to hedge during the second week as she aims for a third consecutive visit to the Round of 16 or better at this venue.